Bitcoin Battles $76,000 Support: Strategy “Buys the Dip” as BlackRock ETF Investors Sink into the Red
The Bitcoin (BTC) market is today a theater of severe psychological and technical pressure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading under $77,000, experiencing a 2.2% decline in the last 24 hours after a significant drop over the weekend.
- MicroStrategy's average cost basis of $76,040 was briefly breached, prompting CEO Michael Saylor to advocate for 'buying the dip'.
- BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust has seen negative returns, with a $1.1 billion outflow as investors shift to safer assets like gold.
- Analysts predict a potential downside target of $60,000 for Bitcoin, while a gap near $84,000 may offer short-term relief.
The Bitcoin BTC/USD market is today a theater of severe psychological and technical pressure. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering under $77,000, marking a 2.2% fall in the last 24 hours. This stagnation follows a horrific weekend that saw the leading cryptocurrency drop to ten-month lows, spurred by the choice of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh to run the central bank, a move perceived by markets as a tilt toward hawkish fiscal constraint.
Saylor’s Signal: Defending the $76,040 Cost Basis
As Bitcoin plummeted to a Sunday low of $75,892, it temporarily breached a vital psychological floor: the average cost basis of MicroStrategy. With more than 712,647 BTC, the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury in the world briefly lost money.
Michael Saylor, executive chairman of Strategy, announced a defiant “buy the dip” position in typical way. Posting a chart of the firm’s $55 billion in purchases since 2020 with the headline “More Orange,” Saylor hinted to more accumulation. The breach of MicroStrategy’s $76,040 cost basis served as a clear warning of the current fragility of the market, even though the company is still substantially profitable over a five-year horizon.
Institutional Exodus: IBIT Returns Turn Negative
The sentiment shift isn’t limited to corporate treasuries. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), the world’s largest spot Bitcoin ETF, has struck a grim milestone. According to data from Unlimited Funds, the aggregate, dollar-weighted investor position in IBIT is currently underwater.
While early 2024 entrants remain in profit, the massive inflows seen during Bitcoin’s surge toward $90,000 have left the “average” dollar invested in the fund at a loss. This comes alongside a significant $1.1 billion weekly outflow from Bitcoin funds, as investors flee into “debasement trades” like gold, which recently saw its market valuation increase by $2.2 trillion in a single session.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis: The Bearish EMA Crossover
From a technical perspective, the “bull market” structure has incurred substantial damage. Analysts refer to the fall of the $80,700 “true market mean” as the moment the trend shifted. More worrying is the 21-week and 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) crossing. This negative indication last appeared in April 2022, preceding that year’s severe winter.
According to XForceGlobal’s Elliott Wave analysis, the failure to defend the November low of $82,000 has undermined the basic bullish framework. The present price action is currently considered as a corrective “C” wave or a macro ending diagonal, both of which signal additional room for the slide to develop until a genuine bottom is discovered.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: The $60,000 Target vs. The $84,000 Magnet
The route forward for Bitcoin is divided between short-term relief and medium-term pain:
- The Bear Case: Analysts are converging around $60,000 as a main downside objective. This level aligns with historical Fibonacci extensions and would reflect a full distribution of the existing “triangular” breakdown. Deeper liquidity targets lie as low as $49,180 if the macro bearish regime prevails.
- The Bull Case (Relief): A glimmer of hope lingers in the CME Group’s futures market. A recently opened “gap” close to $84,000 frequently serves as a price magnet. Many traders predict Bitcoin to bridge this gap within the “next few weeks,” producing a relief rally before potentially retesting lower supports.
In the end, the “safe trigger” for bulls is still Bitcoin’s capacity to recover the $80,700 mark. Until then, the market remains in a defensive posture, seeking clarification on Fed policy and institutional appetite.
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