XAU/USD – Daily Chart
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Forex Signals March 5: The Costco (COST) and Alibaba (BABA) Earnings Preview
Major retailers like Costco and Alibaba have released their earnings reports today, which will demonstrate the demand in both the physical..
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Last updated: Thursday, March 5, 2026
Quick overview
- Earnings reports from major retailers like Costco and Alibaba are expected to provide insights into consumer demand in both physical and online markets.
- Geopolitical tensions remain high, but markets are currently prioritizing economic resilience, leading to a rise in equities.
- U.S. economic data, including a strong ADP employment report and improved ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, supports a positive market outlook.
- Bitcoin and commodities have rebounded as risk appetite returns, with Bitcoin surging nearly $5,000 during the session.
Live BTC/USD Chart
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MARKETS TREND
Major retailers like Costco and Alibaba have released their earnings reports today, which will demonstrate the demand in both the physical and online sectors.
Geopolitical Risks Remain Elevated
Geopolitical tensions continue to generate frequent headlines, but markets appear willing to look through the noise for now, suggesting investors believe the situation is largely contained. The U.S. and Israel are generally seen as maintaining the upper hand, although occasional flare-ups may sustain background uncertainty.
Risk Sentiment Improves, Equities Rise
Risk appetite improved during the session, helping equities recover. The NASDAQ gained about 1.4%, while the S&P 500 rose nearly 1%. The move reflects a market that is currently prioritizing economic resilience over geopolitical concerns.
Economic Data Supports Stability
U.S. economic data reinforced the constructive tone. The ADP employment report showed private payrolls rising by 63,000 in February, exceeding expectations of 50,000 and improving from a revised January gain of 11,000.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI also strengthened, rising to 56.1 versus the 53.5 estimate and 53.8 previously, signaling continued expansion in the services sector.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book reported that economic activity increased at a slight to moderate pace across most districts, with seven of twelve regions showing growth and labor market conditions remaining generally stable.
Dollar Weakens as Risk Appetite Returns
The early-week flight into the U.S. dollar reversed as sentiment improved. The dollar index declined, with commodity-linked currencies benefiting from the shift toward risk assets.
Commodities and Bitcoin Rebound
Crude oil traded between $73.28 and $77.23, settling near $75.22, up about 0.57%. Precious metals also recovered after sharp losses, with gold rising 0.96% following a 4.38% drop and silver gaining about 1.4% after an 8% decline.
Bitcoin surged nearly $5,000 (7.16%) to around $73,230, moving between $67,405 and $74,075 during the session. The cryptocurrency’s strength reflects renewed appetite for higher-risk assets as markets stabilize.
Key Market Events to Watch Today
Today’s earnings carries importance. With markets already fragile, strong results from retail heavyweights like Costco and Alibaba could stabilize sentiment, while disappointments may accelerate downside momentum.
🔹 Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST)
- Q2 2026 Earnings – AMC
- EPS Estimate: 4.54
- Market Cap: ~$448.92B
Watch For:
- Consumer resilience
- Membership growth
- Pricing power amid inflation
- Defensive retail play; strong read on consumer health
🔹 Alibaba Group Holding Limited (BABA)
- Q3 2026 Earnings – BMO
- EPS Estimate: 10.94
- Market Cap: ~$344.04B
Focus Areas:
- China consumption trends
- Cloud business growth
- Regulatory environment
- Sensitive to China macro conditions and global risk appetite
Gold Finds Support at the 20 SMA
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. In December, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above the $5,000 mark for the first time, printing a fresh record high at $5,598 before retreating below $5,000. But buyers returned and XAU climbed above $5,000 again.
USD/JPY Rebounds
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips as the pair found support at the 20 daily SMA (gray) and has rebounded more than 200 pips off that MA but reversed after the 25 bps rate cut from the FED. The price approached $160 but reversed after the BOJ meeting and fell 8 cents but found support at $152 at the 100 daily SMA (red) and rebounded above 156 but have reversed down again this week after the Japanese elections.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Reclaims the $70K Level
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $80K before finding support at the 100 weekly SMA (green). A rebound followed, sending BTC near $100 is the first major text for Bitcoin buyers. However BTC returned lower and fell below $80K, breaking below the but the 100 weekly SMA (green) but the decline stopped at the $60K support where the 200 weekly SMA (purple) stands and rebounded to $74K.
BTC/USD – Weekly Chart
Ethereum Climbs Above $2,000
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2,000 but buyers returned n d pushed the price above $2K again.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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