MTSR Stock Eyes $200+ after Support, as Strategy BTC Holdings Soar to $64B
After nearly half a year of relentless selling, MicroStrategy is showing early signs of stabilisation as Bitcoin’s recovery and renewed...
Quick overview
- MicroStrategy's stock shows early signs of stabilization after a prolonged downtrend, rebounding near the $150 level as Bitcoin recovers.
- The company raised $1.25 billion to acquire additional Bitcoin, increasing its total holdings to approximately 687,410 BTC, solidifying its position as the largest corporate holder.
- Despite recent volatility and warnings from JPMorgan about potential index removals, analyst sentiment remains bullish with a Buy rating and a $705 price target.
- MicroStrategy's long-term commitment to Bitcoin is reaffirmed by management, although they acknowledge the possibility of selling under extreme conditions.
After nearly half a year of relentless selling, MicroStrategy is showing early signs of stabilisation as Bitcoin’s recovery and renewed capital deployment shift sentiment.
MicroStrategy Stabilises After a Prolonged Downtrend
MicroStrategy shares appear to have carved out a tentative base near the $150 level following one of their most punishing drawdowns in years. The stock, which had fallen sharply for almost six consecutive months, is beginning to show signs of recovery as Bitcoin regains momentum and investor sentiment toward crypto-linked equities improves.
So far this week, MSTR has climbed more than 7%, supported by a renewed rally in digital assets and the company’s latest high-profile Bitcoin acquisition. While volatility remains elevated, the recent price action suggests selling pressure may be easing—at least for now.
Fresh Bitcoin Buying Rekindles Investor Interest
The latest catalyst came after MicroStrategy disclosed a $1.25 billion capital raise, which it promptly deployed into additional Bitcoin purchases. The company sold approximately 6.83 million common shares alongside 1.19 million preferred STRC shares, raising net proceeds of around $1.25 billion.
Those funds were used to acquire 13,627 Bitcoin at an average price of $91,519 per coin. As a result, MicroStrategy’s total Bitcoin holdings have climbed to roughly 687,410 BTC—further cementing its status as the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency globally.
For investors, the move reinforced management’s unwavering commitment to its Bitcoin-centric strategy, even after months of sharp share-price declines.
Bitcoin’s Recovery Drives the Equity Rebound
MicroStrategy’s fortunes remain tightly linked to Bitcoin’s price action, effectively turning the stock into a leveraged proxy for the digital asset. As Bitcoin stabilised near the $80,000 level before pushing back above $90,000—and briefly trading north of $93,000—MSTR followed suit.
Early in the week, the stock gained roughly 4% on Monday, followed by additional upside as crypto markets strengthened into Tuesday. The correlation remains strong, underscoring that MicroStrategy’s equity performance is unlikely to decouple from Bitcoin anytime soon.
Technical Picture Shows Early Signs of a Turn
From a technical standpoint, MicroStrategy’s recent behaviour marks a notable change in character. After months of trading below key trend indicators, the stock rebounded cleanly from its 100-week simple moving average (red) and reclaimed levels that had acted as stubborn resistance through October and November.
MSTR Chart Weekly – Rebounding Off the 200 SMA
Most importantly, MSTR has moved back above its 20-day simple moving average, breaking a bearish structure that had defined the stock for much of the past half-year. If momentum can be sustained, a push above $200 would improve the technical outlook further, opening the door toward the $250–$300 zone.
That said, these levels remain highly dependent on continued strength in Bitcoin.
Analyst Optimism Persists Despite Recent Damage
Despite the severity of the selloff, analyst sentiment toward MicroStrategy remains strikingly bullish. Benchmark recently reiterated a Buy rating with a $705 price target, implying substantial upside from current levels.
Many analysts argue that the stock’s roughly 60% correction from summer highs left it deeply oversold relative to both its Bitcoin exposure and its long-term strategic positioning. With crypto markets stabilising and technical indicators turning more constructive, expectations are building that institutional flows could gradually return.
Index Risk and JPMorgan’s Warning Add Friction
MicroStrategy’s downturn was compounded by controversy after JPMorgan suggested the company could face removal from certain MSCI indices. According to the bank’s analysis, such a move could trigger up to $2.8 billion in forced selling, with broader index exclusions potentially pushing outflows toward $9 billion.
The warning sparked backlash from parts of the crypto investment community, with critics accusing JPMorgan of amplifying downside risks at a vulnerable moment. While no index changes have materialised yet, the episode highlighted how structural risks can exacerbate volatility in a stock already prone to sharp swings.
Management Reaffirms Its Long-Term Bitcoin Thesis
Executive Chairman Michael Saylor continues to position MicroStrategy as a long-duration Bitcoin vehicle, repeatedly emphasising that the company’s strategy is built around decades—not quarters—of BTC ownership.
In a subtle but notable refinement, CEO Phong Le recently acknowledged that Bitcoin sales could theoretically occur under extreme conditions. Specifically, he outlined a scenario in which MicroStrategy’s share price trades below the value of its Bitcoin holdings and the company loses access to capital markets. While described as highly unlikely, the admission marked the first time management publicly outlined such parameters.
Nonetheless, Le later reinforced the company’s long-term stance, stating that MicroStrategy has no intention of selling its Bitcoin holdings before at least 2065.
Institutional Participation and Capital Innovation Continue
MicroStrategy has also broadened its capital strategy to support its Bitcoin accumulation. In November, Strategy Inc. issued euro-denominated Series A Perpetual Stream Preferred Shares offering a 10% yield to institutional investors in Europe and the UK.
Institutional interest appears to be growing. CalSTRS, one of the largest U.S. pension funds, recently disclosed a $133 million stake in the company—an endorsement that adds credibility to MicroStrategy’s unconventional balance-sheet strategy.
Conclusion: Stability Emerges, but Volatility Remains
MicroStrategy’s rebound marks a meaningful shift after months of relentless downside, but it does not eliminate the stock’s inherent volatility. With nearly 700,000 Bitcoin on its balance sheet, MSTR remains highly sensitive to crypto market swings, regulatory narratives, and capital-market conditions.
For now, Bitcoin’s recovery has given the stock room to breathe—and possibly build a base. Whether this stabilisation evolves into a sustained uptrend will depend largely on whether crypto momentum can endure and whether investors regain confidence in MicroStrategy’s high-conviction, high-risk approach.
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