Moody’s Stock MCO Heads to $500 Quickly as Q4 Earnings Strength Aids the Recovery
Moody's Corporation shares rebounded after a sharp month-long selloff, and a better-than-expected Q4 report helped to temporarily boost...
Quick overview
- Moody's Corporation shares rebounded after a month-long selloff, driven by a stronger-than-expected Q4 earnings report.
- The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.89 billion, exceeding expectations and reflecting broad-based growth across its segments.
- Technical support at the 200-week moving average helped stabilize investor sentiment, contributing to a more than 10% rebound in stock price.
- Continued earnings execution and favorable market conditions will be crucial for sustaining the stock's upward momentum.
Moody’s Corporation shares rebounded after a sharp month-long selloff, and a better-than-expected Q4 report helped to temporarily boost confidence.
Earnings Provide a Near-Term Catalyst
Moody’s delivered a solid fourth quarter for 2025, modestly surpassing revenue expectations and posting a meaningful earnings beat. Growth was broad-based across both Moody’s Analytics and Moody’s Investor Services, supported by strength in transaction-driven corporate finance activity and stable recurring revenue streams.
While a few sub-segments slightly missed estimates, overall margin expansion and double-digit revenue growth reflected operational resilience heading into 2026. The results were strong enough to act as a catalyst for a stock that had recently been under notable pressure.
Technical Support Sparks Rebound
Prior to the earnings release, Moody’s stock had fallen steeply from near $550 to around $400, marking roughly a 20% pullback. The decline tested investor confidence, particularly as broader market volatility increased.
However, shares found technical support at the 200-week simple moving average (purple) last week. That level appeared to stabilize sentiment, and the positive earnings report helped fuel a rebound of more than 10% from recent lows.
MCO Chart Weekly – The 200 SMA Held As Support Again
The recovery suggests the recent drop may represent a corrective retracement rather than a structural breakdown. Still, while momentum has improved and the stock may target the $500 region next, sustained upside will likely depend on continued earnings execution and supportive market conditions.
Moody’s Q4 2025 Earnings Report
Headline Results
Revenue: $1.89 billion
- Up 13% year over year
- Above consensus estimate of $1.88 billion
- Revenue surprise: +0.72%
Earnings Per Share (EPS): $3.64
- Up from $2.62 in Q4 2024
- Above consensus estimate of $3.45
- EPS surprise: +5.51%
Segment Performance Overview
Moody’s Analytics (MA)
- Total Revenue: $943 million
- $939.12 million estimated, +9.3% year over year
Sub-Segments
- Data and Information: $235 million
- Slightly below $236.62 million estimate, +7.8% YoY
Research and Insights:
- $258 million
- Below $260.68 million estimate, +6.2% YoY
Decision Solutions:
- $450 million, Above $440.87 million estimate
- +11.9% YoY
Moody’s Investor Services (MIS)
- Total Revenue: $946 million, In line with $945.96 million estimate
- +16.9% year over year
Revenue Breakdown
- Recurring Revenue: $353 million, Above $348.05 million estimate
- +9% YoY
- Transaction Revenue: $593 million, Above $590.9 million estimate
- +22.3% YoY
By Asset Class
- Corporate Finance: $480 million, Above $467.41 million estimate
- +26% YoY
Structured Finance:
- $139 million, Below $149.75 million estimate
- +0.7% YoY
- Financial Institutions: $169 million, Slightly below $173.41 million estimate
- +1.2% YoY
Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance:
- $149 million, Above $139.06 million estimate
- +29.6% YoY
Additional Metrics
- Reported Moody’s Analytics revenue (company summary figure): $946 million Vs. $945 million estimate
- +9.2% YoY
Key Takeaways
- Broad-based revenue growth across both major segments.
- Strong contribution from Corporate Finance and Public, Project & Infrastructure Finance within Investor Services.
- Decision Solutions drove the bulk of Analytics outperformance.
- EPS growth significantly outpaced revenue growth, reflecting operating leverage.
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