Crude Oil Price Forecast: WTI Smashes $70 Barrier as US-Israel “Operation Epic Fury” Decapitates Iranian Leadership
The global energy landscape changed dramatically over the weekend. As of Monday, March 2, 2026, WTI Crude (USOIL) is trading between...
Quick overview
- WTI Crude prices surged to between $71.80 and $73.20 following significant military escalations in the Middle East, marking a potential supply shock.
- The US-Israeli operation, dubbed 'Operation Epic Fury,' resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader and escalated tensions, leading to retaliatory attacks from Iran.
- OPEC+ attempted to stabilize the market with a production increase, but analysts suggest the real issue lies in transit disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Market analysts recommend buying on pullbacks to $70.50, with a target of $74.05, as the outlook shifts from oversupply to a logistics crisis.
The global energy landscape changed dramatically over the weekend. As of Monday, March 2, 2026, WTI Crude (USOIL) is trading between $71.80 and $73.20, jumping as much as 10% during the Asian session. The ‘War Premium’ is now a real supply shock after the biggest Middle East military escalation in over 40 years.
With Iran’s Supreme Leader confirmed dead and the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, the market is preparing for oil prices to possibly exceed $100 if diplomacy does not resume.
The Weekend of Fire: “Operation Epic Fury”
Today’s sharp price jump was triggered by a large, coordinated US-Israeli campaign launched late on February 28. President Trump called it a preemptive strike to “remove the existential threat” and said the operation is ongoing and may continue for weeks.
- Decapitation Strike: Israeli and US forces targeted high-level meetings in Tehran, resulting in the deaths of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and several top IRGC commanders.
- Retaliation & Escalation: In response, Iran launched a large drone and missile attack on US bases in Dubai, Doha, and Manama, as well as on Israeli cities.
- Strait of Hormuz Blockade: The IRGC has reportedly told tankers they will be attacked if they try to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. At least 150 tankers are now anchored in open waters, avoiding transit as maritime insurance premiums have jumped by over 50%.
The OPEC+ Response: A Drop in the Ocean
In a desperate bid to calm the markets, the OPEC+ “V8” group held an emergency session on Sunday. They agreed to a production hike of 206,000 barrels per day (bpd) starting in April—significantly higher than the previously planned 137,000 bpd.
However, the market has largely ignored this move. Analysts at Rystad Energy note that while the group is “turning up the taps,” the real issue is not production, but transit. With 20 million bpd (20% of global supply) potentially trapped behind a Hormuz blockade, an extra 200k barrels of paper production is, quite literally, a drop in the ocean.
WTI Technical Outlook: The Channel Breakout
On the 4-hour chart, WTI has broken out of its previous upward trend and is now rising much more quickly.
- The Breakout Zone: The price has moved above the $70.47 resistance level, which had limited gains for the past 30 months. This level is now acting as important support.
- Momentum Overload: The RSI has jumped to 79, showing the market is extremely overbought. Normally, this would mean a pullback is likely, but during conflict, RSI can stay high for days as short positions are closed.
- Overhead Targets: If the price stays above $72.00, it could test $74.99, which is the intraday high, and possibly move toward the $80.00 psychological level.
Key Market Figures (March 2, 2026)
- WTI (USOIL): ~$73.14 (+1.6% from open, +7.4% from Friday)
- Brent Crude: ~$79.50 (14-month high)
- Hormuz Daily Flow: ~20 Million Barrels (Currently at risk)
- OPEC+ Hike: +206,000 bpd (Effective April)
The Analyst’s Verdict: Buy the Pullback to $70.50
As a professional analyst, I am telling clients that the main outlook for oil has changed. We are not dealing with oversupply anymore, but with a logistics crisis. Until the U.S. Navy can ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, WTI’s price floor is now $10 higher.
Look for entries on pullbacks toward the $70.50 support. Target $74.05 as the first major profit zone, with an extension toward $77.00. Set your stop loss below $69.80. If the price falls back into the old channel, it could mean the ‘war premium’ is fading due to talk of de-escalation.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
- Read our latest reviews on: Avatrade, Exness, HFM and XM
Save