Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD Eyes $95 Breakout as “Tariff Squeeze” and 67M Ounce Deficit Collide
Silver is leading the precious metals market this week. As of February 26, 2026, silver (XAG/USD) is trading steadily between $89.70...
Quick overview
- Silver is leading the precious metals market, trading between $89.70 and $90.00 after a recent 4% jump to a three-week high of $91.
- The demand for silver is driven by the ongoing global trade war and a six-year supply deficit, making it a preferred hedge against volatility.
- Key resistance is at $91.27, with potential upward movement towards $95.23 if this level is broken.
- Investors are closely monitoring US-Iran nuclear talks, which could impact silver prices and market stability.
Silver is leading the precious metals market this week. As of February 26, 2026, silver (XAG/USD) is trading steadily between $89.70 and $90.00, consolidating after a strong 4% jump that pushed it to a three-week high of $91.
While gold faces challenges from the Federal Reserve’s tough stance, silver is benefiting from two main drivers: the growing global trade war and a supply deficit that has lasted six years. Traders are now asking if this could be the start of a move back to $100.
The Fundamental Fire: Why Silver is Outperforming Gold
Silver is now the main hedge against volatility from the Trump tariffs. Here’s why many investors are moving into XAG:
- The “Section 122” Tariff Shock
After the Supreme Court limited emergency powers, the Trump administration used Section 122 to set a 10% temporary global tariff. In the State of the Union address, the President made it clear these measures will stay, and officials suggested the tariff could rise to 15%. This uncertainty is driving strong demand for silver as a safe haven, especially since it is often more accessible to retail investors than gold.
- Structural Deficit: The 67 Million Ounce Gap
The Silver Institute’s latest 2026 forecast shows the market is still facing a significant structural deficit.
- Supply: Global output is expected to reach a ten-year high of 1.05 billion ounces, but mine production is hard to increase since most silver comes as a byproduct of zinc and copper mining.
- Demand: High prices are causing the solar sector to use less silver, but demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, and advanced semiconductors is likely to keep industrial use close to record levels.
- The Geneva “Nuclear” Wildcard
Investors are closely watching the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva today. Ongoing threats of military action against Iranian nuclear sites are keeping silver prices supported, making major price drops unlikely.
Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis: The Path to $95.23
On the 2-hour chart, silver is pausing after testing $91. The price continues to follow a rising parallel channel that started at the $73 level. XAG/USD 2-hour chart showing the ascending parallel channel and the $91.27 resistance zone.
- The Resistance Barrier: The $91.27 level is the main barrier right now. If the price closes above this level on a 4-hour chart, it could move into price discovery, with the next targets at $95.23 and $98.51.
- Support Safety Net: Immediate support is at $87.64, matching the channel’s midline. The 50-period moving average ($84.42) and 200-period moving average ($84.15) are both rising, offering strong backup support.
- Momentum: The RSI has dropped from overbought levels to the mid-50s, giving buyers room for another move up without much risk of a quick reversal.
Key Trading Levels to Watch
| Level Type | Price (USD) | Significance |
| All-Time High | $121.64 | The January 2026 peak; the ultimate long-term target. |
| Major Resistance | $91.27 | Current rejection zone; breakout triggers a rally to $95+. |
| Critical Support | $87.64 | Mid-channel support; must hold to maintain the “Fast Bull” trend. |
| Institutional Floor | $81.00 | J.P. Morgan’s 2026 average forecast price. |
The Analyst’s Verdict: A Coiled Spring
Silver currently shows more potential for gains than losses. Although the Federal Reserve’s plan to keep rates high is a challenge, the supply shortage and trade-war concerns are having a bigger impact. If the Geneva talks fail or the 15% tariff is announced, the $91.27 level could be broken quickly.
Trade Idea: Look for continued upward movement and a clear break above $91.27, with a target of $95.23.
Stop Loss: Set your stop below $87.60.
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