Forex Signals Jan 20: Netflix, ICICI Bank, United Airlines UAA in Focus as Key Earnings Land

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On Tuesday, markets will focus on Netflix, ICICI Bank, and United Airlines. The results are anticipated to provide new information on consumer demand, Indian banking conditions, and international travel prospects through 2026.

Holiday-Thinned Trading Sets a Cautious Tone

With U.S. markets closed for a holiday, trading activity and news flow were subdued at the start of the week. Despite the quieter conditions, attention remained firmly on geopolitical risk, particularly President Trump’s threat to impose tariffs on several EU countries if the U.S. is not granted access to Greenland. The escalation initially unsettled markets, pushing U.S. equity futures down as much as 1.2% early in the session, before a modest recovery trimmed losses.

Dollar Softness Reflects Rising Structural Concerns

The U.S. dollar failed to stage a meaningful rebound, as investors grew increasingly uneasy about Europe’s large holdings of dollar assets and the risk of a deeper political and economic rift. Outcomes once considered unthinkable are now being actively discussed, adding to uncertainty around global capital flows. Markets are watching closely for signals from U.S. lawmakers in the hours ahead, which could shape near-term sentiment.

Canadian Inflation Fails to Lift the Loonie

The main data release of the day came from Canada, where headline CPI surprised to the upside while core measures showed cooler inflation pressures. Within the details, rising airfares and restaurant prices pointed to improving consumer activity. Despite this, the Canadian dollar underperformed its commodity-linked peers, weighed down by ongoing U.S.–Canada trade tensions. USD/CAD did dip following the release, touching a six-day low—a move I discussed with Reuters.

Precious Metals Shine as Risk Aversion Builds

Geopolitical uncertainty continued to support safe-haven assets. Gold pushed to a fresh record high, while silver climbed toward the $95 per ounce level. Bitcoin, however, failed to participate in the risk-off rally, as broader caution limited appetite for digital assets.

Japan in Focus as Snap Elections Called

In Asia, attention turned to Japan after a snap election was called, sparking early discussions around increased fiscal spending. Japanese government bond yields continued to move higher, yet the yen was unable to capitalise on U.S. dollar weakness, underperforming even as risk aversion swept through global markets.

Key Market Events to Watch Today:  Earnings Calendar – Tuesday

Netflix (NFLX) – Q4 2025 Earnings Preview

For Q4 of 2025 growth is expected to remain broad-based, not reliant on a single revenue stream. Profitability metrics suggest Netflix is entering a more mature, cash-generative phase, while forward guidance and advertising outlook may have greater influence on the share price than headline EPS

Core Financial Expectations

Total Revenue:

• Forecast at $11.97bn, representing +16.8% YoY growth
• Advertising Segment:
• Ad-related revenue expected at $1.08bn, reflecting continued traction in the ad-supported tier

Net Income:

• Seen rising to $2.39bn, a 27.7% increase YoY
• Earnings Per Share (EPS):
• Consensus estimate at $0.55, up 29.4% from last year

What the Market Will Be Watching Closely

Revenue Momentum:

• Analysts expect double-digit YoY growth to remain intact, confirming demand resilience

Operating Margin Trends:

• Further margin expansion would reinforce Netflix’s transition toward structurally higher profitability

Free Cash Flow Generation:

• Strong FCF would support shareholder returns and content investment flexibility

ARPU (Average Revenue Per User):

• Increases would signal effective pricing power and successful tier optimisation

Advertising Business Updates:

• Commentary on ad-tier adoption rates, pricing power, and monetisation progress will be key

ICICI Bank Limited (IBN)

• Reporting: Q3 FY2026 earnings
• Timing: Trading Session (TNS)
• Consensus EPS: $0.38

Key focus areas:

• Loan growth and credit demand in India
• Net interest margin stability
• Asset quality and non-performing loan trends
• Management outlook on domestic economic conditions

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL)

• Reporting: Q4 2025 earnings
• Timing: After Market Close (AMC)
• Consensus EPS: $2.94

Key focus areas:

• Passenger demand and yield trends
• Cost pressures, including fuel and labor
• International vs. domestic travel performance
• 2026 guidance and capacity expansion plans

Gold Prints New Highs on the March Toward $5,000

Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. In December, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above $4,600K.

USD/JPY Nears 160

USD/JPY – Daily Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Approaches  $100K

Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $80K before finding support at the 100 weekly SMA (green). A rebound has followed this week, sending BTC near $100 which will be the first major text for Bitcoin buyers.

BTC/USD – Weekly Chart

Ethereum Pushing Above the 100 Weekly SMA

Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2.700 but the 200 weekly SMA held as support and we’re seeing a rebound but buyers face the 100 SMA (green) now.

ETH/USD – Weekly Chart

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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