Gold Weekly Outlook: XAU/USD Smashes $5,100 as Trump’s Iran Ultimatum & “Tariff Chaos” Fuel Safe-Haven Firestorm
Gold is once again seen as the top safe-haven asset. As the week ends, spot gold prices have jumped almost 2.3%, closing above $5,100...
Quick overview
- Gold is regaining its status as a top safe-haven asset, with prices rising nearly 2.3% to close above $5,100.
- Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran, along with a recent Supreme Court ruling affecting tariffs, are driving investors towards gold.
- In India, strong demand during the festive season has pushed 24K gold prices up significantly, reaching close to Rs 1,58,500 per 10 grams.
- Technical analysis suggests a bullish outlook for gold, with key resistance levels at $5,118 and $5,257 for the upcoming week.
Gold is once again seen as the top safe-haven asset. As the week ends, spot gold prices have jumped almost 2.3%, closing above $5,100. With the U.S. dollar weakening after a major Supreme Court decision and rising geopolitical tensions, gold could move toward $5,200 in the coming week.
The 10-Day Countdown: Middle East Tensions Rise
The primary fuel for this weekend’s rally is the escalating nuclear standoff between Washington and Tehran. In a dramatic move, President Donald Trump has issued a 10-to-15-day ultimatum for Iran to strike a deal or face “really bad things.”
Key Geopolitical Concerns:
- Military Buildup: Flight data shows a large increase in U.S. military transports and aerial tankers heading to bases in Qatar and Jordan.
- Naval Positioning: Two aircraft carrier strike groups are now within striking distance, marking the largest deployment in the region in decades.
- Safe-Haven Shift: Institutional traders are moving away from risk assets and into gold as the risk of limited military strikes increases.
Tariff Uncertainty: Supreme Court Ruling and White House Response
Adding to the volatility, a landmark Supreme Court ruling on Friday struck down President Trump’s broad use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose global tariffs.
This decision had two immediate effects:
- USD Decline: The ruling caused the U.S. Dollar to fall, making gold more affordable for buyers outside the U.S.
- Policy Risk Hedge: Investors quickly turned to gold as a way to protect against tariff uncertainty, while the administration announced a temporary 10% global tariff for 150 days to work around the court’s restrictions.
India’s Gold Rush: Rs 1.58 Lakh and Climbin
In India, strong demand from the festive and wedding season has combined with global safe-haven buying. As a result, 24K gold prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) rose by over Rs 1,300, with April futures trading close to Rs 1,58,500 per 10 grams.
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Weekly Outlook
Gold starts the new week with a strong bullish setup on the 2-hour and 4-hour charts. After holding the $4,988 support level mid-week, gold has continued to make higher highs.
Weekly Technical Highlights:
- Immediate Resistance: $5,118. If gold closes above this level for the week, the next target is $5,257.
- Dynamic Support: The 50-EMA at $4,988 and 200-EMA at $4,962 now serve as the main support levels for buyers.
- Momentum: The RSI remains in “Healthy Bullish” territory (60), suggesting the market is not yet overextended despite the $100+ intraday moves.
Key Support and Resistance for Feb 23–27
| Level | Type | Significance |
| $5,257 | Resistance | The secondary breakout target for the coming week. |
| $5,118 | Pivot | Reclaiming this level confirms a move toward the $5,400 all-time highs. |
| $4,988 | Support | Critical short-term floor; a break below shifts bias to neutral. |
The “Week Ahead” Trade Idea: Buy the Dip
With markets closed on Saturday, attention turns to the Asian open on Sunday evening.
- Strategy: Consider buying if gold retests the $5,050 to $5,080 range.
- Target: $5,150 for the short term and $5,257 for the mid-term.
- Stop Loss: Set below $4,980.
Final Outlook: If U.S.-Iran tensions stay high and the tariff situation continues to change, gold is likely to keep testing new highs.
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