TMC Stock Faces Breakdown If $5 Gives as Investors Focus on Earnings and Debt Risks

Quick overview

The Metals Company is approaching a critical technical and fundamental test as its stock nears key support ahead of an important earnings announcement.

Stock Under Pressure Ahead of Earnings

Shares of The Metals Company have come under significant pressure, falling around 17% this week and now testing the critical $5 level. The decline follows a failed breakout attempt after a brief rally, with investors increasingly focused on the company’s financial position and debt profile ahead of its upcoming earnings report.

TMC confirmed it will release its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results on March 27, 2026, with a conference call expected to provide updates on financial performance and recent developments. The timing is crucial, as sentiment has shifted from optimism to caution in recent sessions.

NOAA Boost Fails to Sustain Momentum

Earlier enthusiasm was driven by a regulatory update from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which confirmed that TMC’s application for deep-sea mining exploration and commercial recovery is in substantial compliance with U.S. regulations.

This announcement reignited interest in the critical minerals sector, lifting shares of both TMC and USA Rare Earth. However, the rally proved short-lived. Both stocks failed to break through key resistance levels and reversed sharply, highlighting weak follow-through buying and growing investor skepticism.

Earnings Could Be a Turning Point

With the stock now hovering near key support, the upcoming earnings release could prove decisive. Investors will be closely watching for updates on cash flow, funding strategy, and project timelines, as well as any commentary on regulatory progress.

A strong update could help stabilize sentiment and support a rebound, while disappointing results may increase the risk of a breakdown below the $5 level.

Stock Volatility and Technical Recovery

After months of turbulence for TMC shares, the stock found support at the 50 weekly SMA (yellow) and attempted a rebound after the NOAA ruling. But couldn’t keep the upside momentum going and TMC price returned lower this week, slipping briefly below $5 on Friday and breaking below the 50 SMA, before closing at $5.03.

TMC Chart Daily – The 50 SMA Is Broken

Throughout the second half of 2025, the stock faced heavy selling pressure due to regulatory delays, political opposition, and ongoing environmental debates surrounding deep-sea mining. By November 2025, shares had dropped below $5, a level many investors viewed as a capitulation point.

From those lows, the stock staged a strong recovery as sentiment improved. The rally accelerated into early 2026, with TMC briefly trading above $10 after gaining nearly 50% in just a few sessions. However, the surge proved short-lived, and the stock quickly has retraced almost all of the move.

Massive Resource Potential Remains Key Narrative

Despite near-term volatility, TMC’s long-term story continues to center on its significant resource base. The company’s subsidiary has submitted an expanded application covering approximately 65,000 square kilometers in the Clarion Clipperton Zone in the Pacific Ocean.

This area is believed to contain around 619 million tonnes of polymetallic nodules, with the potential for an additional 200 million tonnes through further exploration. These nodules hold critical metals such as nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese—key components in batteries and clean energy technologies.

Conclusion: TMC is entering a pivotal moment, where both technical levels and fundamental expectations are aligned. The earnings announcement will likely determine whether the stock can recover from recent losses or extend its decline, making the coming week critical for investors.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

TMC and USAR Stock Rebound - NOAA Gives Green Light for Deep-Sea Mining

2 weeks ago

Save

TMC Stock Heads Under $5 After Biggest Weekly Decline on Deep Sea Mining Uncertainty

2 months ago

Save

USAR Stock Heads Under $20 as Questions Emerge on U.S. Backing of Rare Earth Mining

2 months ago

Save