Nedbank Share Price Remarkable Turnaround: Profit Surprise Sparks New Record Rally Toward R400
Nedbank Group has staged an impressive comeback, with a profit surprise and strategic repositioning driving a powerful share price rally.
Quick overview
- Nedbank Group has experienced a significant share price rally, rebounding approximately 50% to reach record highs since October.
- The bank's strategic exit from its stake in Ecobank was driven by regulatory uncertainties and rising capital requirements, impacting headline earnings but not core operations.
- Despite a forecasted decline in earnings per share due to accounting adjustments, Nedbank's underlying profitability remains strong, with expectations for increased headline earnings per share in 2025.
- Nedbank's recent performance and strategic moves indicate a potential long-term growth phase, with technical indicators suggesting further upward momentum.
Nedbank Group has staged an impressive comeback, with a profit surprise and strategic repositioning driving a powerful share price rally.
Share Price Reversal and Record Highs
Since October, Nedbank’s fortunes have shifted dramatically. After enduring nearly a year of share price weakness, the stock has rebounded approximately 50%, reaching a new record high. The rally was fueled by stronger-than-expected operational performance, improved investor sentiment, and a decisive technical breakout.
The turnaround came despite earlier caution from management. Just days before its earnings release, Nedbank warned of a sharp drop in basic earnings for the 2025 financial year, largely due to the disposal of its long-held stake in Ecobank Transnational Incorporated (ETI).
Strategic Exit from Ecobank
Nedbank sold its interest in ETI as part of a broader strategy to reduce exposure to West Africa. The group cited regulatory uncertainty and rising capital requirements as key risks that made holding the stake less attractive.
While the transaction weighed heavily on headline earnings due to accounting adjustments, the underlying operational picture proved more resilient than anticipated. The bank now expects full-year headline earnings per share (HEPS) for 2025 to rise between 3,667c and 3,740c — up to 3% higher year-on-year.
Return on equity is forecast between 15.3% and 15.5%, slightly below the previous year’s 15.8% but still indicative of stable profitability. Net asset value per share is expected to increase by 3%–5%, landing between 24,760c and 25,241c.
However, due to the ETI disposal and IFRS accounting requirements, accumulated foreign exchange and fair value losses previously recorded in other comprehensive income had to be recycled into profit or loss. As a result, earnings per share (EPS) are expected to decline by 52%–55%, a largely technical adjustment rather than a deterioration in core operations.
Nedbank Breaks Its Downtrend as Momentum Returns
After spending nearly a year under sustained selling pressure, Nedbank Group’s share price has staged a powerful comeback. The stock had cascaded to R206 by late September as the bank’s first-half 2025 performance delivered limited upside surprises and rising costs eroded margins. Combined with a persistent technical downtrend and repeated failures to break above the long-standing R315 resistance from back in 2018, market sentiment remained firmly bearish for most of the year until it found support.
NED Share Chart Monthly – The Rebound Has Broken Above All MAs
That picture shifted dramatically in October. After briefly slipping to the 200-month simple moving average (purple), Nedbank found solid support above R200 and began to reverse sharply. Over the past two months, the stock has surged to R267—climbing back above all major moving averages and setting its sights once again on the R315 historical ceiling which was broken on Thursday after massive 8% surge in the JSE: NED share price.
The shift reflects renewed investor appetite for South African financials, an improving macro backdrop, and a recognition that Nedbank’s underlying fundamentals remain stronger than headline figures initially suggested.
Expansion Ambitions and Workforce Strength
In January, Nedbank made a strategic move by offering R13.9 billion for a 66% stake in NCBA, signaling continued regional ambitions.
Internally, the bank’s institutional strength remains a key pillar of confidence. Nedbank reportedly holds the highest employee retention rate in South Africa, with median tenure at 11.7 years. According to Group Executive for Human Resources Deb Fuller, long-term employee commitment provides operational stability and strategic continuity.
Technical Outlook: Momentum Toward R400?
From a technical perspective, Nedbank has reclaimed key weekly moving averages for the first time in a year — a strong signal of structural trend reversal. The R200–R210 zone now serves as solid support.
If momentum persists, the next upside targets sit near R350, followed by the psychological R400 level.
Conclusion: Nedbank’s 2025 narrative highlights how strategic divestments, resilient operations, and disciplined capital management can reshape investor perception. Despite accounting-driven EPS pressure, underlying profitability and renewed technical strength suggest the bank has re-entered a constructive long-term growth phase.
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