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Forex Signals March 6: NFP Expected to Cool as Crude Oil Spikes
Geopolitical tensions dominated market sentiment as oil prices surged and stocks swung sharply, while today we await the U.S. NFP and labor
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Last updated: Thursday, March 5, 2026
Quick overview
- Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have driven oil prices to their highest levels since early 2025, with WTI crude futures settling at $81.01.
- U.S. equity markets experienced a significant recovery after initial sharp declines, with the Dow Jones and NASDAQ showing contrasting performances due to sector composition.
- Labor market data is expected to show stable conditions, with initial jobless claims projected at 213,000 and continuing claims rising to 1.868 million.
- Cryptocurrencies remain volatile, with Bitcoin rebounding to around $74K and Ethereum climbing above $2,000 amid renewed institutional interest.
Live BTC/USD Chart
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MARKETS TREND
Geopolitical tensions dominated market sentiment as oil prices surged and stocks swung sharply, while today we await the U.S. NFP and labor market data.
Geopolitics Pushes Oil to 2025 Highs
Markets were primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with reports suggesting threats of an Iranian scorched-earth strategy targeting U.S. interests. Additional reports of Mossad-linked bombings in Dubai and Bahrain and missile strikes targeting a Microsoft data center added to fears of a widening regional conflict.
Energy markets reacted swiftly. WTI crude oil futures surged to settle at $81.01, after reaching highs near $82.20, marking one of the largest daily gains in recent months and the highest level since early 2025. The rally reflected a growing geopolitical risk premium as traders priced in potential disruptions to global oil supply routes.
Stocks Rebound as Oil Pulls Back
U.S. equity markets initially fell sharply but staged a significant recovery into the close. The shift in sentiment came after crude oil prices retreated from the session high of $82.22 to around $79.44, easing inflation concerns and allowing stocks to recover.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded from a steep loss of −1,162 points to close down −784 points, while the NASDAQ recovered dramatically from −307 points to finish only −58 points lower.
The difference in performance between the indices reflected sector composition. The Dow’s heavy weighting in industrial and materials companies left it more exposed to the day’s sharp declines in cyclical sectors, while the technology-heavy NASDAQ proved more resilient.
Political Developments Add to the News Flow
President Donald Trump also made headlines by replacing Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem. Her replacement, Oklahoma Senator Markwayne Mullin, is widely known for his outspoken style, including a past confrontation with a union leader on the Senate floor.
Key Market Events to Watch Today
U.S. Jobless Claims Expected to Remain Stable
Labor market data will be released during the session and is expected to show relatively steady conditions. Initial jobless claims are expected to totaled 213,000, while the prior week was revised to the same level.
However, continuing claims are expected to rise to 1.868 million, above the 1.85 million estimate. This suggests layoffs remain limited, though some unemployed workers may be taking longer to secure new jobs. Overall, the figures remain within the recent range and did not significantly alter market expectations.
Productivity and Labor Costs to Rise
Economic data also showed stronger productivity growth. Nonfarm productivity is expected to increase by 2.8% in the fourth quarter, beating expectations of 1.9% and indicating improved efficiency across the economy.
At the same time, unit labor costs also are expected to rise by 2.8%. The increase should be driven by a 5.7% jump in hourly compensation, meaning wage pressures continue to build despite stronger productivity.
Gold Finds Support at the 20 SMA
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. In December, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above the $5,000 mark for the first time, printing a fresh record high at $5,598 before retreating below $5,000. But buyers returned and XAU climbed above $5,000 again.
USD/JPY Rebounds
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips as the pair found support at the 20 daily SMA (gray) and has rebounded more than 200 pips off that MA but reversed after the 25 bps rate cut from the FED. The price approached $160 but reversed after the BOJ meeting and fell 8 cents but found support at $152 at the 100 daily SMA (red) and rebounded above 156 but have reversed down again this week after the Japanese elections.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Reclaims the $70K Level
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $80K before finding support at the 100 weekly SMA (green). A rebound followed, sending BTC near $100 is the first major text for Bitcoin buyers. However BTC returned lower and fell below $80K, breaking below the but the 100 weekly SMA (green) but the decline stopped at the $60K support where the 200 weekly SMA (purple) stands and rebounded to $74K.
BTC/USD – Weekly Chart
Ethereum Climbs Above $2,000
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2,000 but buyers returned n d pushed the price above $2K again.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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