Investec Share Price Rebounds Strongly, Setting the Stage for New Highs in 2026
Investec has entered 2026 with renewed momentum, as strong long-term returns, technical support, and steady earnings guidance combine to...
Quick overview
- Investec has shown strong long-term performance, with over 100% gains in its Johannesburg-listed shares since 2020.
- The stock has rebounded from a recent pullback, supported by strong demand at key technical levels.
- Despite a challenging macro environment, Investec's earnings guidance remains stable, with expectations for adjusted EPS to be slightly lower to modestly higher year-on-year.
- The company is well-positioned for potential new record highs in 2026, supported by operational consistency and capital discipline.
Investec has entered 2026 with renewed momentum, as strong long-term returns, technical support, and steady earnings guidance combine to revive upside expectations.
A Strong Long-Term Performer
Since 2020, Investec has delivered substantial value to shareholders across both its South African and UK listings. The Johannesburg-listed shares ended last week at R124.50, representing gains of more than 100% over the past five years. This performance reflects a disciplined strategy, diversified earnings base, and consistent capital returns.
INLJ Chart Weekly – Rebounding Off the 20 SMA
While momentum softened toward the end of 2025, the broader trend remains intact. The recent pullback appears increasingly like consolidation rather than a structural shift in sentiment.
Technical Support Sparks a Rebound
On the weekly chart, Investec shares retreated toward R115 late last year as buyers hesitated near the 2024 resistance zone. That pause proved temporary. Strong demand emerged at the 200-week simple moving average, triggering a decisive rebound.
INLJ Chart Monthly – The 50 SMA Held As Support
In just two weeks, the stock climbed roughly R10, gaining close to 9%. This recovery has re-established the longer-term uptrend and suggests investors remain comfortable accumulating shares at key support levels.
Monthly Chart Signals a Turning Point
A longer-term perspective reinforces the improving outlook. In May, Investec tested resistance near its 20-month moving average but failed to sustain a breakout. That rejection led to a gradual retreat into year-end.
However, December delivered an encouraging technical signal. The stock formed a doji candle at the 50-month moving average—often viewed as a reversal indicator following a corrective phase. The strong start to 2026 appears to confirm that signal, with price action pointing toward a broader trend resumption and the potential for new record highs later in the year.
Trading Update Confirms Stability
Investec’s pre-close trading update for the first half of its 2026 financial year highlighted resilience amid a challenging macro backdrop. Management reaffirmed that the Group remains on track to meet full-year guidance, despite market volatility and softer economic conditions in parts of its footprint.
The Group continues to prioritize scaling core operations, strengthening client franchises, and refining its capital allocation strategy.
Earnings Guidance Remains Supportive
For the six months ending September 30, 2025, Investec expects:
- Adjusted EPS: 38.7p–41.5p, ranging from slightly lower to modestly higher year-on-year
- Headline EPS: 35.2p–38.0p, broadly flat versus the prior period
- Basic EPS: 36.0p–38.8p, largely in line with last year
Southern African operations are expected to deliver adjusted operating profit of approximately R5.89 billion, around 5% lower year-on-year. Importantly, credit quality remains strong, with the credit loss ratio forecast between 15 and 35 basis points—well within historical norms. Regional return on equity is projected near 18.5%, comfortably inside Investec’s 16%–20% target range.
Capital Discipline and Strategic Expansion
Investec’s commitment to shareholder returns remains evident. The Group has already completed R1.1 billion of its R2.5 billion share buyback program announced in May 2025, supporting earnings per share and signaling balance sheet confidence.
Separately, Investec Asset Management has appointed Katherine Tweedie as country head for Canada, underscoring its ambition to deepen relationships with institutional investors and expand its global footprint.
Outlook: Positioned for Renewed Upside
Despite consolidating below its 2024 peak, Investec continues to demonstrate operational consistency, capital discipline, and improving technical momentum. With earnings tracking within guidance and buyers firmly defending long-term support, the shares appear well-positioned for another advance.
If macro conditions stabilize and investor confidence continues to rebuild, Investec could be setting the stage for fresh all-time highs during 2026.
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