XRP at $1.80 Support: Extreme Social ‘Fear’ and Dwindling Exchange Supply Signal Potential Rebound
XRP is trading at $1.80, which is about the same as it was 24 hours ago. However, the digital asset has lost about 49% of its value since
Quick overview
- XRP is currently trading at $1.80, maintaining its price from the previous day but down 49% from its seven-year high of $3.66.
- Market sentiment has reached extreme fear levels, which historically precedes significant price recoveries for XRP.
- On-chain data indicates a drop in XRP exchange reserves to their lowest since July 2024, suggesting investors are holding onto their assets rather than selling.
- XRP faces significant resistance levels that must be overcome for a recovery, with critical support at $1.61 to prevent further declines.
XRP XRP/USD is trading at $1.80, which is about the same as it was 24 hours ago. However, the digital asset has lost about 49% of its value since its seven-year high of $3.66. Even though the price action is still weak, a combination of emotion indicators and on-chain data is showing a more complicated picture than the negative chart structure would suggest. This raises the question of whether a contrarian rebound could be building.
Sentiment Reaches Extreme Fear Levels That Previously Sparked Rallies
According to the market intelligence platform Santiment, social sentiment about XRP has dropped into what they call the “fear zone.” This is a circumstance that has traditionally come before big price recovery. Santiment’s research shows that XRP is getting a lot more unfavorable comments on social media than usual. The company thinks this makes it more likely that the price will go up sharply.
This idea goes against the grain, yet historical data backs it up. Fear levels dropped to identical lows on November 21 and December 5, after which XRP rose by 22% and 11%, respectively, during the next several days. “When retail has doubts about a coin’s ability to rise, the rise becomes significantly more likely,” Santiment said, pointing out the opposite relationship between crowd psychology and market bottoms.
DefiPeniel, a crypto expert, agreed with this sentiment analysis, saying that “XRP sentiment is ugly again,” but the underlying capital flows tell a different tale. Find XRP ETFs have had a flawless streak of inflows since they started, with total inflows of $1.13 billion and assets under management of more than $1.2 billion. Despite what DefiPeniel called “boring” price activity, this institutional confidence stays strong. He also said, “Markets don’t bottom when vibes improve—they bottom when price holds and sentiment breaks.”
XRP Exchange Reserves Drop to Lowest Level Since July 2024
CryptoQuant’s on-chain data shows a big change in supply that could support a bullish thesis. The amount of XRP held on Binance has dropped drastically to about 2.66 billion tokens. This is the lowest level of exchange reserves since July 2024. This drop in easily available supply shows that investors are placing their assets into self-custody instead of being ready to sell them right away.
The importance of falling exchange reserves is that it makes it harder to sell. When there are fewer tokens available for trade on exchanges, even small buying demand might have a big effect on prices. This dynamic has led to supply-driven rallies in the past, especially when it was combined with oversold technical conditions and very negative sentiment.
XRP/USD Resistance Levels Present Steep Recovery Challenges
XRP has a lot of technical problems to deal with in any attempt to recover, even while the mood and supply numbers are good. To start moving up, the token needs to first break through the barrier at the multi-month falling trendline around $1.92. There is also a lot of resistance between $1.96 and $2.00, where investors hold $1.5 billion worth of XRP, according to Glassnode statistics.
The area between $2.10 and $2.50 is an even tougher barrier, with the 50-day simple moving average at $2.10, the 50-week exponential moving average at $2.25, and the 50-week simple moving average at $2.50. C3_trading, a technical analyst, said that XRP is still “in a strong downtrend” because it has been rejected multiple times at the $2.50–$2.70 level. He said that the technical bias will stay bearish until a clear breakout above $2.50 confirms a change in trend.
On the other hand, bears are trying to knock the stock below the important $1.80 support level. If the price breaks down, it will probably test $1.75 and then the April low of $1.61. If XRP loses the $1.61 support zone, the chances of it going down to $1.25 would go up a lot. The psychological level of $1.00 might be a target for 2026.
XRP Price Prediction: Bulls Must Defend $1.61 to Prevent Deeper Decline
The short-term forecast depends on XRP’s ability to stay above the lower boundary of its descending channel pattern, which is close to $1.61. At this level, bulls are likely to put up a strong defense. If they don’t, the price could drop to $1.25. XRP could stay in its present range for a long time if the price can settle, break above the moving averages, and hold channel support.
If the price stays above the downtrend line for a long time, bulls will be in charge again, and the price might rise above $3.10. The weekly chart structure is still negative because recent price action has been dominated by lower highs and lower lows. However, dropping volume in recent weeks shows that selling pressure may be slowing down rather than speeding up.
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