TMC Stock Rallies on U.S. Mining Optimism, Despite Deep Sea Regulatory Uncertainty Looms
Revived enthusiasm has brought the Metals Company's focus back to essential minerals, but beneath the rebound remain unresolved political...
Quick overview
- The Metals Company has seen a significant stock rebound, climbing nearly 70% from late-2025 lows, but remains vulnerable to volatility and regulatory uncertainty.
- Renewed interest in critical minerals and U.S. efforts to secure strategic resources have fueled speculative trading around TMC, despite the absence of concrete progress in commercial production.
- Investor focus is now on the NOAA's review process for exploration licenses, which could serve as a catalyst but carries substantial regulatory and political risks.
- The stock's recent performance highlights a reliance on sentiment and narrative shifts rather than fundamental changes, with ongoing uncertainties complicating the investment landscape.
Revived enthusiasm has brought the Metals Company’s focus back to essential minerals, but beneath the rebound remain unresolved political risk, persistent volatility, and regulatory uncertainty.
A Sudden Revival Puts TMC Back on the Radar
The Metals Company has once again captured market attention following a sharp rebound from its late-2025 lows. After plunging below $5 in November, TMC shares staged an aggressive recovery, climbing nearly 70% at their peak and briefly trading above $8. The move pulled the stock back into speculative conversations after months of steady decline.
Momentum traders and short-term investors were quick to reengage, drawn by the familiar combination of geopolitical headlines and policy speculation. Yet the recovery has already shown signs of fragility. After the initial surge, the stock retreated by roughly 10% last week before stabilizing in the low $6 range, underscoring how quickly enthusiasm can fade.
The price action highlights a recurring theme for TMC: sharp rebounds driven by narrative shifts rather than concrete progress, followed by renewed volatility once sentiment cools.
Critical Minerals Narrative Returns to the Forefront
The latest rally has been closely tied to a renewed focus on critical minerals and supply-chain security. Reports suggesting that the United States is intensifying coordination with allies to secure long-term access to strategic resources have reignited interest in non-traditional mining solutions.
Despite recent diplomatic efforts that led to some easing of Chinese export restrictions, U.S. policymakers continue to view dependence on China-dominated mineral processing as a strategic vulnerability. That concern has revived speculative interest in alternative sources of nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper—the very metals central to The Metals Company’s deep-sea mining thesis.
While commercial production remains distant, history has shown that policy-driven narratives alone can move TMC’s share price dramatically. The current rebound fits that familiar pattern.
Washington Optimism Fuels a Fresh Push Higher
Shares jumped around 7% on Monday as investors speculated that U.S. authorities could move closer to approving deep-sea mining activities in American waters. At the center of that optimism is The Metals Company’s effort to pursue exploration licenses under U.S. law rather than waiting for the United Nations–backed International Seabed Authority (ISA) to finalize its long-delayed regulatory framework.
This strategy represents a deliberate attempt to bypass international uncertainty by anchoring operations within a domestic legal structure. Supporters argue that such an approach could accelerate progress and provide clarity, while critics warn it risks triggering legal, environmental, and diplomatic backlash.
Environmental groups have already voiced opposition, arguing that seabed mining poses unacceptable ecological risks and should not advance ahead of comprehensive international rules.
NOAA Review Process Becomes the Market’s Focal Point
Investor attention is now firmly fixed on the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The agency has opened a public-comment period for two exploration license applications submitted by The Metals Company USA, LLC, setting a deadline for written feedback on February 23.
According to the Federal Register, NOAA also plans to hold two virtual public hearings in late January, offering stakeholders an opportunity to voice support or opposition. For markets, the process represents a rare near-term catalyst in an otherwise long-dated story.
However, the path forward is anything but clear. NOAA has never granted a commercial recovery permit for seabed mining, and the regulatory framework remains largely untested. While the opening of a review process has boosted optimism, it does not guarantee approval—or even a clear timeline.
Regulatory and Political Risks Remain Substantial
The risks surrounding the U.S. route are significant. A recent Congressional Research Service report emphasized that NOAA has no track record of approving commercial seabed mining and warned that moving ahead outside the ISA framework could provoke legal challenges and diplomatic friction.
International resistance to deep-sea mining has also been growing. Several countries have called for moratoriums, citing environmental concerns and insufficient scientific understanding of deep-ocean ecosystems. Should the U.S. proceed unilaterally, it could face pushback from allies and environmental organizations alike.
For investors, these uncertainties complicate the investment case. Even a favorable NOAA review would likely mark the beginning of a lengthy process rather than a clear green light.
A Rally Built on Sentiment Rather Than Substance
TMC’s recent rebound illustrates how sentiment continues to dominate trading in early-stage resource companies. In October, optimism around battery metals and strategic supply chains drove the stock above $11, only for that rally to collapse once speculative momentum faded.
The subsequent sell-off erased more than half the company’s market value in a matter of weeks, highlighting how little margin for disappointment exists. The bounce from sub-$5 levels appears to have been driven more by oversold conditions and shifting narratives than by fundamental change.
As long as commercial production remains years away, TMC’s valuation will likely remain tethered to headlines rather than cash flows.
Short Interest Adds Fuel to Price Swings
Another factor amplifying volatility is elevated short interest. Roughly 14% of TMC’s float remains sold short, creating conditions ripe for sharp squeezes when positive headlines emerge.
That dynamic was evident following recent comments from the company’s chief financial officer, who suggested that improving visibility could increase pressure on short sellers. The remarks triggered a quick surge in after-hours trading, reinforcing how sensitive the stock is to changes in narrative.
While short squeezes can drive rapid gains, they also tend to be fleeting, often leaving late buyers exposed once momentum reverses.
Technical Picture Improves, but Risks Persist
From a technical standpoint, the rebound has repaired some of the damage inflicted during the autumn collapse. The reversal began after shares tested the 200-day moving average in mid-November, a level that finally attracted sustained buying interest.
TMC Chart Daily – MAs Have Turned Into Support
The rally carried the stock back above the 50-day moving average, offering short-term encouragement to bullish traders. Even so, longer-term resistance levels remain overhead, and the broader chart still reflects a pattern of lower highs and sharp retracements.
TMC Chart Weekly – Testing the 20 SMA
Without sustained follow-through, the current base remains fragile rather than firmly established.
A High-Stakes Bet Still Defined by Uncertainty
The Metals Company’s resurgence reflects the market’s ongoing fascination with critical minerals and strategic supply chains. Yet the underlying challenges have not disappeared. Regulatory uncertainty, political resistance, environmental opposition, and the absence of revenue all continue to weigh on the long-term outlook.
For now, TMC remains a stock driven by policy headlines and speculative positioning rather than operational milestones. Until clearer regulatory outcomes emerge, volatility is likely to remain a defining feature—offering opportunity for traders, but demanding caution from longer-term investors.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
Save