US–Iran War Market Shock: Military Escalation to Trigger Safe-Haven – $6,000 in Sight?
On February 28, 2026, the ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran erupted into a full-scale military conflict...
Quick overview
- On February 28, 2026, military conflict between the US and Iran escalated, leading to a record gold price of $5,278 per ounce.
- The US and Israel launched 'Operation Epic Fury,' targeting Iranian military leaders and nuclear sites, prompting Iranian missile retaliation.
- Gold's market outlook has shifted to strongly bullish, with analysts identifying key price levels and strong support amid ongoing geopolitical tensions.
- Major financial institutions are raising gold price forecasts, with predictions reaching as high as $6,750 due to the conflict and economic factors.
On February 28, 2026, the ongoing tensions between Washington and Tehran erupted into a full-scale military conflict, shaking global financial markets. After nuclear talks in Geneva broke down, a large joint US-Israeli strike called “Operation Epic Fury” pushed gold prices to a record $5,278 per ounce.
Spot gold jumped nearly 2% in one session as investors quickly moved away from riskier assets and sought safety. This is more than a price jump; it marks a major shift in how gold is valued as the Middle East faces its most dangerous period in decades.
War Update: US and Israel Launch “Major Combat Operations”
The move from diplomacy to military action happened quickly and with serious consequences. After Iran refused key US demands about uranium enrichment and dismantling facilities, President Trump announced that major combat operations had begun.
- Strategic Strikes: US and Israeli forces targeted military leaders and nuclear sites in Tehran, Isfahan, Qom, and Karaj. Reports say the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) headquarters and the Supreme Leader’s compound suffered heavy damage.
- Iranian Retaliation: Tehran has struck back with missile barrages targeting US bases in the Gulf and cities in northern Israel. Air-raid sirens have become the new normal from Tel Aviv to Bahrain.
- Regime Change Agenda: In a startling address, President Trump urged the Iranian people to “take over your government” once military objectives are met, signaling that the goal extends far beyond dismantling nuclear centrifuges.
Why $5,300 Is Now the Key Level for Bullish Investors
From a technical perspective, gold has broken past previous resistance. Moving above $5,251 has changed the market’s outlook from steady to strongly bullish.
- The Technical Verdict: Analysts say the $5,250 to $5,280 range is the key area before reaching the all-time high of $5,602. Friday’s close at $5,278 shows that experienced investors are preparing for more escalation over the weekend.
- Momentum Overdrive: The RSI is very high at 77, which usually means gold is overbought. However, during war, market sentiment can outweigh normal indicators. If gold stays above $5,200 when markets open Monday, a move to $5,400 is likely.
- Support established: Strong support is confirmed at $5,143, giving a reliable base for any short-term drops from profit-taking.
Structural Bull Case: Factors Beyond the War
Although the US-Iran war is the main trigger, gold’s rise is also supported by long-term factors that existed before the conflict began.
- Central Bank “Panic” Buying: Global central banks, led by those seeking “de-dollarization,” are on pace to add over 850 tonnes of gold to their reserves this year.
- The Inflation Hedge: January’s high inflation data (PPI up 0.8%) shows that price pressures remain strong. As real yields drop, gold stands out as an asset that cannot be created at will.
- Supply Scarcity: Mine production is stagnant, and with the Middle East in flames, supply chain disruptions are likely to keep the physical market extremely tight.
Price Forecasts: Is $6,750 the New Reality?
As the conflict grows, major institutions are raising their gold price targets almost every day.
- P. Morgan: Maintains a year-end target of $6,300.
- Wells Fargo: Sees potential for $6,500 if the Strait of Hormuz is closed.
- MKS PAMP: Views the current market as “mid-cycle,” suggesting a structural rally toward $6,750.
The consensus is clear: In today’s unstable world, gold is seen as a necessity rather than a luxury. Traders should watch the market open on Monday for a possible jump as the weekend’s events are reflected in prices.
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