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Forex Signals Feb 25: Nvidia Earnings Preview – Blackwell Ramp in Focus, HSBC, Snowflake, Salesforce Report
As NVIDIA Corporation gets ready for fiscal Q4 2026 earnings with soaring Data Center forecasts, investors' primary concerns are the speed..
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Last updated: Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Quick overview
- NVIDIA's upcoming Q4 2026 earnings are highly anticipated, with a focus on the profitability and ramp-up of its Blackwell platform amidst strong Data Center expectations.
- Recent selloffs in software stocks suggest a potential sentiment bottom, with notable recoveries in some heavily impacted names following renewed interest from partners.
- The U.S. dollar's movements reflect investor sentiment, initially rallying before reversing as equities gained momentum, highlighting currency market sensitivity.
- Attention is shifting towards geopolitical developments and upcoming earnings reports from major companies, including Salesforce and Snowflake, which will provide insights into enterprise software demand and cloud consumption.
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MARKETS TREND
As NVIDIA Corporation gets ready for fiscal Q4 2026 earnings with soaring Data Center forecasts, investors’ primary concerns are the speed and profitability of the company’s Blackwell ramp.
Software Stocks Show Signs of Sentiment Bottom
Monday’s sharp selloff in software stocks carried many of the hallmarks of capitulation. The rout appeared driven by panic, with investors seemingly attempting to exit positions at any price. Such indiscriminate selling often signals extreme negative sentiment, potentially marking a short-term bottom.
Yesterday’s rebound added weight to that view. A presentation hosted by Anthropic highlighted its ecosystem of partners, including several software companies that had been among the most heavily beaten-down names over the past month. The renewed attention helped spark meaningful recoveries across parts of the sector.
Select Names Rebound Sharply
Some of the hardest-hit stocks staged notable bounces. Thomson Reuters surged 11.5%, while the software-focused IGV ETF gained 1.8%, reflecting broader stabilization within the group.
Strength was not limited to software. Power and semiconductor stocks also extended their recent gains. AMD climbed 8% following news of a deal with Meta, reinforcing investor appetite for AI-linked chipmakers.
However, the recovery was not uniform. AI-exposed names such as EXPD and FICO continued to struggle, posting fresh declines and underscoring lingering selectivity within the market.
Dollar Tracks Equity Sentiment
The foreign exchange market largely mirrored equity movements. The U.S. dollar initially rallied when stock markets were flat, reflecting a cautious tone. As equities gathered momentum and risk appetite returned, the dollar reversed lower.
This pattern highlighted the continued sensitivity of currency markets to shifts in broader investor sentiment.
Economic Data and Fed Commentary
On the macro front, an improved consumer confidence report received little attention from traders. Market participants instead focused on Federal Reserve commentary, which continued to lean toward a wait-and-see approach. Policymakers signaled a preference to remain on the sidelines for another month or two as they assess incoming economic data.
Geopolitical Focus Ahead
Attention is now turning toward President Trump’s upcoming State of the Union address. Traders will be particularly attentive to any rhetoric concerning Iran, as geopolitical developments could quickly influence market direction.
Key Market Events to Watch Wednesday:
Nvidia’s Q4 print will likely hinge less on headline revenue and more on Blackwell commentary, FY2027 Data Center visibility, and margin durability. With expectations elevated and valuation reflecting strong AI dominance, guidance tone may ultimately drive the next major move.
Nvidia Q4 2026 Earnings Preview (Pointers)
Revenue Expectations
- Visible Alpha consensus sees total Q4 FY2026 revenue at $57.0B.
- Growth continues to be driven primarily by the Data Center segment.
- Data Center Q4 estimates increased from $52.7B (June 2025) to $60.1B currently (~15% rise).
- However, estimates have moderated slightly since November, signaling some recalibration.
- Current Q4 Data Center revenue range: $56.9B to $62.6B.
Blackwell (B-Series) Debate
- Strong demand from hyperscalers and AI infrastructure buildouts remains the key growth driver.
- Focus is on Nvidia’s Blackwell platform, positioned as a major leap in energy efficiency and cost optimization.
Concerns remain about:
- Timing of the revenue ramp
- Total addressable market (TAM)
- Sustainability of hyperscaler capex
B-series Q4 revenue estimates vary widely:
- Low: $7.1B
- High: $53.8B
- Consensus: $33.5B
Blackwell revenue expected to jump from ~$7.1B last year to $93.7B this year.
FY2027 Data Center consensus now stands at $311.0B, partly driven by rising B-series expectations.
Note:
- 31 analysts contribute to total Data Center estimates.
- Only 13 break out B-series specifically.
- Some analysts likely embed Blackwell directly into Data Center projections.
Margins and Profitability
- Q4 Data Center gross profit consensus: $46.4B, up 15% from $40.4B last June.
- FY2027 gross margin projected at 76.4%, slightly below FY2024–2025 (~78%).
FY2027 operating margin expected to rise to 68.1%, up from 63.8%, due to:
- Flat gross margin
- Lower relative expense growth
- Massive revenue scaling
FY2027 consensus P/E:
- 24x base case
- Range: 19x–29x
HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC)
- Report: Q4 2025 Earnings
- Timing: Before Market Open (BMO)
- Market Cap: ~$302.6 billion
Focus Areas:
- Net interest margins
- Asia exposure performance
- Capital return plans
- Credit quality trends
- Provides insight into global banking conditions and emerging market exposure.
- Sensitive to rate expectations and geopolitical developments.
🔹 Salesforce, Inc. (CRM)
- Report: Q4 2026 Earnings
- Timing: After Market Close (AMC)
- Expected EPS: 3.05
- Market Cap: ~$176.3 billion
Focus Areas:
- Enterprise software demand
- AI integration across products
- Subscription growth
- Margin expansion trajectory
- CRM’s results will gauge enterprise IT spending and AI monetization trends.
🔹 Snowflake Inc. (SNOW)
- Report: Q4 2026 Earnings
- Timing: After Market Close (AMC)
- Expected EPS: 0.27
- Market Cap: ~$59.0 billion
Focus Areas:
- Cloud consumption growth
- Large enterprise client expansion
- Profitability trajectory
- A bellwether for cloud data and analytics demand.
Circle Internet Group Q4 2025 earnings (BMO).
- Expected EPS: $0.16.
- Market capitalization: ~$15.61B.
- Extended View on Circle:
- Circle remains central to the stablecoin infrastructure narrative, particularly around USDC adoption.
Revenue sensitivity tied to:
- Interest income on reserves
- Stablecoin circulation growth
- Regulatory clarity in the U.S. and abroad
- Key focus: sustainability of yield-driven revenue in a shifting rate environment.
Gold Resumes the March Again
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. In December, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above the $5,000 mark for the first time, printing a fresh record high at $5,598 before retreating below $5,000. But buyers returned and XAU climbed above $5,000 again.
USD/JPY Returns Back Down
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips as the pair found support at the 20 daily SMA (gray) and has rebounded more than 200 pips off that MA but reversed after the 25 bps rate cut from the FED. The price approached $160 but reversed after the BOJ meeting and fell 8 cents but found support at $152 at the 100 daily SMA (red) and rebounded above 156 but have reversed down again this week after the Japanese elections.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Returns Under $70K
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $80K before finding support at the 100 weekly SMA (green). A rebound followed, sending BTC near $100 is the first major text for Bitcoin buyers. However BTC returned lower and fell below $80K, breaking below the but the 100 weekly SMA (green) but the decline stopped at the $60K support where the 200 weekly SM A(purpe) stands and rebounded above $70K.
BTC/USD – Weekly Chart
Ethereum Slips Below $2,000
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2,000 but buyers returned n d pushed the price above $2K again.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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