2026 BTC Price Prediction: Bitcoin Scarcity, Hashrate, ETF Surge Suggest $150
As 2026 begins, Bitcoin is resuming its upward pace thanks to strong demand, strong ETF inflows, and a market structure that increasingly...
Quick overview
- As 2026 begins, Bitcoin is experiencing renewed momentum, surpassing $90,000 and showing resilience against market volatility.
- Institutional confidence is highlighted by significant ETF inflows, with over $471 million recorded on January 2, indicating strong long-term demand.
- Bitcoin's hashrate has reached an all-time high, reflecting increased mining competition and reinforcing its scarcity as a valuable asset.
- Long-term holders are resuming accumulation, suggesting a growing belief in Bitcoin's long-term value amidst improving macro conditions.
Live BTC/USD Chart
As 2026 begins, Bitcoin is resuming its upward pace thanks to strong demand, strong ETF inflows, and a market structure that increasingly benefits long-term holders.
Bitcoin Holds Its Ground as Safe-Haven Demand Evolves
Late 2025 saw investors gravitate toward traditional safe havens such as gold and silver amid heightened uncertainty. Yet despite this rotation, Bitcoin continued to attract steady demand above the $80,000 level. Rather than weakening, the digital asset demonstrated resilience, absorbing volatility without surrendering key support zones.
BTC/USD Chart Weekly – Rebounding Off the 100 SMA
The start of 2026 has reinforced this narrative. Bitcoin surged above $90,000 in the first trading days of the year, signalling renewed confidence and strengthening the case for a medium-term push toward the psychologically important $100,000 threshold. The ability to sustain elevated prices during periods of shifting risk appetite highlights Bitcoin’s growing role as a long-term store of value rather than a speculative outlier.
ETF Inflows Deliver a Strong Opening Signal for 2026
One of the clearest confirmations of institutional confidence came from spot Bitcoin ETF flows. On January 2 alone, U.S.-listed spot ETFs recorded net inflows of $471.3 million, marking a robust start to the new year.
BlackRock’s IBIT led the charge, attracting $287.4 million in a single session. These flows matter because ETF demand reflects deliberate allocation decisions by institutions and long-term investors, not short-term trading activity. The early strength in ETF inflows points to a constructive year ahead, with expectations building around fresh record highs and longer-term upside potential extending toward $150,000 in 2026.
With total assets under management across spot Bitcoin ETFs now exceeding $113 billion, institutional ownership has become a defining feature of this cycle.
Hashrate Reaches New Extremes, Reinforcing Scarcity
While price action has captured headlines, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals continue to strengthen quietly in the background. Mining conditions have become the most challenging on record, with hashrate climbing relentlessly throughout 2025.
In October, Bitcoin’s hashrate reached an all-time high of approximately 1.15 zettahashes per second on a seven-day moving average, surpassing the symbolic 1 ZH/s milestone. This surge reflects intense competition among miners and growing confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.
Paradoxically, tougher mining economics may support higher prices. As difficulty increases and production costs rise, mining becomes less attractive relative to simply acquiring and holding existing Bitcoin. This dynamic diverts capital from production toward accumulation, reinforcing scarcity-driven price appreciation over time.
Volatility Is Absorbed, Not Amplified
Bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase following weeks of elevated volatility across global markets. While short-term price swings remain pronounced, the broader behaviour suggests stability rather than fragility.
Repeated tests of the $80,000–$85,000 region have consistently drawn buyers, establishing this zone as a well-defined demand area. Unlike earlier market cycles marked by abrupt collapses, recent pullbacks have been met with steady accumulation.
This evolution reflects a maturing market structure, where downside moves are increasingly dampened by long-term participants stepping in during periods of uncertainty.
Long-Term Holders Quietly Resume Accumulation
On-chain metrics provide further evidence of strengthening conviction. The “Hodler Net Position Change,” which tracks wallets holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, turned positive on December 26 for the first time since late September.
Long-term holders added roughly 3,784 BTC, ending a three-month phase of net distribution. These investors typically operate on multi-year horizons and are less sensitive to short-term volatility. Their return to accumulation suggests renewed confidence that current price levels offer attractive long-term value.
This behaviour aligns with the continued stability of ETF holdings, reinforcing the notion that Bitcoin is increasingly held by investors with patience and conviction.
Influential Forecasts Reinforce the Bullish Narrative
Optimism around Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory has also been reinforced by high-profile market participants. Arthur Hayes, founder of BitMEX, has reiterated his view that Bitcoin could eventually approach $200,000 before settling into a structurally higher range above $120,000.
His argument centres on global liquidity conditions and what he describes as indirect balance-sheet expansion by central banks. While such projections remain debated, they underscore a widely shared belief: persistent liquidity creation and currency debasement continue to favour scarce, non-sovereign assets.
Even conservative outlooks increasingly frame Bitcoin as a strategic hedge rather than a speculative bet.
Institutional Capital Anchors Market Stability
Institutional involvement remains one of the most stabilising forces in the current cycle. Strategy’s executive chairman, Michael Saylor, recently reignited speculation around further Bitcoin accumulation through messaging widely interpreted as a signal of continued conviction.
Strategy now holds more than 671,000 BTC, valued at approximately $59 billion, making it one of the largest corporate holders globally. Such deeply capitalised participants are structurally less likely to become forced sellers during market stress, reducing the risk of disorderly drawdowns.
This institutional backbone distinguishes the current cycle from earlier periods dominated by leverage-heavy retail participation.
November’s Shakeout Resets the Market
November marked a critical inflection point. A sharp liquidation event erased nearly $1 trillion from the broader crypto market, briefly pushing Bitcoin below $81,000 and triggering widespread risk aversion.
Yet the selloff proved short-lived. Buyers stepped in decisively near the $80,000 level, driving prices back toward $90,000 and restoring stability. Since then, repeated retests of this area have been met with demand, suggesting that large investors view these levels as attractive accumulation zones.
By flushing out excess leverage, the November correction may have laid the groundwork for a more sustainable advance.
Technical Structure Remains Constructive
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s longer-term structure remains intact. On the weekly chart, price briefly dipped below the 50-week simple moving average but failed to generate sustained downside momentum.
Instead, the 100-week SMA absorbed selling pressure, acting as a stabilising anchor—consistent with its role during previous bull-market consolidations. On the monthly timeframe, Bitcoin continues to trade above the 20-month SMA, a level historically associated with accumulation rather than distribution.
BTC/USD Chart Monthly – The 20 SMA Still Holding
The absence of new lower lows reinforces the view that the market is consolidating within a broader uptrend.
Mining Pressure Adds Friction, Not Weakness
Bitcoin’s price currently trades near the estimated average production cost of around $94,000. This has increased pressure on higher-cost mining operations, some of which may need to liquidate portions of their holdings to manage expenses.
However, miner selling appears to exert less influence than in prior cycles. ETF flows, institutional demand, and long-term holder behaviour now play a larger role in shaping price dynamics, limiting the impact of mining-related supply.
Policy Shifts Improve the Macro Environment
Political and regulatory developments in the United States have also improved sentiment. Following President Trump’s return to office, several restrictive measures have been rolled back, enforcement actions eased, and progress made toward integrating digital assets into broader financial policy.
The introduction of a strategic Bitcoin reserve and advancing stablecoin legislation have added clarity, reinforcing the perception that Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly embedded component of the financial system.
Outlook: Consolidation With Clear Upside Potential
Bitcoin’s current phase reflects digestion rather than decline. Long-term holders are accumulating, institutional participation remains strong, and macro conditions are gradually improving as 2026 unfolds.
While short-term volatility is likely to persist—particularly as attention oscillates between traditional and digital safe havens—the structural case for Bitcoin remains firmly intact. As long as the $80,000 support zone continues to hold, the $100,000 milestone appears increasingly achievable, with higher targets coming into focus as the year progresses.
Bitcoin Live Chart
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