Vodacom’s Safaricom Move Signals a New Phase of Regional Ambition, JSE: VOD Share Price Tests 2025 Highs
Vodacom has entered 2025 with renewed momentum, combining resilient earnings performance with a transformative move to deepen its presence..
Quick overview
- Vodacom has regained market momentum with a recovering share price and a strategic acquisition of Safaricom, enhancing its presence in East Africa.
- The acquisition, valued at approximately $2.4 billion, will give Vodacom a 55% stake in Safaricom, significantly boosting its control over mobile and financial services.
- Vodacom's interim results show an 11% increase in total revenue and a 14.7% rise in EBITDA, reflecting strong performance across various segments despite challenges in prepaid markets.
- The company aims to expand its customer base to over 260 million by 2030, with financial services playing a key role in its growth strategy.
Vodacom has entered 2025 with renewed momentum, combining resilient earnings performance with a transformative move to deepen its presence across Africa.
Vodacom Regains Market Momentum
After a period of consolidation in the second half of 2025, Vodacom’s share price has begun to recover at the start of the new year, reflecting improving investor confidence. The rebound follows a solid set of interim results and a landmark strategic transaction that significantly expands the group’s influence across East Africa. As Africa’s largest mobile operator by footprint, Vodacom is increasingly positioning itself as a diversified digital services platform rather than a traditional telecom.
Transformational Safaricom Acquisition
The most significant development is Vodacom’s agreement to take control of Safaricom, East Africa’s largest telecommunications provider, in a transaction valued at approximately $2.4 billion. Upon completion, Vodacom will own 55% of Safaricom, acquired through the purchase of a 15% stake from the Kenyan government and a further 5% from Vodafone International Holdings.
Under the revised ownership structure, the Kenyan government will retain a 20% stake, while 25% will remain publicly listed on the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The transaction, one of Africa’s largest telecom deals in 2025, is expected to close in the first quarter of 2026, subject to regulatory approval in Kenya, South Africa, and Ethiopia.
Vodacom paid $1.6 billion for the government’s stake, including an upfront payment of $310 million that secures entitlement to future dividends on the remaining government-held shares. Strategically, the deal gives Vodacom direct control over Safaricom’s highly profitable mobile and financial services operations, most notably M-Pesa.
Interim Results Highlight Operational Resilience
Vodacom’s half-year results for the period ended 30 September 2025 demonstrated steady execution across its diversified business model. Despite ongoing pressure in prepaid mobile markets, growth in contract customers, enterprise services, and financial services helped offset weaker areas.
The group reiterated its long-term ambition to expand its customer base to more than 260 million users and to grow financial services customers to 120 million by the 2030 financial year. Management continues to target sustained double-digit EBITDA growth over the medium to long term.
Revenue Growth and Earnings Progress
Total group revenue increased by 11% year-on-year, underlining Vodacom’s ability to generate growth across multiple geographies. Service revenue rose from R58.6 billion in the prior period to R65.8 billion, reflecting strong contributions from data, enterprise solutions, and fintech services.
EBITDA advanced 14.7% to R30.5 billion, supported by operational efficiencies and scale benefits. In a clear signal of confidence, the interim dividend was lifted by 15.8% to 330 cents per share, reinforcing Vodacom’s commitment to shareholder returns.
South African Market: Mixed but Improving Trends
In South Africa, service revenue climbed to R31.7 billion, driven largely by strength in the contract segment and continued diversification beyond traditional mobile services. Contract mobile revenue increased 3.7% to R12.5 billion, aided by pricing adjustments implemented earlier in the year.
Prepaid revenue, however, declined 1.6% to R13.2 billion, reflecting heightened competition and ongoing pressure on consumer affordability. While this remains a structural challenge, Vodacom’s expanding digital and financial offerings are helping to cushion the impact.
Financial Services Drive Strategic Differentiation
Financial services remain a cornerstone of Vodacom’s growth strategy. The group’s fintech customer base expanded to 93.7 million, underscoring the importance of mobile money, payments, and digital platforms across its African markets. This segment provides Vodacom with recurring revenue streams and deeper customer engagement, reducing reliance on traditional voice and data pricing.
Legal Resolution Clears a Long-Standing Overhang
Headline earnings rose 32% year-on-year, albeit landing at the lower end of revised guidance due to a once-off settlement related to the long-running “Please Call Me” legal dispute. The agreement with former employee Kenneth Makate concludes an 18-year legal process and removes a material uncertainty that had weighed on sentiment.
Share Price Performance and Outlook
Vodacom shares have staged a notable recovery since bottoming near R86 in April 2024, rallying to around R147 by mid-2025. Although the stock consolidated in recent months, the latest 4% surge has brought prices back toward 2025 highs. A decisive break above these levels would likely open the door toward a retest of the 2022 highs near R163.
VODJ Chart Weekly – Rebounding Off the 50 SMA
Conclusion: Vodacom’s interim results and the Safaricom acquisition mark a pivotal moment for the group. While competitive and consumer pressures persist, the company’s scale, financial services leadership, and disciplined execution are reshaping its growth profile. With regulatory approvals still pending, near-term uncertainty remains, but strategically, Vodacom is laying the groundwork for a more resilient, pan-African digital powerhouse.
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