silver
Silver Price Forecast: XAG Finds Its Footing as Markets Await Fed and PCE Signals
After one of the most dramatic corrections in its history, silver has steadied, with this week’s economic data offering a potential catalyst
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Last updated: Sunday, February 15, 2026
Quick overview
- Silver experienced a dramatic rally that saw prices surge above $120 before a violent correction led to a drop of over 40% in a single session.
- Despite the sharp decline, silver's long-term uptrend remains intact, with key support levels holding and buyers stepping in after pullbacks.
- Upcoming economic data, including Federal Reserve minutes and GDP figures, could influence silver's stabilization and potential recovery.
- Silver's industrial demand, particularly from solar energy and electric vehicles, provides a strong foundation that differentiates it from purely monetary assets.
Live SILVER Chart
SILVER
MARKETS TREND
After one of the most dramatic corrections in its history, silver has steadied, with this week’s economic data offering a potential catalyst for a more sustainable recovery.
A Historic Rally Meets a Brutal Reality Check
Silver delivered an explosive rally into early 2026, driven by speculative momentum, leveraged positioning, and strengthening demand narratives. Prices surged above $120 in a remarkably short span, marking one of the most aggressive advances in modern precious metals history.
But the rally ended abruptly. In the final days of January, silver experienced a violent reversal. Within a single session, prices plunged more than 40%, briefly collapsing below $64. In percentage terms, it was among the sharpest one-day declines the metal has ever recorded.
The speed of the move triggered widespread forced liquidations across futures contracts, options, and leveraged exchange-traded products. What began as a technical correction quickly turned into a cascade as overcrowded bullish positioning unraveled.
While gold also experienced turbulence, silver’s higher volatility amplified the damage. The episode served as a stark reminder that leveraged momentum trades can unwind far faster than they build.
Technical Structure Signals Buyer Resilience
From a technical perspective, silver’s broader uptrend has not been invalidated. The break below $64 was significant, but the decline was ultimately contained by key moving averages. Support first emerged near the 50-day simple moving average, followed by stronger buying interest around the 100-day SMA.
Silver Chart Daily – Buyers Jump In After Every Pullback
That support held. Buyers stepped in decisively, and silver rebounded sharply, climbing back above $80 early in the new week. This behavior suggests that longer-term participants remain engaged, using pullbacks to rebuild exposure rather than abandoning the market altogether.
Key resistance levels now sit near $100, followed by the prior highs around $117–$121. On the downside, initial support is defined by the recent lows near $69 and $64.
All Eyes on This Week’s Macro Catalysts
The coming week could determine whether stabilization evolves into a sustained rebound.
Investors will closely analyze minutes from the latest meeting of the Federal Reserve. The Fed recently held rates steady at 3.50–3.75% in a split decision, with two governors dissenting in favor of a rate cut. Markets will parse the minutes for clues regarding internal debates and future policy direction.
Friday brings preliminary fourth-quarter U.S. GDP data. A moderate cooling from the prior quarter’s robust 4.4% annualized growth could be interpreted as healthy normalization. However, a sharper slowdown may heighten recession concerns.
Also on Friday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—will be pivotal. Firmer inflation readings could delay rate-cut expectations, potentially pressuring silver. Softer data, by contrast, could ease real yields and support precious metals.
A Reset Rather Than a Structural Breakdown
Despite the severity of the drop, the longer-term case for silver has not been dismantled. Instead, the correction appears to have functioned as a necessary reset.
Periods of excessive leverage rarely unwind gradually. They tend to culminate in emotional selloffs that flush out weak hands and normalize positioning. In silver’s case, the collapse cooled speculative excess, reduced leverage, and forced a recalibration of risk.
Historically, such shakeouts often create healthier foundations for future advances. While confidence was shaken, longer-term conviction among industrial users and strategic investors appears intact.
Silver has since stabilized, suggesting that forced liquidation pressure has largely subsided.
Policy and Margin Moves Add to Turbulence
Monetary policy narratives contributed to the volatility. Market interpretation of shifting central bank leadership dynamics has been mixed, with some traders viewing recent commentary as incrementally hawkish. That perception supported the U.S. dollar and real yields—both traditional headwinds for precious metals.
At the same time, CME Group raised margin requirements for Comex gold and silver futures. Higher margin thresholds increased the cost of leveraged exposure at precisely the moment volatility peaked.
Such measures often accelerate deleveraging but also help stabilize markets by reducing speculative excess. In many past cycles, margin hikes have coincided with late-stage capitulation rather than prolonged downturns.
China also moved to dampen speculative activity by suspending trading in certain commodity-linked funds. Together, these actions intensified short-term selling but may ultimately contribute to a more balanced market structure.
Industrial Demand Remains the Anchor
Unlike gold, silver benefits from significant industrial usage, providing a structural demand base.
Solar energy production is a key driver, with photovoltaic panels consuming substantial volumes of silver. The ongoing global energy transition, alongside growth in electric vehicles, power electronics, and advanced manufacturing, continues to support baseline demand.
Emerging-market electrification efforts—particularly across Asia—add further momentum. Reports of elevated physical premiums in Shanghai suggest that supply conditions remain tight and that physical buyers have not retreated meaningfully despite the price shock.
This industrial foundation differentiates silver from purely monetary assets and provides resilience during financial turbulence.
A Crucial Inflection Point
Silver’s dramatic correction has reshaped the near-term technical landscape, but it has not erased the structural drivers underpinning demand. The market now appears to be transitioning from forced liquidation to consolidation.
This week’s macro events may provide clarity. If economic data align with expectations of moderating growth and controlled inflation, silver could find renewed momentum.
After enduring one of the most violent shakeouts in its history, the metal has stabilized. With leverage reduced and industrial demand intact, the groundwork may be forming for a more measured—and potentially more durable—recovery.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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