Gold Price Forecast: $5,070 Holds as Tariff Risks Fuel Safe-Haven Rush; What’s Next?
Gold extended its powerful uptrend this week, pushing above $5,050 and printing an intraday high near $5,079 as investors...
Quick overview
- Gold prices surged above $5,050, reaching an intraday high near $5,079 as investors sought safe-haven assets amid rising global risk sentiment.
- Market anxiety increased following President Trump's warning of potential 100% tariffs on Canadian goods, reigniting fears of a broader trade conflict.
- Silver also rose to $107.60, indicating strong demand across precious metals beyond just gold.
- Technical indicators suggest gold is consolidating near $5,070, with potential targets of $5,175 and $5,230 if buyers reclaim $5,115.
Gold extended its powerful uptrend this week, pushing above $5,050 and printing an intraday high near $5,079 as investors rotated back into safe-haven assets. The move reflects a sharp deterioration in global risk sentiment, driven by escalating trade tensions and growing uncertainty around US monetary leadership.
Market anxiety surged after President Donald Trump warned of 100% tariffs on Canadian goods should Ottawa advance trade negotiations with China. The threat reignited fears of a broader trade conflict, prompting investors to seek defensive assets. At the same time, strained diplomatic relations between the US, Europe, and Canada have reinforced gold’s role as a hedge against geopolitical instability.
Silver followed suit, climbing to $107.60, up 3.6%, underscoring broad demand across precious metals rather than a gold-only move.
Fed Chair Uncertainty Adds Fuel to Gold’s Rally
Beyond geopolitics, gold is drawing support from uncertainty surrounding the future direction of the US Federal Reserve. President Trump confirmed that interviews for the next Fed Chair have concluded, keeping markets alert to a potentially more dovish appointment.
A policy shift toward easier monetary conditions would lower real yields and weaken the US dollar, historically favorable conditions for gold. With rates currently expected to remain unchanged at 3.50%–3.75%, investors are increasingly focused on forward guidance rather than the decision itself.
Key catalysts traders are watching include:
- ADP Employment Change
- US Consumer Confidence data
- Federal Reserve rate statement and press conference
Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook: Consolidation, Not Reversal
From a technical perspective, gold is trading near $5,070, pausing after meeting resistance at $5,110–$5,115. On the 2-hour chart, price remains above a rising trendline that has guided the rally since late January, keeping the broader structure bullish.
Recent candles show smaller bodies and mixed wicks, a sign of consolidation rather than distribution. Immediate support sits near $4,990, followed by a deeper buffer around $4,900, where prior consolidation and horizontal demand intersect.
Momentum indicators suggest cooling, not weakness. RSI has eased into the low-60s from overbought territory, a common reset phase during strong trends. As long as RSI holds above 50, upside bias remains intact.
What Comes Next for Gold Prices
If buyers reclaim $5,115, gold could extend toward $5,175 and $5,230. A sustained break below $4,990 would signal a deeper pullback toward $4,840, though the broader uptrend would remain intact unless that level fails decisively.
Trade idea: Buy pullbacks near $5,000, target $5,175, stop below $4,900.
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