GBP/USD Forecast: GDP Miss, Hot NFP Push Cable to 1.3609 Ahead of US CPI
The GBP/USD pair is under heavy selling pressure in Friday’s European session, trading around 1.3609. Earlier, it tried to hold above 1.3650
Quick overview
- The GBP/USD pair is experiencing significant selling pressure, currently trading around 1.3609 due to weak UK economic data.
- UK GDP growth was only 0.1% in Q4 2025, leading to increased expectations for a Bank of England rate cut.
- The US Dollar remains strong, bolstered by positive jobs data and a robust job market, with traders awaiting today's US CPI report.
- Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for GBP/USD, with key support levels at 1.3583 and 1.3551.
The GBP/USD pair is under heavy selling pressure in Friday’s European session, trading around 1.3609. Earlier, it tried to hold above 1.3650, but the recovery was weak. Ongoing concerns about slow UK growth and a strong US job market continue to push the pair lower.
UK GDP Miss: BoE Rate Cut Bets Intensify
The British Pound has been weak lately because of several disappointing reports from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
- Quarterly Growth: UK GDP grew by only 0.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025, falling short of the expected 0.2%.
- Annual Performance: Year-on-year growth slowed to 1.0%, which is below the 1.2% forecast.
- Industrial Slump: In December, manufacturing fell by 0.5% and industrial production dropped by 0.9%, showing that the economy is cooling across several sectors.
These numbers have increased expectations for a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut at the March 19 meeting. Futures markets now see a higher chance that the BoE will act to support the economy, especially since the services sector is showing no growth.
US Dollar Strength: Jobs Data and Inflation Jitters
Meanwhile, the US Dollar is still seen as a safe haven. The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on February 11 showed 130,000 new jobs, almost twice the 70,000 expected, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%.
Yesterday, Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 227,000, which supports the Dollar’s strength. Although this is a bit higher than the best estimates, it still points to a strong job market, letting the Federal Reserve keep its current approach.
Traders are now watching today’s US CPI report at 13:30 GMT. If core inflation is above 2.5%, the USD could rise further, making it harder for the GBP to recover.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Pressure Builds Below 1.3625
The GBP/USD 2-hour chart shows a weakening technical setup. The pair keeps making lower highs and lower lows after being repeatedly pushed down from a falling trendline that started near 1.3760.
- Moving Averages: Right now, the price is below the 50-period moving average at 1.3642 and is testing the 200-period moving average at 1.3623. If it stays below the 200-MA, this could mean the trend is turning more strongly bearish.
- Momentum: The RSI is now below the 50 mark, showing that buyers are losing interest and sellers are taking control.
- Key Levels: The first support level is at 1.3583, with a lower target at 1.3551. To ease the current bearish outlook, the pair needs to move back above 1.3671.
Trade Idea: If the price breaks clearly below 1.3600, consider a short position with a target at the 1.3550 level and a stop-loss above 1.3645.
Moving Ahead: What to Watch
The pair will likely stay under pressure unless the UK delivers unexpectedly strong news or US inflation drops more than expected.
- US CPI (Today): US CPI (Today): This is the main factor likely to drive the next big move of about 100 pips.
- BoE Rhetoric: Watch for any comments from Governor Bailey about the GDP shortfall.
- US Jobless Claims (Weekly): Ongoing strength in the job market will support the idea that US interest rates will stay high for longer.
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