Bitcoin Holds $69K as Top Traders Turn Bearish Despite Historic Buy Signals
After a tumultuous period in which prices fell to $60,130 before rising beyond $72,000, Bitcoin is currently consolidating at $69,000, down
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently consolidating at $69,000 after a recent price fluctuation, with top traders showing caution in taking long positions.
- Despite a significant decline in Bitcoin's price, US-listed ETFs have seen net inflows of $516 million, indicating a divergence between institutional investors and derivatives traders.
- Technical models suggest Bitcoin is undervalued, with potential gains of 170% to 220% if historical trends hold, but bearish warnings persist regarding possible further declines.
- The outlook for Bitcoin suggests consolidation between $60,000 and $75,000, with a potential upside to $150,000–$180,000 in the next 12–18 months.
After a tumultuous period in which prices fell to $60,130 before rising beyond $72,000, Bitcoin BTC/USD is currently consolidating at $69,000, down 1.7% over the previous day. Top traders are still hesitant to take long positions in Bitcoin, even if technical indications indicate that the cryptocurrency has entered historically major accumulation zones.
Bitcoin Derivatives Markets Signal Extreme Caution
Despite Bitcoin trading close to 15-month lows, market makers and whales have methodically cut leveraged long bets, according to data from major exchanges. The long-to-short ratio for top traders at Binance fell from 1.93 to 1.20, which was a 30-day low. Even more dramatically, OKX’s ratio fell from 4.3 to 1.7, which was the same time that forced liquidations totaled about $1 billion.
This cautious stance stands in stark contrast to past trends, which generally saw aggressive institutional accumulation in response to deep corrections. The hesitation is a result of residual doubt after Bitcoin’s precipitous 52% decline from its peak of $126,220 in October 2025.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows Suggest Institutional Divergence
The tale of spot Bitcoin ETFs is distinct from that of futures traders retreating. US-listed ETFs have seen net inflows of $516 million since Friday, reversing three days of outflows. This comes after $2.2 billion in withdrawals between January 27 and February 5, which may have been caused by a leveraged fund collapse in Asia.
There may be a difference between short-term speculators and long-term institutional accumulators, as evidenced by the reversal in ETF flows while derivatives traders maintain their skepticism.
BTC/USD Technical Models Flash Deep Value
Bitcoin has entered areas that have historically preceded significant rallies, according to a number of valuation systems. The shifting realized price of Bitcoin is $42,000, but the realized price, which is the average cost basis of all BTC that was last moved onchain, is close to $55,000. Rallying from these levels has historically produced gains of 170% to 220%, with the potential to reach above $150,000 in the upcoming cycle.
According to the power law quantile model, Bitcoin is significantly undervalued, sitting close to the 14th percentile of its long-term price corridor. Currently, the fifth percentile of the model, which has cycle floors marked, falls between $50,000 and $62,000.
Bearish Warnings Persist
Some analysts do not think the bottom is in. Bitcoin is down 31% after its weekly RSI 37 break, according to cryptocurrency investor Jelle. Recent cycles have bottomed around 40–43% drawdowns, suggesting a possible slide toward $52,000. In a more pessimistic outlook, expert Sherlock pointed out that the BTC/Gold ratio has broken below 15–16, indicating that if history repeats itself, there may be a pullback toward $38,000–$40,000.
Bitcoin Acting Like Growth Stock, Not Digital Gold
According to grayscale research, the price of Bitcoin is increasingly more like software stocks than gold. Since early 2024, this trend has grown stronger, with Bitcoin’s 50% decline coinciding with the fall of software equity due to concerns about AI disruption. The fixed supply of Bitcoin supports Grayscale’s long-term positive stance, but short-term trends point to a closer integration with conventional risk assets.
Bitcoin Price Outlook: Consolidation Then Recovery
In the upcoming weeks and months, Bitcoin is expected to consolidate between $60,000 and $75,000 based on positioning data and technical indications. According to historical trends, realized price band tests are usually followed by accumulation periods of six to eight months before fresh highs appear.
In the most likely scenario, when markets reset, Bitcoin will form a base around $65,000 to $70,000. However, if stocks encounter fresh volatility, a final surrender toward $52,000–$55,000 cannot be ruled out.
Current valuation levels offer a strong risk-reward ratio for longer time horizons, with a potential upside of 170–220 percent, aiming for $150,000–$180,000 in 12–18 months. Prolonged ETF inflows, the stabilization of the BTC/Gold ratio above 15, and the restoration of professional trader leverage as market confidence recovers are important drivers.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
- Read our latest reviews on: Avatrade, Exness, HFM and XM
Save