Glencore Share Price Heads to Record Highs on $2B Payout, Copper Deal Despite Soft Earnings
Shares of Glencore plc jumped on Rio Tinto merger negotiations, fell as those talks broke down, and are now rising following a strong 2025..
Quick overview
- Glencore plc shares experienced volatility due to failed takeover talks with Rio Tinto but rebounded after a strong 2025 earnings report.
- The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $13.5 billion for 2025, driven primarily by robust performance in metals like copper and zinc.
- Despite positive financial results, challenges remain, including price weakness in the energy segment and ongoing operational risks in mining.
- Looking ahead, Glencore aims for significant copper production growth, emphasizing the importance of disciplined execution and market strength.
Shares of Glencore plc jumped on Rio Tinto merger negotiations, fell as those talks broke down, and are now rising following a strong 2025 earnings report.
Share Price Volatility Around Deal Speculation
At the start of the year, Glencore’s share price rallied sharply as market chatter around a potential combination with Rio Tinto reignited investor optimism. The prospect of large-scale consolidation in the mining sector fueled expectations of synergies and improved scale in copper and other critical minerals.
However, as negotiations failed to materialize into a transaction, the rally faded. The stock pulled back, reflecting disappointment and the realization that takeover speculation alone was not enough to sustain elevated valuations. More recently, renewed buying interest has emerged following the release of Glencore’s 2025 earnings, suggesting fundamentals are once again driving sentiment.
Solid 2025 Financial Performance
Glencore reported adjusted EBITDA of $13.5 billion for 2025, supported by a stronger second half. Industrial operations generated the majority of earnings, with metals—particularly copper and zinc—providing meaningful contributions.
The company met its production guidance across key commodities for the second consecutive year, underscoring operational reliability. A $2 billion dividend declaration signaled confidence in cash generation and balance sheet stability.
Looking ahead, management highlighted a robust copper growth pipeline, with long-term production potential exceeding 2 million tons by 2035. Given the strategic importance of copper in electrification and energy transition trends, this remains a central pillar of the company’s growth narrative.
A Powerful Uptrend Gains Momentum
Glencore’s share price has been trending higher since April last year, rebounding from around R53 and nearly doubling in less than twelve months, sending BLNJ share price above R115 early in February, placing it firmly back within reach of its all-time high near R122, last seen in 2022.
GLNJ Chart Daily – The Resistance Has Been Broken
We have seen a couple of pullbacks since then, but the zone around R100 has turned into support and now the stock is trading above R100 again. This sustained technical strength has attracted renewed institutional interest, with takeover speculation acting as a catalyst rather than the sole driver of gains.
Areas of Caution
Despite the positive headline figures, challenges remain. The energy segment, including steelmaking coal, faced price weakness—particularly in the first half of the year—pressuring earnings. While metals offset some of that softness, earnings remain inherently sensitive to commodity price swings.
Safety also remains an area of focus. Although fatalities in 2025 were the lowest in company history, two incidents underscore the ongoing operational risks in large-scale mining activities.
In addition, Glencore’s working capital requirements could rise in periods of higher commodity prices, potentially constraining free cash flow. The company is also exploring infrastructure monetization opportunities, but no definitive agreements have been reached, leaving the timing and value realization uncertain.
Glencore plc – 2025 Earnings Summary
Financial Performance
- Adjusted EBITDA: $13.5 billion for FY2025.
- ~$10 billion generated from the industrial segment.
- Industrial EBITDA: $9.9 billion.
- Metals contributed approximately $7 billion.
- Marketing EBIT: $2.9 billion, driven largely by strong metals trading performance.
- Cash Flow from Operations: $8.7 billion.
- Working Capital Reversal: $1.6 billion improvement in the second half.
Balance Sheet & Funding
- Net Funding Ratio: Reduced to 10% from 14.5% at the start of the year.
- RMI (Readily Marketable Inventories): Increased by $3 billion, primarily reflecting higher copper prices.
- Net Debt Target: $10 billion.
- Introduced a “surplus capital warehousing” concept to manage excess capital more flexibly.
Capital Allocation
- Dividend Declared: $2 billion to shareholders.
- Distributions & Buybacks:
- $1.2 billion in cash returns.
- $2 billion in share buybacks.
- Net CapEx (2025): $6.9 billion.
- CapEx Guidance: ~$6.5 billion average annually over the next three years.
Forward Outlook
- Spot Illustrative EBITDA (2026): $18 billion+ (based on current commodity prices).
- Copper Production: Targeting ~1 million tons annually by 2028–2029.
- Cost Reduction Program: $1 billion in efficiency initiatives across 300 sites.
Conclusion: Glencore’s latest results demonstrate operational resilience and solid metals-driven earnings, helping restore confidence after the failed Rio Tinto deal dampened takeover hopes. However, commodity price volatility, capital intensity, and sector-specific risks suggest that gains may depend more on disciplined execution and copper market strength than on renewed M&A speculation alone.
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