TMC Stock Heads to ATH After Breaking $8 Resistance as NOAA Rules on Deep-Seabed Mining
The Metals Company has surged back into market focus on renewed critical-minerals optimism, but political, regulatory, and environmental...
Quick overview
- The Metals Company (TMC) has experienced a significant stock recovery, rising nearly 70% after hitting lows below $5 in November 2025.
- Regulatory changes from the NOAA have sparked optimism, allowing TMC to submit a consolidated application for seabed mining permits, although the process remains largely untested.
- Despite the positive sentiment, substantial political, regulatory, and environmental risks persist, complicating the long-term investment outlook for TMC.
- The stock's recent volatility is driven more by market sentiment and speculative trading than by fundamental operational progress.
The Metals Company has surged back into market focus on renewed critical-minerals optimism, but political, regulatory, and environmental uncertainty continues to cloud its long-term outlook.
A Sharp Rebound Pulls TMC Back Into the Spotlight
After months of persistent weakness, The Metals Company (Nasdaq: TMC) has staged a notable comeback. Shares collapsed below the $5 level in November, marking a low point in what had been a bruising second half of 2025. Since then, the stock has mounted an aggressive recovery, rallying nearly 70% at its peak.
TMC recently closed the U.S. session above $8 and continued to climb toward $9, posting a single-day gain of more than 22%. The surge has revived speculative interest and returned the company to trading desks that had largely written it off only weeks earlier.
However, the recovery has not been smooth. After the initial rally, shares pulled back roughly 10% last week before stabilising, underscoring how quickly sentiment-driven moves can lose momentum. This pattern—sharp advances followed by abrupt retracements—has become familiar territory for TMC investors.
NOAA Rule Changes Spark Renewed Optimism
A key catalyst behind the renewed enthusiasm has been regulatory news out of Washington. The Metals Company welcomed the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s final rule, effective January 21, 2026, which modernises the permitting process under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act.
The revised framework allows applicants to submit a consolidated application covering both exploration licences and commercial recovery permits. Importantly, it enables companies to incorporate environmental, geological, and engineering data gathered during the exploration phase directly into commercial applications, reducing duplication and potentially shortening review timelines.
TMC USA has indicated that it plans to submit a consolidated application under the new rules, expressing confidence that the streamlined process could accelerate progress toward a commercial recovery permit. For investors, the announcement represented one of the few tangible regulatory developments in an otherwise uncertain story.
Regulatory Momentum—or Just a First Step?
Despite the optimism, the NOAA process remains largely untested. The agency has never approved a commercial seabed mining permit, making the current review more symbolic than definitive.
NOAA has now opened a public comment period for two exploration licence applications submitted by The Metals Company USA, with written feedback due by February 23. In addition, the agency plans to host two virtual public hearings later this month, allowing stakeholders to voice support or opposition.
While the opening of a formal review has been enough to fuel speculative buying, it offers no guarantee of approval or clarity on timelines. Even in a best-case scenario, investors should expect a lengthy and complex process rather than a swift regulatory green light.
Critical Minerals Narrative Re-Emerges
The rally has also been driven by a broader resurgence in the critical minerals narrative. Growing concern in Washington about long-term supply security has refocused attention on alternative sources of nickel, cobalt, manganese, and copper—materials essential for batteries, electric vehicles, and renewable energy infrastructure.
Although recent diplomatic engagement has led to some easing of Chinese export restrictions, U.S. policymakers continue to view dependence on China-dominated processing chains as a strategic vulnerability. This concern has revived interest in unconventional mining solutions, including deep-sea nodules.
For TMC, whose business model is built around harvesting polymetallic nodules from the ocean floor, this shift in tone has provided a familiar tailwind. Historically, even modest policy signals have been enough to generate outsized moves in the stock.
Washington Bets Drive Another Speculative Push
Shares gained around 7% earlier in the week as investors speculated that U.S. authorities could take concrete steps toward enabling deep-sea mining under domestic law. Central to this optimism is TMC’s strategy of pursuing U.S. permits rather than waiting for the United Nations–backed International Seabed Authority (ISA) to finalise its long-delayed mining code.
Supporters argue that anchoring operations within a U.S. legal framework could provide clarity and speed, especially as ISA negotiations continue to stall. Critics, however, warn that bypassing international consensus risks legal challenges, environmental opposition, and diplomatic fallout.
Environmental organisations have already condemned the approach, arguing that deep-sea ecosystems remain poorly understood and should not be disturbed without comprehensive global rules.
Political and Legal Risks Still Cast a Long Shadow
The risks tied to the U.S. permitting route are substantial. A recent Congressional Research Service report highlighted that NOAA has no precedent for approving commercial seabed mining and cautioned that unilateral action could provoke both domestic legal challenges and international disputes.
Opposition to deep-sea mining has been gaining traction globally, with several countries calling for moratoriums until more scientific research is conducted. If the U.S. moves ahead independently, it could face resistance not only from environmental groups but also from allies concerned about setting a precedent.
For investors, these uncertainties significantly complicate the long-term investment case. Even a favourable NOAA review would likely represent the start of a prolonged regulatory journey rather than a decisive breakthrough.
A Rally Powered More by Sentiment Than Fundamentals
TMC’s latest rebound once again highlights how sentiment, rather than operational progress, dominates price action. In October, enthusiasm around battery metals briefly pushed shares above $11, only for the rally to unravel rapidly when momentum faded.
That sell-off wiped out more than half of the company’s market capitalisation in a matter of weeks. The bounce from sub-$5 levels appears driven largely by oversold conditions, policy headlines, and speculative positioning rather than any fundamental shift in the company’s prospects.
With commercial production still years away, valuation remains detached from cash flows and anchored instead to expectations and narratives.
Short Interest Amplifies Volatility
Elevated short interest has added another layer of instability. Approximately 14% of TMC’s free float remains sold short, creating the potential for sharp squeezes when positive news hits the tape.
This dynamic was evident following recent comments from the company’s chief financial officer, who suggested that improving regulatory visibility could pressure bearish positions. The remarks triggered a quick after-hours spike, reinforcing how sensitive the stock remains to even incremental changes in outlook.
While short-covering rallies can be powerful, they are often short-lived, leaving the stock vulnerable once speculative demand subsides.
Technical Damage Repaired—But Not Fully Healed
Technically, the rebound has repaired some of the damage inflicted during the autumn sell-off. The reversal began after shares tested the 200-day moving average in mid-November, a level that finally attracted sustained buying interest.
TMC Chart Weekly – Resuming the Larger Uptrend
The rally has since carried TMC back above its 50-day moving average, improving short-term sentiment. However, longer-term charts still show a pattern of lower highs and abrupt pullbacks, suggesting that the broader downtrend has not been decisively broken.
Without consistent follow-through, the current base remains fragile rather than firmly established.
Conclusion: Opportunity Wrapped in Uncertainty
The Metals Company’s resurgence reflects renewed enthusiasm for critical minerals and supply-chain security, but the underlying challenges remain unresolved. Regulatory ambiguity, political resistance, environmental opposition, and the absence of revenue continue to define the investment landscape.
For now, TMC remains a stock driven by headlines rather than hard milestones. That dynamic may continue to offer trading opportunities, but for longer-term investors, patience—and caution—remain essential until regulatory outcomes become clearer.
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