Ethereum Eyes $4,061 Breakout as Network Growth Surges 110% Post-Fusaka Upgrade
Ethereum is trading above $3,180, which is a 1.3% increase in the last 24 hours, getting close to a very important technical turning point.
Quick overview
- Ethereum is currently trading above $3,180, marking a 1.3% increase in the last 24 hours and nearing a critical technical turning point.
- Institutional investors are returning to the market, with significant inflows into Ether ETFs, signaling renewed confidence despite overall market caution.
- User adoption of Ethereum has surged by nearly 110% since the Fusaka upgrade, indicating strong network fundamentals and increased engagement.
- Technical analysis suggests a potential breakout for Ethereum, with targets set at $4,061 and $3,447, although risks remain if resistance levels are not maintained.
Ethereum ETH/USD is trading above $3,180, which is a 1.3% increase in the last 24 hours, getting close to a very important technical turning point. The digital asset is trading near the top of a falling wedge pattern that has kept prices from moving since early November. On-chain metrics, on the other hand, show that the network’s fundamentals are getting stronger after the Fusaka upgrade in December.
Institutional Capital Flows Signal Confidence Revival
Ethereum is getting a boost from institutional investors coming back to the cryptocurrency markets. On the first trading day of 2026, US-based spot Ether ETFs had net inflows of $174.5 million, which was their biggest single-day gain in 15 trading sessions. Farside statistics says that the total amount of money that came in was $646 million, which includes $471.3 million from Bitcoin ETFs.
This rise comes after a tough December when crypto markets were more cautious. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently hit “Extreme Fear” again, with a score of 25. This shows that the market as a whole is worried. But executives in the sector say that this negative attitude could be making it easier to buy. According to Tonso’s chief marketing officer, institutional investors who sold their assets in the fourth quarter of 2025 to avoid paying taxes are now “loading up” on stocks.
The timing fits with historical patterns that show January is a time when investors often put money back into the market as they get their portfolios ready for the new year.
Ethereum Network Growth Accelerates Following Protocol Improvements
User adoption numbers are showing more and more that Ethereum is fundamentally strong. Since the Fusaka update went live on December 3, new address creation has gone up by almost 110%. The upgrade’s main goals were to improve scalability and lower Layer 2 transaction costs. The network now adds over 292,000 new addresses per day, which means that more people are getting involved in the ecosystem.
This growth happens even if the overall crypto markets aren’t doing well. In 2025, both Bitcoin and Ethereum lost value, with Bitcoin BTC/USD dropping 6% and Ethereum dropping 11%. In contrast, gold rose by more than 60% during the same time, which led several big investors to switch their money into tokenized precious metals and stablecoins after losing money on directional crypto bets.
ETH/USD Technical Analysis Points to Potential Breakout
From a technical point of view, the way Ethereum’s chart is set up is very interesting. The descending wedge formation, which usually means a bullish continuation, has a theoretical upside objective of $4,061, which is a possible 29.5% gain from where it is now. For this to happen, ETH needs to break above the upper resistance line of the wedge in a clear way.
If momentum keeps going, the next aim is $3,447, which is a more cautious short-term goal. These levels would be a big step in reversing the downturn that has been going on since late 2024. Traders should keep in mind, though, that breakthroughs need to be confirmed by higher volume and price action staying above resistance.
If the breakthrough fails, the downside risk is still there. If Ethereum is rejected at these levels, it might drop back below the psychological $3,000 mark and test support again under $2,902. If this happened, the bullish thesis would no longer be true, and trading would probably stay in a range.
ETH Price Outlook: Holder Behavior Creates Mixed Signals
On-chain HODL wave data shows that mid-term holders who bought between July and October 2025 are becoming more concentrated. A lot of these investors are still underwater, which makes them “forced holding,” which lowers the pressure to sell right away. This dynamic gives prices some immediate support, but it also sets up possible resistance zones as ETH gets closer to break-even levels for various groups.
Ethereum may be getting ready for a big move up in early 2026 because more people are using the network, institutional capital is coming back, and the charts look good. However, macro uncertainty and resistance from underwater holders could slow down any rally.
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