WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: $59 Support Tested as Tariff Tensions and Iran Risks Shift
WTI crude oil futures dropped to $59.10 a barrel on Monday, bringing an end to a four-week winning streak. The price reversal...
Quick overview
- WTI crude oil futures fell to $59.10 a barrel, ending a four-week winning streak due to easing tensions in Iran.
- President Trump's warning about potential 'strong measures' if Iran resumes executions keeps oil traders on edge.
- Trade tensions, particularly a new 10% tariff on goods from several European countries, are clouding the demand outlook for oil.
- Current technical analysis shows WTI crude is testing support at $59.25, with mixed momentum and potential scenarios for traders.
WTI crude oil futures dropped to $59.10 a barrel on Monday, bringing an end to a four-week winning streak. The price reversal came as tensions in Iran cooled off, taking the heat out of fears of supply disruptions. President Trump seemed to be putting the brakes on military action, after Iran said it wouldnt execute protesters, calming market nerves.
But Trump threw a caveat out there, saying that if executions start up again “strong measures” might follow, so oil traders are still on edge. They’re keeping a close eye on Iran to see if they’ll change their tune again and if that triggers another bout of volatility.
Trade Tensions Are Clouding the Demand Outlook
Even before any further Iran drama, trade tensions were already weighing on sentiment. Last weekend Trump announced he was slapping a 10% tariff on goods from 8 European countries, including big EU economies like France, Germany and the UK. Rates could shoot up to 25% by June unless a deal is reached over the proposed “we want to buy Greenland” thing that sent markets into a spin.
The countries on the list are worried they might get caught up in a bigger trade war, and that’s bad news for oil. If global trade slows down, it’ll cut into energy demand, especially in industrial sectors.
WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis: $59.25 is the Line in the Sand
On the 4 hour chart, WTI crude is hovering just above $59.25, testing support after a steady run up. Price action is still above the rising trend line but the momentum is pretty much gone.
- Support levels : $59.25, $57.26, $55.97, $54.99
- Resistance levels : $60.05, $61.08, $62.33
- RSI : 47 ish – not a great deal of momentum either way
- Moving Averages : mixed – this is what happens when you’re in a bit of a limbo
The RSI is just under 47, which is basically a tie. A break below $59.25 and the price might start to slip down to $57.26 – or you could get a bounce and see it test the resistances at $60.05 and $61.08. The chart is saying the bulls have lost their steam and we’re waiting for a new angle to come in.
Supply Constraints Still Offer a Bit of a Safety Net
Even with trade worries and everything else going wrong in the world, there are still some supply issues around the world that are helping to prop up prices. Kazakhstan is having export problems in the Black Sea, which is making it harder to get oil out and that’s helping prices a bit. But the big picture is still a lot more supply than demand, which is keeping the pressure on prices.
Trade Setup and Outlook
Right now WTI crude is stuck. You’ve got these two scenarios to consider:
- Buy above $60.05 and see if you can push up to $61.08 but you’ll be stop-lossing if it goes below $59.25
- Sell below $59.25 and aim for $57.26 but you’ll be getting stopped out if it bounces back above $60.05
The next move in oil is going to be all about market news – so traders would do well to keep their wits about them and watch carefully to see what shakes out next.
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