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Forex Signals March 26: Commercial Metals CMC, Argan, Pony AI, and USAR Earnings Preview
Commercial Metals Company, Argan Inc., Pony AI Inc., and USA Rare Earth Inc. earnings will be closely monitored by investors as supply chain
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Last updated: Thursday, March 26, 2026
Quick overview
- Investors are closely watching earnings from Commercial Metals Company, Argan Inc., Pony AI Inc., and USA Rare Earth Inc. amid ongoing supply chain and industrial demand concerns.
- The Iran-US-Israel conflict highlights a disparity between public defiance from Iran and quiet diplomatic efforts, with Tehran maintaining strict conditions for negotiations.
- Despite hardline rhetoric, backchannel negotiations are reportedly gaining momentum, suggesting potential flexibility from Iran behind closed doors.
- Market reactions remain volatile, with oil prices fluctuating and U.S. economic data indicating rising inflationary pressures, complicating the outlook for investors.
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MARKETS TREND
Commercial Metals Company, Argan Inc., Pony AI Inc., and USA Rare Earth Inc. earnings will be closely monitored by investors as supply chains, industrial demand, and growth continue to be priorities.
Public Defiance vs Quiet Diplomacy
The latest developments in the Iran–US–Israel conflict reveal a growing gap between public rhetoric and behind-the-scenes diplomacy. On the surface, Iran continues to project a firm stance. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has reiterated that Tehran will not engage in direct negotiations with the United States unless key conditions are met, including a permanent ceasefire, guarantees against future conflict, and compensation for damages.
Iranian officials have emphasized that indirect communication through intermediaries does not constitute formal negotiation, reinforcing the narrative that any agreement must be reached on Iran’s terms.
Strategic Pressure Through Chokepoints
At the same time, Iran is strengthening its deterrence strategy. Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf warned that any ground incursion could trigger significant escalation, including strikes on critical infrastructure.
Tehran is also leveraging its control over key global shipping routes. While the Strait of Hormuz remains partially open, access is tightly managed, with restrictions targeting US- and اسرائیل-linked vessels. Iran has further signaled it could disrupt the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if tensions escalate, underscoring its ability to influence global trade flows without fully halting them.
Backchannel Negotiations Gain Momentum
Despite the hardline messaging, quiet diplomatic efforts are intensifying. The United States is reportedly working through intermediaries such as Pakistan and Turkey to explore a potential off-ramp.
Senior officials, including Vice President JD Vance, are expected to play a role in any talks. While Iran has not formally accepted negotiations, it has also not outright rejected proposals—suggesting room for flexibility behind closed doors.
Meanwhile, the White House has indicated that progress is being made, even as public statements remain cautious and at times contradictory.
Military Pressure and Narrowing Timelines
The United States and Israel are maintaining pressure while leaving space for diplomacy. Reports suggest certain Iranian officials have been temporarily removed from target lists, signaling a short window for negotiations.
At the same time, Israel is reportedly working within a limited operational window to target strategic assets, increasing urgency and the risk of escalation before any agreement is reached.
Adding to speculation, Donald Trump may announce a ceasefire soon—even without a formal deal. While this could ease market tensions in the short term, it raises questions about the durability of any de-escalation.
Market Reaction and Economic Signals
Markets are reflecting this uncertainty. Oil prices remain volatile, trading near intraday highs but still lower on the day as traders weigh supply risks versus potential diplomatic breakthroughs. Partial easing of restrictions in Hormuz has provided some relief, though conditions remain fragile.
At the same time, U.S. economic data shows rising inflationary pressure. February import prices surged +1.3%, well above expectations, with broad-based increases beyond energy. This suggests inflation was already building before geopolitical tensions intensified, adding another layer of complexity for markets and policymakers.
Earnings Calendar Highlights (Thursday)
Thursday’s earnings lineup offers a diverse snapshot of the global economy, spanning industrial metals, energy infrastructure, autonomous technology, and critical minerals.
While these are not mega-cap names, their results could provide important signals on underlying economic trends, particularly around AI investment, infrastructure demand, and supply chain resilience.
Commercial Metals Company (CMC)
- Expected EPS: $1.30
- Market Cap: ~$6.9B
Key Focus:
- Steel demand trends amid global infrastructure spending
- Margin pressure from input costs and energy prices
- Exposure to construction cycles and U.S. economic strength
Pony AI Inc. (PONY)
- Expected EPS: $0.22
- Market Cap: ~$4.9B
Key Focus:
- Progress in autonomous driving commercialization
- Partnerships and regulatory developments
- AI investment outlook and burn rate sustainability
After Market Close (AMC)
Argan Inc. (AGX)
- Expected EPS: $1.98
- Market Cap: ~$6.0B
Key Focus:
- Power infrastructure and energy project pipeline
- Backlog growth and execution timelines
- Exposure to energy transition and grid expansion
Other Notable Mentions
Aegon Ltd. (AEG)
- Market Cap: ~$14B
Focus on:
- Insurance margins and capital returns
- Interest rate sensitivity and investment income
USA Rare Earth Inc. (USAR)
- Expected EPS: -0.12
- Market Cap: ~$3.6B
Key Focus:
- Rare earth supply chain developments
- Strategic positioning amid geopolitical tensions
- Progress on domestic production capabilities
📌 Key Themes to Watch
Industrial Demand:
- Companies like Commercial Metals and Argan provide insight into construction, infrastructure, and energy spending trends.
- Tech & Technology Expansion:
- Pony AI highlights ongoing investment in autonomous systems and AI commercialization, a key market theme.
Critical Minerals & Geopolitics: - USA Rare Earth remains tied to supply chain security and strategic resource development, especially amid global tensions.
Macro Sensitivity:
Across all names, investors will be watching for cost pressures, demand outlook, and capital allocation strategies in a volatile environment. In the current market environment—marked by geopolitical uncertainty and shifting monetary expectations—forward guidance will likely matter more than headline earnings, with investors focused on visibility, stability, and execution going into the next quarter.
Gold Rebounds Off the 200 SMA
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate cut comments, as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. In December, gold jumped above $4,380 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $4,004. The 20o daily SMA (purple) held as support this week and buyers returned and pushed XAU above the $4,500 and above the 100 SMA (gray).
USD/JPY Rebounds
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. However, the new BOJ governor the JPY has weakened and USD/JPY soared to 154 and we decided to close our buy signal for more than 80 pips as the pair found support at the 20 daily SMA (gray) and has rebounded more than 200 pips off that MA but reversed after the 25 bps rate cut from the FED. The price approached $160 but reversed after the BOJ meeting and fell 8 cents but found support at $152 at the 100 daily SMA (red) and rebounded above 156 but have reversed down again this week after the Japanese elections.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Rebounds Off the 50 SMA
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $80K before finding support at the 100 weekly SMA (green). A rebound followed, sending BTC near $100 is the first major text for Bitcoin buyers. However BTC returned lower and fell below $80K, breaking below the but the 100 weekly SMA (green) but the decline stopped at the $60K support where the 200 weekly SMA (purple) stands and rebounded to $74K.
BTC/USD – Daily Chart
Ethereum Returns to $2,000
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. Last week we saw a dive below $2,000 but buyers returned n d pushed the price above $2K again.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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