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Forex Signals Dec 23: Unemployment Claims and the JBS, CODI Earnings Preview
Wednesday’s session brings a mix of closely watched Codi and JBS earnings and a fresh read on the U.S. labor market, offering investors...
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Last updated: Wednesday, December 24, 2025
Quick overview
- The U.S. economy grew at a surprising 4.3% annualized rate in Q3 2025, driven by strong consumer spending and net trade.
- Canada's economy contracted by 0.3% in October, with declines across multiple industrial sectors, particularly in manufacturing and construction.
- Key earnings reports from companies like JBS and CODI are expected to provide insights into corporate profitability and market conditions.
- Attention is focused on U.S. unemployment claims, with expectations of a slight increase that could indicate emerging softness in the labor market.
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MARKETS TREND
Wednesday’s session brings a mix of closely watched Codi and JBS earnings and a fresh read on the U.S. labor market, offering investors insight into profitability trends and economic momentum.
U.S. GDP Surprises to the Upside
Fresh data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis showed the American economy growing at a 4.3% annualized pace in Q3 2025, well above market expectations near 3.3%. The figure confirms that economic momentum remained strong through the late summer period.
The main driver was consumer spending, which continued to underpin growth as households maintained solid demand. Net trade also supported the headline number, helped by firm exports and a decline in imports, while government spending provided an additional, though smaller, boost. Overall, the report reinforced the view that the U.S. economy entered the final quarter of the year on a firm footing.
Canada’s Economy Contracts in October
In contrast, Canada’s economic picture weakened. October GDP fell by 0.3%, undershooting expectations for a 0.2% decline and reversing September’s modest expansion. The contraction was broad-based, with more than half of industrial sectors posting declines.
Both goods-producing and services-producing industries moved lower, led by a sharp drop in manufacturing, which erased the previous month’s gains. Weakness was also evident in mining and energy, particularly oil and gas activity, while construction recorded its first decline in six months. Education output was notably affected by a province-wide teachers’ strike in Alberta, adding to the overall drag on growth.
Key Market Events to Watch Today:
Wednesday’s agenda blends earnings from defensive, diversified, and cyclical names with an important labor-market checkpoint. Together, these releases will help investors assess whether corporate profitability and employment conditions remain supportive of current equity valuations, or if caution is warranted as markets head deeper into the quarter.
U.S. Unemployment Claims in Focus
Attention now turns to the U.S. labor market. At 8:30 a.m. ET, the weekly initial unemployment claims report is due. Consensus expectations point to 225,000 new claims, slightly above last week’s 224,000 reading.
While the anticipated increase is marginal, the data will be closely watched for signs of any emerging softness in hiring conditions. Recent claims figures have remained historically low, consistent with a resilient labor market. A sustained move higher, however, could signal that tighter financial conditions and slower global growth are beginning to filter through to employment, influencing expectations for monetary policy in the months ahead.
Earnings Calendar – Wednesday Highlights
JBS N.V. (JBS)
- Market Capitalization: ~$32.1 billion
- Reporting Period: September 2025
- EPS Expectation: $0.54
Key Focus Areas:
- Performance of global protein operations amid fluctuating commodity costs
- Margin trends across beef, poultry, and pork segments
- Outlook on pricing power and export demand, particularly from emerging markets
Why It Matters:
- As one of the world’s largest food producers, JBS results can offer insight into global consumer demand and food inflation trends.
Compass Diversified (CODI)
- Market Capitalization: ~$385 million
- Reporting Period: September 2025
- EPS Expectation: $0.56
Key Focus Areas:
- Cash flow stability across its diversified portfolio of middle-market businesses
- Dividend sustainability and balance-sheet strength
- Management commentary on acquisition opportunities and capital allocation
Why It Matters:
- CODI is often viewed as a proxy for private-market health and income-oriented investment demand.
Steelcase Inc. (SCS)
- Event: Q3 FY2026 earnings announcement (After Market Close)
- EPS Expectation: $0.28
Key Focus Areas:
- Corporate office demand trends and order backlog
- Impact of hybrid-work patterns on furniture sales
- Cost controls and margin recovery initiatives
Why It Matters:
- Steelcase results can signal broader trends in commercial real estate and business investment.
Gold Pushes Above $4,500
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this month, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above $4,500K yesterday.
USD/JPY Returns Lower After the BOJ
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips as the pair found support at the 20 daily SMA (gray) and has rebounded more than 200 pips off that MA but reversed after the 25 bps rate cut from the FED.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Still Testing the 100 Weekly SMA
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down below $105,000 before finding support at the 200 daily SMA (purple) and recovering above $115,000 but then fell toward $100K again. However BTC remains supported by the 100 weekly SMA (green) and only a break below that would risk further losses.
BTC/USD – Weekly Chart
Ethereum Faces the 50 Daily SMA
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2.700 but the 200 weekly SMA held as support and we’re seeing a rebound but buyers face the 50 SMA (yellow) now.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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