XAU/USD – Daily Chart
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Forex Signals Feb 3: AMD, Merck, PepsiCo Q4 Earnings Preview as RBA Holds the Interest Rates
=Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Merck (MRK), and PepsiCo (PEP) will release their Q4 2025 earnings results today, giving markets fresh...
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Last updated: Tuesday, February 3, 2026
Quick overview
- AMD, Merck, and PepsiCo are reporting Q4 2025 earnings today, providing insights into tech, healthcare, and consumer staples.
- Equity markets rebounded after tensions with Iran eased, with significant gains driven by a surprising ISM manufacturing survey.
- The US dollar strengthened slightly, while Treasury rates rose amid hawkish comments from a retiring Fed official.
- Gold and silver prices showed volatility, with gold finding support after a sharp decline, while Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced significant price movements.
Live BTC/USD Chart
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MARKETS TREND
=Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Merck (MRK), and PepsiCo (PEP) will release their Q4 2025 earnings results today, giving markets fresh insights into consumer staples, healthcare, and technology.
Stocks Rebound from the Dip
Equity futures were lower in the pre-market, but they stabilized before the open, and then there was a significant bounce when tensions with Iran entirely subsided, pushing crude oil back toward $60. The “real economy” stocks benefited even more from the ISM manufacturing survey, which was a major surprise. It increased by the most amount in a month since 2020, and new orders soared along with the transportation and industrial sectors. Perhaps it’s only been a month, but both the Chicago PMI on Friday and the S&P Global survey were excellent.
USD Continues to Recuperate
The US dollar increased somewhat as a result of the data, although Treasury rates increased 4-5 basis points throughout the curve. We also heard some hawkish comments from Bostic but he’s single week from retirement so I wouldn’t place much trust in those.
Volatility in Commodities Continues
The absence of US strikes on Iran and Friday’s negotiations quickly eliminated the war premium in the oil market. At the open, it was straight down and remained so. Early in the Asian session, gold and silver attempted to make a return after finding support after declining by 25% over the previous two days.
Key Market Events to Watch: Earnings Reports Tuesday
With AMD representing the semiconductor cycle, Merck offering visibility into healthcare earnings durability, and PepsiCo serving as a barometer for global consumer demand, today’s results should provide a well-rounded read on both growth and defensiveness across the market.
AMD Earnings Expectations – Q4 2025
Headline Consensus
- Earnings per share (EPS): Expected at $1.32
- Revenue: Forecast at $9.6 billion
- Comparison to Q4 2024:
- EPS up from $1.09
- Revenue up from $7.7 billion
Source: Bloomberg analyst consensus estimates
Data Center Segment
- Expected revenue: $4.97 billion
- Year-over-year growth: +29%
- Q4 2024 comparison: $3.86 billion
- Key driver: Continued strength in AI and server processor demand
- Client (PC & Laptop) Segment
- Expected revenue: $2.9 billion
- Primary exposure: Consumer and enterprise PCs, notebooks, and laptops
- Market focus: Recovery in PC demand and product mix improvements
Gaming Segment
- Projected revenue: $855 million
- Year-over-year growth: +52%
- Q4 2024 comparison: $563 million
- Drivers: Console refresh cycles and stronger semi-custom chip demand
Overall Takeaway
- Growth profile: Broad-based revenue expansion across all major segments
- Investor focus: Sustainability of data center momentum and margins heading into 2026
PepsiCo (PEP) – Q4 2025
- Report Timing: Before Market Open (BMO)
Focus Areas:
- Pricing power versus volume growth
- Input cost trends and margin resilience
- International demand, especially in emerging markets
Why It Matters:
- PepsiCo offers insight into global consumer health and inflation pass-through
- Implied Move: ~2.2%
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK)
- Quarter: Q4 2025
- Release time: Before Market Open (BMO)
- Consensus EPS: $2.01
- Focus areas: Pharmaceutical pipeline updates, Keytruda sales momentum, and guidance for 2026.
Gold Starts the Rebound After Finding Support at $4,400
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. In December, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above the $5,000 mark for the first time during Asian hours and extended the rally in New York, printing a fresh record high near $5,111 before retreating below $5,000 late in the session. But buyers returned into Asian session and XAU climbed to $5,598 but pulled back below $5,000 and rebounded back up in the most volatile day ever.
USD/JPY Rebounds Above 155
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips as the pair found support at the 20 daily SMA (gray) and has rebounded more than 200 pips off that MA but reversed after the 25 bps rate cut from the FED. The price approached $160 but reversed after the BOJ meeting and fell 8 cents but found support at $152 at the 100 daily SMA (red) and rebounded above 155.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Fall Stalls at 2025 Low
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $80K before finding support at the 100 weekly SMA (green). A rebound followed, sending BTC near $100 is the first major text for Bitcoin buyers. However BTC returned lower and fell below $80K, breaking below the but the 100 weekly SMA (green) but the decline stopped at the support and resistance zone above $65K.
BTC/USD – Weekly Chart
Ethereum Heads to $2,000
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2,500.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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