Harmony Gold Share Price JSE: HAR Dives 34% on Lower Gold Price, Earnings and Copper Guidance
Shares of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited have pulled back sharply after a remarkable three-year rally, as investors reassess earnings..
Quick overview
- Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited has seen a significant share price drop of approximately 34% after a three-year rally, driven by rising costs and disappointing copper production guidance.
- Despite mixed earnings results, the company announced a record interim dividend of 530 South African cents per share, exceeding analyst expectations.
- Harmony reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 production outlook for gold while facing operational challenges and weaker-than-expected copper guidance.
- The company's future performance will depend on sustaining gold prices and effectively managing operational costs amid ongoing market uncertainties.
Shares of Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited have pulled back sharply after a remarkable three-year rally, as investors reassess earnings results, rising costs, and a weaker-than-expected copper outlook.
Massive Rally Followed by Sharp Correction
Harmony Gold has been one of the strongest-performing mining stocks in recent years. The share price surged from around R43 in late 2022 to nearly R430 by January, largely driven by the powerful rally in global Gold prices.
However, the stock has recently experienced a sharp correction. Over the past two weeks, JSE-listed Harmony shares have dropped roughly 34%, bringing the price down toward key long-term technical support levels.
The decline accelerated following the company’s latest earnings release, which showed operating profit missing expectations and weaker guidance for copper production.
Earnings Mixed Despite Strong Gold Market
Harmony maintained its fiscal 2026 production outlook, signaling confidence in its core operations. Guidance includes, Gold production: 1.4 million – 1.5 million ounces, All-in sustaining costs (AISC): R1.15 million – R1.22 million per kilogram and Underground recovered grades: Above 5.8 grams per tonne.
The company benefited significantly from rising gold prices, which helped lift revenue and earnings per share even as overall gold production declined during the period. However, higher operating costs and disappointing copper guidance created uncertainty among investors, particularly as Harmony continues expanding into copper through its CSA and Eva projects.
Record Dividend Supports Shareholder Returns
Despite the market concerns, Harmony delivered a strong positive for shareholders by announcing a record interim dividend of 530 South African cents per share (about $0.32).
The payout came in 58% above analyst expectations, reflecting the company’s revised dividend framework that allows up to 50% of net free cash flow to be returned to shareholders.
CEO Beyers Nel emphasized that operational fundamentals remain strong and that the company is on track to meet full-year production, cost, and grade targets.
Falling Gold Prices Weigh on HARJ
Harmony Gold (JSE: HAR) emerged as one of South Africa’s strongest performers in 2025, soaring nearly 125% in 2025 before a midyear correction set in. The surge tracked the global gold rally, which peaked at $5,598 per ounce before easing back to around $5,000. As the retracement continues for gold, Harmony continues to suffer heavy losses.
HARJ Chart Weekly – The 50 SMA Held As Support
At its peak, Harmony’s share price climbed to R430 in late January, marking a record high before slipping nearly 40% from that level. The miner’s impressive early-year run reversed swiftly and now the share price has broken below the 50 weekly SMA (yellow), and is testing the 100 SMA (green). if that breaks, then it will open the way for further losses toward R150 where the 200 weekly SMA (purple) stands.
Technical Trend Under Threat
With the pullback, Harmony’s broader uptrend has come under threat. The stock has been finding solid support at its 20-month simple moving average (gray). Historically, this level acted as a launch point for previous rallies, including in early 2024 but it has been broken in March, although the moth is still young.
HARJ Chart Monthly – Strong Rebound Off the 20 SMA Once Again
Gold Prices Find Support But Remain in Retreat
After soaring to an all-time high of $5,998 per ounce earlier in January, gold prices faced a sharp correction as profit-taking and easing geopolitical tensions prompted a temporary pullback toward the $4,400 level. However, the decline appears to have stabilized, supported by the 50 daily SMA (yellow).
Gold Chart Daily – The 20 SMA Is Holding As Support
The broader macro backdrop remains favorable for the precious metal, with weakening global growth and sustained central bank purchases all helping to maintain upward pressure on bullion, but a stronger dollar lately has been hurting gold prices. For miners like Harmony Gold, this renewed weakness has been weighing on the share price.
Harmony Gold H1 FY2026 Results Overview
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited reported mixed first-half fiscal 2026 results, with operating profit falling short of market expectations.
- Operating profit: R16.1 billion, roughly 10% below analyst consensus.
- Revenue: R44.4 billion, up 20% year-over-year from R37.1 billion.
- Revenue growth was driven primarily by higher gold prices, which rose 36% to R1,909,849 per kilogram during the period.
Despite the revenue increase, investors were disappointed by weaker copper guidance and higher operating costs.
Gold Production Declines but Earnings Improve
Gold production for the six months ended December 31, 2025 totaled:
- 22,522 kg (724,099 ounces) of gold.
- Down 9% year-over-year from 24,816 kg.
- The decline was attributed mainly to temporary operational challenges during the second quarter.
Adjusted earnings per share:
- 1,431 South African cents (82 US cents)
- Up 13% from 1,270 cents in the previous year.
All-in sustaining costs (AISC):
- Increased 21% to R1,180,367 per kilogram (about $2,115 per ounce).
- Costs rose broadly in line with management guidance.
Copper Guidance Disappoints Investors
- Investor sentiment was also affected by weaker-than-expected guidance for copper production at the newly acquired CSA Mine.
Harmony projected copper output of:
- 17,500 – 18,500 tonnes for the eight-month period ending June 30, 2026.
- The midpoint of 18,000 tonnes fell below market expectations.
- Production will also be temporarily halted for about one month to replace shaft steel on two levels at the mine.
Estimated C1 cash costs:
- $2.65 to $2.80 per pound.
- Dividend Policy Revised and Payout Doubled
- Harmony announced a new dividend framework designed to increase shareholder returns.
The policy introduces:
- A base dividend, plus
- An “upside participation model” linked to the company’s net debt-to-EBITDA levels.
- Under this new policy, the company declared an interim dividend of ZAR 5.30 per share (about $0.32).
- The payout represents a rolling 12-month dividend yield of about 2.2%.
- Total interim payout reached a record ZAR 3.4 billion ($204 million).
- This represents 43% of net free cash flow for the period.
FY2026 Guidance for Gold Operations
Harmony reaffirmed its full-year fiscal 2026 outlook for its gold operations:
- Gold production: 1.4 – 1.5 million ounces
- Underground recovered grades: Above 5.8 g/t
- All-in sustaining costs: ZAR 1.15M – ZAR 1.22M per kilogram
For copper operations at the CSA mine:
- Copper production: 17,500 – 18,500 tonnes
- C1 cash costs: $2.65 – $2.80 per pound
- Recovered grades: Above 3.5%
- Management noted that long-term production guidance for CSA will be provided at the full-year results release.
Capital Spending and Growth Projects
- FY2026 capital expenditure guidance: R18.5 billion.
- Spending now includes both CSA and the Eva Copper project.
Breakdown of planned investment:
Gold operations capex:
- Reduced by R1 billion to R11.8 billion.
CSA mine capex:
- R1.1 billion (~$65 million).
Eva Copper project capex:
- R5.6 billion (~$302 million).
- Construction of the Eva Copper project is underway with first production targeted for late 2028.
Outlook: Gold Strength vs Operational Challenges
Harmony’s outlook highlights the delicate balance mining companies face between commodity price tailwinds and operational pressures. If gold prices remain elevated, the company could continue benefiting from strong revenue and cash flow generation.
However, investors will closely watch the sustainability of the global gold rally, the progress in integrating and expanding copper assets and the management’s ability to control operating costs. While the recent pullback reflects investor caution, strong gold prices and improved shareholder returns could help stabilize sentiment if operational execution improves in the coming quarters.
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