Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Holds $68K, Ethereum’s Resilience Tested
Bitcoin has demonstrated surprising resilience amid the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, holding above $68,000 despite a 3.5%
Quick overview
- Bitcoin has shown resilience, maintaining a price above $68,000 despite geopolitical tensions and a recent 3.5% pullback.
- Ethereum is under technical pressure, with analysts warning of a potential drop below $1,500 as it struggles to hold crucial support levels.
- The CFTC is expected to provide guidance on cryptocurrency perpetual futures soon, while the ECB raises concerns about stablecoins impacting traditional banking.
- In Iran, cryptocurrency withdrawals surged by 700% amid military strikes, indicating capital flight, but decreased significantly due to internet outages.
Bitcoin BTC/USD has demonstrated surprising resilience amid the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, holding above $68,000 despite a 3.5% pullback from late-February highs, with on-chain data showing minimal panic selling from recent buyers. Meanwhile, Ethereum ETH/USD faces mounting technical pressure with analysts warning of a potential drop below $1,500, while regulatory developments — including imminent CFTC guidance on crypto perpetual futures and an ECB warning about stablecoins threatening European bank lending — are reshaping the broader market landscape.
Crypto Market Developments
One of the most volatile geopolitical times in recent memory is being navigated by cryptocurrency markets. Global markets have been shook by the joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, which are said to have struck over 2,000 sites in 131 towns and provinces. However, digital assets have demonstrated some dissociation from conventional risk-off behavior.
Within minutes of the initial airstrikes, withdrawals from Iran’s main cryptocurrency exchange, Nobitex, increased by an astounding 700%, reaching roughly $3 million in just one hour and surpassing $500,000 practically immediately. According to blockchain analytics company Elliptic, the activity most likely reflects capital flight, with a large portion of the cryptocurrency being transferred to overseas exchanges, a means of transferring money out of Iran without going through the international banking system. However, as the Iranian government imposed internet outages that reduced the nation’s access by over 99%, the outflows drastically decreased.
At a Milken Institute discussion in Washington, DC, CFTC Chair Michael Selig stated that the agency anticipates addressing cryptocurrency perpetual futures contracts “within the next month or so.” Selig, the CFTC’s sole Senate-confirmed commissioner at the moment, pointed out that previous regulatory animosity had sent businesses and liquidity abroad. The CFTC now has four commissioner vacancies. For the first time, a significant and popular cryptocurrency instrument would be included under US regulatory frameworks.
The European Central Bank (ECB) issued a working paper cautioning that the traditional banking industry faces significant risks due to the growing acceptance of stablecoins. The study concluded that more use of stablecoins is associated with quantifiable drops in corporate lending and retail bank deposits, which impairs the transmission of monetary policy. The ECB is increasingly concerned as the stablecoin market has more than doubled in the last three years to $312 billion and is expected to reach $2 trillion by 2028.
Bitcoin Bounces Back to $68,000
Despite the biggest military escalation in years in the Middle East, Bitcoin has so far survived a more severe selloff. Bitcoin recovered above $65,000 after briefly reaching $63,030 on February 28. It is now trading above $68,000, down barely 3.5% from its late-February peak. Analysts have taken notice of this relative steadiness, pointing out that the price movement reflects a pattern observed in previous conflict-driven declines: Bitcoin plummeted in February 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, then rose 40%; it then fell again in June 2025 when Israel struck Iran, before rising 25%. Now, some market observers are wondering if the recent selloff portends a comparable recovery.
CryptoQuant’s on-chain data below the price indicates seller weariness rather than fear. On February 28, exchange inflows from short-term holders, who are the group most inclined to sell under pressure, hardly changed when Bitcoin fell into the $63,000–$64,000 region. This stands in stark contrast to early February, when, in a single 24-hour period, short-term holders remitted 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss. The lack of a fresh wave of loss-driven transfers, according to CryptoQuant analyst Moreno, is encouraging since it may indicate that the most cautious selling have already left and that a price recovery is about to occur if inflows from recent purchases stay muted.
Ethereum Trades Under $2,000
Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum’s technical structure is more unstable. ETH is currently trading at $1,973 after being rejected at $2,000 late Monday. It is holding onto a crucial support zone close to $1,800, where about 1.23 million ETH were amassed at an average price of $1,890 over the previous 30 days. Analysts caution that a break below that support level, which is represented by the lower trendline of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart, would probably cause ETH to retest its multi-year bottom from February, which was close to $1,750. Below there, the triangle’s technical measured target suggests to about $1,400, which is a 28% drop from current levels.
Derivatives and on-chain data support the cautious approach. According to CoinGlass data, there is a sizable liquidity pocket that might hasten any fall, with $624 million in long liquidation exposure resting just below $1,800. To highlight how closely the $1,800 level is being studied, CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn found 67,000 ETH, or around $130 million, positioned just below the spot price. The possibility of additional downside before a significant floor is established is left open by Glassnode’s MVRV extreme deviation bands, which indicate that ETH’s unrealized profit levels have not yet reached the kind of extreme lows traditionally associated with market bottoms, which in previous bear markets occurred below the $1,650 level.
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