Forex Signals March 16: Micron Earnings Preview, Nvidia GTC on Top of the Critical FED Meeting

Quick overview

This week, the FED will hold a crucial meeting about times of conflict, Nvidia will host the GTC conference, and Micron will publish its earnings.

War Expectations Shift as Timeline Extends

Last week there were signs that expectations for a quick resolution to the conflict had faded, with many observers suggesting that those hoping for a rapid de-escalation were beginning to accept a longer timeline. Reports that the United States is sending a Marine Expeditionary Unit that may take 12 to 16 days to arrive effectively pushes the timeline toward the end of the month, aligning with the four-to-five week timeframe previously highlighted by Donald Trump.

This development has reinforced the view that the situation may evolve more slowly than initially expected.

Concerns Grow Over Strait of Hormuz Control

There is also increasing belief that Iran may not end the conflict quickly even if Washington pushes for de-escalation. As a result, attention is shifting toward the possibility of a prolonged struggle over the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes.

If the conflict moves in this direction, markets could face months of naval escorts, maritime tensions, and heightened geopolitical risk. Such a scenario would likely keep global energy markets on edge and could sustain elevated oil prices well into the spring.

Oil Prices Rebound After Early Drop

Energy markets reflected these concerns during the latest trading session. Crude oil initially fell to around $92 per barrel during Asian trading, but the decline was short-lived.

Prices quickly rebounded, climbing as high as $99.32 before ending the session close to the day’s highs. The strong recovery highlights how sensitive oil markets remain to geopolitical developments and potential disruptions to global supply.

Risk-Off Sentiment Returns to Equity Markets

Equity markets also reacted to the shifting risk environment. U.S. stocks initially opened stronger, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining roughly 50 points early in the session.

However, that optimism quickly faded as investors continued to reduce risk exposure. By the end of the day, the index had reversed sharply, turning the early gains into a 45-point loss as cautious sentiment dominated trading.

Dollar Demand Builds in Currency Markets

The foreign exchange market had initially taken the conflict in stride, showing relatively limited volatility in the early stages.

However, the tone is beginning to shift as investors gradually move toward the U.S. dollar as a defensive asset. This increasing demand for the dollar reflects broader concerns that geopolitical tensions and energy market instability could create further turbulence across global financial markets.

Key Market Events to Watch This Week

Forex Signals Update

Gold Breaks the 50 SMA

Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. In December, gold jumped above $4.3800 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20 daily SMA (gray) held as support last week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above the $5,000 mark for the first time, printing a fresh record high at $5,598 before retreating below $5,000. But buyers returned and XAU climbed above $5,000 again.

USD/JPY Rebounds

USD/JPY – Daily Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Reclaims the $70K Level

Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $80K before finding support at the 100 weekly SMA (green). A rebound followed, sending BTC near $100 is the first major text for Bitcoin buyers. However BTC returned lower and fell below $80K, breaking below the but the 100 weekly SMA (green) but the decline stopped at the $60K support where the 200 weekly SMA (purple) stands and rebounded to $74K.

BTC/USD – Weekly Chart

Ethereum Climbs Above $2,000

Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2,000 but buyers returned n d pushed the price above $2K again.

ETH/USD – Weekly Chart

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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