Silver Price Forecast: XAG Eyes $82.60 as Dollar Tests 1-Month High
Silver remain under near-term pressure as the US dollar trades close to a one-month high, driven by resilient labor data and positioning...
Quick overview
- Silver is under pressure due to a strong US dollar and recent labor data, trading near $76.80.
- Gold has pulled back to around $4,463, influenced by currency movements rather than market sentiment.
- Initial Jobless Claims rose slightly, reinforcing a tight labor market and supporting the dollar, which limits upside for precious metals.
- Despite geopolitical tensions providing some support, silver's technical structure remains stable, with key levels to watch for potential trading opportunities.
Silver remain under near-term pressure as the US dollar trades close to a one-month high, driven by resilient labor data and positioning ahead of the January Nonfarm Payrolls report. Gold (XAU/USD) slipped toward $4,463, briefly touching $4,452, extending its pullback despite persistent geopolitical risk. The move was largely currency-driven rather than sentiment-led.
According to the US Department of Labor, Initial Jobless Claims rose to 208,000 for the week ended January 3, slightly above the prior 200,000 reading but below consensus expectations of 210,000. The data reinforced the view of a still-tight labor market, supporting the dollar and limiting immediate upside in precious metals.
Silver (XAG/USD) mirrored gold’s hesitation, trading near $76.80, down modestly on the session as traders avoided fresh exposure ahead of key US jobs data.
Gold’s Macro Signal Anchors Silver’s Bias
While the dollar has firmed, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year remain intact. Consensus forecasts suggest the US economy added around 60,000 jobs in December, down from November, with the unemployment rate seen easing toward 4.5%. A softer employment trend would revive rate-cut expectations, a key medium-term tailwind for gold and silver.
[[XAG/USD-graph]]
Geopolitical risk continues to act as a counterbalance. Ongoing tensions involving Russia and Ukraine, US involvement in Venezuela, and renewed trade friction between China and Japan have sustained demand for defensive assets. These factors have not triggered aggressive buying but have helped cap downside in both metals.
Silver Technical Structure Remains Constructive
On the 2-hour chart, Silver remains technically stable despite recent consolidation. Price continues to respect a rising trendline in place since mid-December, trading above the 200-period moving average near $75.50 and the 50-period average around $76.30. Recent candlesticks show small bodies and lower wicks near $75.50–$76.00, indicating buying interest on dips rather than distribution.
Momentum has cooled, with RSI holding in the mid-40s, consistent with consolidation inside a shallow ascending channel. This mirrors gold’s compression pattern, suggesting that silver’s next move will likely depend on the dollar’s reaction to NFP rather than internal weakness.
Key levels to watch
- Support: $75.50, then $73.90
- Resistance: $78.90, then $82.60
As long as gold holds its rising channel and real yields remain contained, silver’s broader trend remains intact, favoring upside resolution once macro uncertainty clears.
Trade Setup
Buy Silver near $75.50, target $82.60, stop below $73.80.
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