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Forex Signals Dec 19: Payrolls, Cruises, and Banks – Paychex, Carnival, and USBC Report Earnings
Today’s earnings calendar features Paychex, Carnival, and USBC, offering investors fresh insight into U.S. labor trends, consumer travel...
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Last updated: Friday, December 19, 2025
Quick overview
- Today's earnings calendar includes Paychex, Carnival, and USBC, providing insights into U.S. labor trends, consumer travel demand, and regional banking health.
- Foreign exchange markets ended flat despite significant economic data, with the euro slightly declining due to dovish signals from the European Central Bank.
- The U.S. CPI report caused confusion among investors, as methodological issues led to skepticism about inflation figures, leaving Treasury yields unchanged.
- The Bank of England's cautious remarks led to a fading rally in sterling, highlighting ongoing concerns about potential policy easing.
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MARKETS TREND
Today’s earnings calendar features Paychex, Carnival, and USBC, offering investors fresh insight into U.S. labor trends, consumer travel demand, and the health of regional banking.
FX Markets End Flat Despite Heavy Data Calendar
Despite a busy day packed with high-impact economic releases, foreign exchange markets finished the session largely unchanged. Price action remained notably subdued, with most major currency pairs confined to ranges of 16 pips or less. The euro posted the most visible move, edging modestly lower after reports citing European Central Bank sources suggested the Governing Council is not yet ready to abandon its dovish flexibility. The comments reflected ongoing concerns about downside risks to growth heading into next year, tempering any hawkish interpretation of the ECB’s latest decision.
CPI Data Triggers Confusion Rather Than Conviction
The U.S. CPI report initially sparked a wave of uncertainty rather than a clear directional move. A significant downside surprise in both headline and core inflation figures briefly pressured the dollar, but skepticism quickly set in. Market participants focused on methodological issues, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics opted not to estimate prices for several components, instead assigning zero values for October. This marked the first full inflation report following the government shutdown, which disrupted data collection and forced the agency to rely on assumptions rather than observed prices. Reflecting this uncertainty, two-year Treasury yields were virtually unchanged on the day, even after Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee delivered a notably dovish assessment.
Sterling Rally Fades After BoE and Bailey Comments
The Bank of England’s policy decision itself came as little surprise, but sterling initially reacted positively. GBP/USD surged nearly a full cent, peaking at 1.3448 as buyers briefly took control. However, the rally proved short-lived. The pound surrendered most of its gains as the session progressed, weighed down by more cautious and dovish remarks from Governor Andrew Bailey. His comments dampened enthusiasm and reinforced the market’s view that policy easing remains firmly on the table, limiting sterling’s upside despite the early burst of optimism.
Key Market Events to Watch Today:
Today’s earnings reports will help investors gauge the health of the U.S. labor market, the durability of consumer travel demand, and the ongoing challenges facing regional banks. While Paychex may shape macro expectations, Carnival and USBC will provide more cyclical and sector-specific signals—setting the tone for risk appetite into the next trading sessions.
Key Earnings to Watch Today
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)
- Reporting: Q2 FY2026 earnings, Before Market Open (BMO)
- Expected EPS: $1.23
What to watch:
- Trends in payroll processing volumes and small-to-mid business hiring
- Client retention and growth in HR outsourcing services
- Margin resilience amid slowing labor-market momentum
Why it matters: Paychex is often viewed as a bellwether for U.S. employment conditions, making its outlook closely tied to broader economic sentiment.
Carnival Corporation & plc (CCL)
- Reporting: Q4 FY2025 earnings, Before Market Open (BMO)
- Expected EPS: $0.25
What to watch:
- Booking trends and forward demand into 2026
- Pricing power and onboard spending per passenger
- Fuel costs, debt reduction progress, and free cash flow
Why it matters: Carnival offers insight into discretionary consumer spending and travel demand, particularly among middle-income households.
USBC, Inc. (USBC)
- Reporting: Q4 FY2025 earnings, After Market Close (AMC)
- Expected EPS: -2.40
- What to watch:
- Asset quality, loan-loss provisions, and credit stress
- Capital adequacy and balance-sheet stability
- Management commentary on regional banking conditions
Why it matters: USBC’s results may reflect ongoing pressure across smaller banks facing higher funding costs and tighter credit conditions.
Gold Heads for New Records
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this month, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above $4,370K yesterday.
USD/JPY Returns Lower After the FOMC
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips as the pair found support at the 20 daily SMA (gray) and has rebounded more than 200 pips off that MA but reversed after the 25 bps rate cut from the FED.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Still Testing the 100 Weekly SMA
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down below $105,000 before finding support at the 200 daily SMA (purple) and recovering above $115,000 but then fell toward $100K again. However BTC remains supported by the 100 weekly SMA (green) and only a break below that would risk further losses.
BTC/USD – Weekly Chart
Ethereum Faces the 50 Daily SMA
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2.700 but the 200 weekly SMA held as support and we’re seeing a rebound but buyers face the 50 SMA (yellow) now.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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