Bitcoin Price Forecast: Can BTC Survive the $60,000 Test Amid “Orderly Deleveraging”?
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the third week of February 2026 facing strong bearish sentiment. After reaching a record high of $126,080...
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is experiencing strong bearish sentiment, having dropped to $68,450 after reaching a record high of $126,080 in October 2025.
- Analysts describe the current downturn as an 'orderly deleveraging,' contrasting it with the panic seen in previous market crashes.
- Despite the price decline, the Bitcoin network remains resilient, with a recovering hashrate and ongoing institutional interest in buying the dip.
- The technical outlook suggests Bitcoin is trapped in a descending channel, with critical support at $67,172 and resistance at $71,600.
Bitcoin (BTC) starts the third week of February 2026 facing strong bearish sentiment. After reaching a record high of $126,080 in October 2025, its value has dropped by about half over the past four months.
As the new trading week begins, everyone is watching to see if the $68,000 level is just a pause or the start of a longer downturn.
Market Snapshot: Orderly Deleveraging or Panic?
Analysts say the 2026 downturn is an “orderly deleveraging,” not a sudden crash. Even though prices are falling, the market does not show the panic seen in 2022.
- Live Price: $68,450 USD (down 2.5% in 24 hours).
- Monthly Performance: On track for its fourth consecutive negative week with 25% losses over the past 30 days.
- Trading Volume: Volume remains steady at $38 to $40 billion, showing that traders are active but careful.
- ETF Activity: Spot Bitcoin ETFs lost a total of $641 million in the past 10 days, but BlackRock’s IBIT is still seeing institutional investors buy the dip.
Fundamental Resilience: Mining and Network Health
Even though the price is down, the Bitcoin network itself remains strong.
1. Hashrate Recovery
After a 20% dip caused by winter weather and low profitability, the global hashrate has recovered to 1.0–1.2 ZH/s. This resilience shows that high-efficiency miners are still profitable even at $68k, although “hashprice” lows of $33/PH/day are testing smaller operators.
2. Mining Difficulty Adjustments
The network’s difficulty recently dropped by 11%, the biggest change since the 2021 China ban. This makes it easier for the miners who remain, helping to balance the ecosystem.
3. Institutional “Buy the Dip” Moves
Even with the current uncertainty, institutional interest is still strong and influenced by politics. Trump Media & Technology Group just filed with the SEC for a Truth Social Bitcoin and Ether ETF, showing that politically connected investors are getting ready to enter the market, no matter the short-term ups and downs.
Technical Analysis: Trapped in a Descending Channel
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is having trouble moving out of a clear downward trend that has shaped its price since late 2025.
| Technical Indicator | Price Level | Significance |
| 0.382 Fib Resistance | $71,600 | The “Breakout” level; a close above this invalidates the bear trend. |
| 0.236 Fib Support | $67,172 | The current battleground. If this fails, expect a slide to $60k. |
| Psychological Support | $60,000 | The “Must-Hold” floor to prevent a drop to $45,000. |
| 50-Day / 200-Day EMA | Bearish Cross | Signals continued medium-term downward pressure. |
The Verdict: Weekly Bias
The forecast for the week of February 16, 2026, is between bearish and neutral.
Bitcoin is likely to keep falling unless it can get back above $71,600 and stay there. Traders should pay attention to the mining difficulty adjustment on February 20. If the hashrate rises quickly but the price does not, some miners may give up, which could signal a market bottom.
Trade Idea: If Bitcoin drops below $67,000, consider short trades with a target of $63,900. On the other hand, those looking to go long should wait for a daily close above $71,600, aiming for $75,200.
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