Silver Price Forecast: Can XAG/USD Hold $67–$71 Support Ahead of Powell and NFP?
Silver (XAG/USD) opened the week of March 30, 2026, trading between $68 and $71 per ounce. The price is holding...
Quick overview
- Silver (XAG/USD) is currently trading between $68 and $71 per ounce, having fallen 40-44% from its January high of $121.64.
- Key macro factors influencing silver prices include a hawkish Federal Reserve, a strengthening US dollar, and reduced industrial demand due to economic slowdown concerns.
- Technical analysis indicates a bearish structure, with $71.80 to $72 as a critical resistance level and $67.34 as the key support zone.
- Despite short-term bearishness, long-term fundamentals remain strong, with expectations of a sixth consecutive supply deficit and potential price targets as high as $135.
Silver (XAG/USD) opened the week of March 30, 2026, trading between $68 and $71 per ounce. The price is holding just above a key demand zone after falling 40 to 44% from its January all-time high of $121.64. Powell is scheduled to speak today, and Nonfarm Payrolls will be released on Friday. These two events will likely determine if silver rebounds toward $74 or drops to test the $61 to $65 support area.
Why Silver Has Collapsed 40% From Its All-Time High
Three main macro factors have driven the recent selloff.
First, the Federal Reserve has shifted to a more hawkish stance. At the start of 2026, markets expected three rate cuts, but now expect none. The chance of a May cut has dropped from 60% to just 16% after Powell’s recent comments.
Second, the US dollar has strengthened, mainly due to increased oil demand from the Strait of Hormuz crisis. This makes it harder for dollar-priced silver to gain value.
Third, silver is different from gold because it has a large industrial use. If high energy prices signal an economic slowdown, demand for silver in manufacturing drops, which puts more pressure on silver prices compared to gold.
The gold-silver ratio is now about 65 to 1, which is unusually high. In past cycles, when this ratio narrowed, silver often outperformed during recoveries.
XAG/USD Technical Analysis: Bearish Structure With a Key Test Ahead
The 4-hour chart shows a setup that looks clear but calls for caution.
Silver is trading around $70.86, staying below a downward trendline that started from the March price spike. The 50-period moving average at $71.87 is sloping down and is below the 200-period average near $78.74, which adds to the selling pressure in the medium term. The $67.34 demand zone has supported prices for three sessions, but there has not been much buying after that.
The RSI is at 52, which is neutral. It has bounced back from oversold levels but does not yet show enough momentum for a reversal. The price pattern is making lower highs, which suggests sellers are still in control rather than buyers.
$71.80 to $72 is the key resistance level to watch this week. If silver breaks above the downward trendline here, it could move up to $74.21 and then $79.66. If it fails to break through, attention will return to $67.34, and there is a risk of falling further toward $61.55, which would erase all of 2026’s gains.
Trade idea with a short bias: Consider selling near the $71.80 resistance, set a stop above $74.20, and aim for a target of $67.30.
Four Macro Events That Will Move Silver This Week
Monday March 30 — Powell speaks. If he sounds hawkish, it will support expectations for no rate cuts, strengthen the dollar, and put pressure on silver. If he takes a softer tone and mentions the February NFP decline, silver could rally toward $74.
Wednesday, April 1: ADP Payrolls and ISM Manufacturing PMI are released. If ADP is weak and ISM comes in below 50, markets may expect a weak NFP and a softer dollar, which would be positive for silver.
Friday, April 3 (Good Friday): US Nonfarm Payrolls will be released. This is the key event of the week. If the NFP is weak, the dollar could fall and rate cut hopes may rise, possibly pushing silver up to $74 or $75. If the report is strong, with more than 100,000 jobs added, it would support a hawkish outlook and could push silver below $67.34.
Any new headlines about Iran could cause sharp price swings in silver during the day, in either direction.
The Long-Term Case: Sixth Consecutive Supply Deficit
Even though the short-term outlook is bearish, silver’s fundamentals are still strong. The market is expected to have its sixth straight annual supply deficit, with a projected shortfall of 67 million ounces in 2026. Industrial demand from solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI data centers now makes up more than half of total silver use, and these buyers are not very sensitive to price changes.
JP Morgan expects silver to average $81 per ounce in 2026. Bank of America sees a possible target of $135 if the gold-silver ratio narrows. UBS also remains positive on silver as a real asset. The main question is timing: the long-term bull case is still strong, but there are real macro challenges and the technical picture is still bearish.
FAQ: Silver Price – Weekly Outlook, Powell Risk, and NFP Impact
Why is silver underperforming gold in March 2026? Silver’s industrial demand, which is over half of its total use, makes it more sensitive to worries about an economic slowdown than gold. As the Iran conflict pushes oil prices higher and increases recession risks, silver faces two challenges at once: tighter monetary policy hurts its safe-haven appeal, and growth concerns weigh on its industrial demand.
What is the key support level for XAG/USD this week? $67.34 is the immediate demand zone being tested. Below that, $65 is the next technical target, with the structural floor near $61.55. A sustained break below $67.34 would signal a more significant breakdown and could accelerate toward $61 before any meaningful buying emerges.
How does NFP data affect silver prices? Nonfarm Payrolls reports have a direct impact on expectations for Fed rate cuts. If the number is weak, below 50,000, the dollar usually weakens and hopes for rate cuts rise, making silver more attractive. If the number is strong, above 100,000, it supports the idea of higher rates for longer, which is a negative for silver. Since silver has already dropped over 40%, even a small drop in the dollar from a weak NFP could trigger a quick rebound as traders cover short positions.
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