Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Rebounds as “Operation Epic Fury” Enters Week Two – Is $5,300 the Next Target?
The gold market is now in a bit of a war zone - a "War Regime", as some folks are calling it. By Saturday, March 7, 2026, gold...
Quick overview
- The gold market is experiencing high volatility due to escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict.
- Gold prices are currently trading between $5,105 and $5,172 per ounce, with expectations of a significant gap up when markets reopen.
- Oil prices have surged to around $90.90 per barrel, contributing to inflationary pressures that are driving investors back to gold as a safe-haven asset.
- Technical analysis shows gold is holding above a critical support level of $5,063, with potential upside targets if resistance at $5,205 is broken.
The gold market is now in a bit of a war zone – a “War Regime”, as some folks are calling it. By Saturday, March 7, 2026, gold had wrapped up the week trading between $5,105 and $5,172 per ounce. But with markets closed for the weekend, and the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict now in its 7th day, things are really starting to heat up. This is all adding to a big geopolitical risk premium that’s likely to send the markets into a high-volatility “gap up” when trading starts again on Sunday.
Despite the gold price taking a bit of a hit mid-week from a surging U.S. Dollar and a jump in Treasury yields, the sheer scale of “Operation Epic Fury” is sending investors running back to the ultimate safe-haven – and that’s gold. With Tehran’s infrastructure under fire and the Strait of Hormuz basically shut down, gold is once again the go-to insurance policy for global capital.
Day 7: The “Unconditional Surrender” Ultimatum – And It’s Getting Uglier
The conflict has escalated way beyond what people were initially expecting – it’s gone from “limited strikes” to a full-blown military campaign.
- Tehran Takes a Beating: Overnight, U.S.-Israeli airstrikes targeted Mehrabad Airport, underground command bunkers, and ballistic missile silos across Tehran – it was a real pounding.
- Iran Fires Back: Tehran’s responded by launching a bunch of missiles at Tel Aviv and targeting a Kuwaiti airbase hosting Western forces. Saudi and Emirati air defenses have also been active, taking out drones in what’s rapidly becoming a bit of a regional quagmire.
- The Trump Doctrine: The White House says there’s no diplomatic off-ramp until Iran agrees to an “unconditional surrender”. That means the current focus is on taking out Iran’s nuclear and maritime capabilities once and for all.
Energy Shock: Oil Hits $91, Firing Up the Gold Hedge
War risk is really starting to flow through to the gold market – and it’s coming from the energy sector.
- Oil Prices Soar: Oil has jumped 12% in just 24 hours, and is now hovering around $90.90 per barrel – the highest level we’ve seen since 2022.
- Hormuz Paralysis: With nearly 20 million barrels per day stuck due to the conflict, shipping costs have doubled and global supply chains are in chaos.
- Inflationary Fire: While higher oil prices typically give the USD a boost, the resulting “inflation shock” is sending institutional investors running to gold as a store of value that can’t be debased by energy price hikes.
Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Defends the $5,063 “Floor”
The 4-hour chart shows gold did just fine with the mid-week “flush out” and is now rebuilding its bullish picture.
- The Pivot Zone: Gold is hovering just above $5,063 support, after creating a series of higher lows along an ascending trendline since late February.
- Dynamic Support: The 50 EMA ($5,156) and 100 EMA ($5,116) are starting to flatten out, which is a sign that the corrective phase may be over.
- Upside Targets: The first thing to watch out for is resistance at $5,205 – a clean break above that would likely send gold towards the $5,296-$5,416 supply zone.
- Momentum: The RSI has rebounded to 53, which is starting to get back into the healthy zone and there’s a sense of buyer conviction building.
The Analyst’s Verdict: Get Ready for the Sunday Gap
Gold isn’t trading today, but the clock is still ticking in the geopolitical world. If the conflict goes wider and other regional actors get drawn in over the weekend, we could see gold gap up to $5,300 by the time the markets open on Sunday.
The Strategy:
- Long Bias: Keep an eye out for buys above $5,205 – and then target the $5,400 record high.
- Risk Management: Remember – the $5,063 level is the “Line in the Sand”. If we get a daily close below that, the whole bull case breaks down and we can expect a deeper correction all the way down to $4,967.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
- Read our latest reviews on: Avatrade, Exness, HFM and XM
Save