Quick overview

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Fundamental action suggests that a larger  Silver rally, similar to the 1979–1980 event, might be coming. A significant gap between paper contracts and physical inventory has worsened the COMEX default, especially in the silver market.

 

The “default” scenario is based on a large difference between the amount of metal promised in future contracts and the actual metal in exchange vaults. Some analysts say silver prices could “reset,” possibly rising toward or above $200 per ounce, if the exchange cannot meet physical delivery demands.

COMEX is said to have between 103 and 120 million ounces of “registered” silver (metal ready for delivery) in stock. Open interest stands at about 429 million ounces.

The “Run” on the Bank indicates that the exchange could run out of silver if even 25% of contract holders demanded physical delivery instead of cash. Recent activity shows that in January 2026 alone, an unusual 40 million ounces were ordered for delivery.

The Bull Case (Robert Kiyosaki and Clive Thompson): Kiyosaki expected silver to hit $200 in 2026, citing a weakening fiat system and industrial demand from solar and AI. Clive Thompson warns that by March 2026, COMEX might run out of deliverable silver. Since gold is the ultimate “anti-dollar” hedge, a silver default could also impact gold,  influence credit markets, and the broader financial system, as suggested by Bill Holter’s Systemic Risk Case.

The Skeptical Case (CPM Group): Traditional analysts often say that exchange rules prevent a full collapse by allowing Force Majeure or cash-only settlements, making a true “default” impossible.