USAR And TMC Stock Risk Breakdown as Weak Earnings Offset NOAA Regulatory Boost
USA Rare Earth and The Metals Company surged on regulatory optimism, but weak earnings have reversed gains and put key support levels...
Quick overview
- USA Rare Earth and The Metals Company experienced a surge in early March due to regulatory optimism, but weak earnings have led to a reversal of gains.
- Both companies reported significant net losses in Q4 2025, undermining investor confidence and putting key support levels at risk.
- Despite the challenges, The Metals Company emphasizes the long-term potential of its deep-sea mining assets, which could contain vast quantities of critical minerals.
- The stocks are currently testing important technical support levels, and a break below these could lead to further declines as investors reassess their financial outlook.
USA Rare Earth and The Metals Company surged on regulatory optimism, but weak earnings have reversed gains and put key support levels at risk.
Early March Rally Loses Momentum
Shares of USA Rare Earth and The Metals Company rallied in early March, driven by renewed investor interest in strategic minerals and supportive regulatory developments.
The catalyst came from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which confirmed that TMC’s application for exploration and commercial recovery permits met key regulatory requirements under the Deep Seabed Hard Mineral Resources Act.
This update initially boosted sentiment around deep-sea mining and critical mineral supply chains. However, the rebound proved short-lived, with both stocks now reversing lower as fundamentals take center stage.
Weak Earnings Weigh on Sentiment
Recent earnings releases from both companies have pressured share prices and undermined confidence.
USA Rare Earth reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.64 million alongside a net loss of $50.21 million and an adjusted EPS loss of $0.19. The stock dropped sharply following the results, despite progress on its Stillwater, Oklahoma magnet facility, which is expected to begin commercial production in Q2 2026.
Similarly, The Metals Company posted a Q4 net loss of $40.4 million, widening significantly from the previous year due to higher exploration and administrative costs. While the company maintains a solid liquidity position of $162 million, profitability remains distant, with commercial production targeted for 2028.
These results highlight the capital-intensive nature of the sector and the long timelines required to generate meaningful returns.
Stock Volatility and Technical Recovery
The recent rally comes after months of turbulence for TMC shares. Throughout the second half of 2025, the stock faced heavy selling pressure due to regulatory delays, political opposition, and ongoing environmental debates surrounding deep-sea mining.
By November 2025, shares had dropped below $5, a level many investors viewed as a capitulation point.
TMC Chart Daily – Facing the 100 SMA
From those lows, the stock staged a strong recovery as sentiment improved. The rally accelerated into early 2026, with TMC briefly trading above $10 after gaining nearly 50% in just a few sessions. However, the surge proved short-lived, and the stock quickly retraced much of the move, breaking below the 50 weekly SMA (yellow). Now the stock is testing the 100 weekly SMA (green) above $4 and if this zone breaks, then $3 comes next.
USAR Chart Weekly – The Uptrend Is Over
USAR stock price is facing a similar fate, it soared in September to $44 but couldn’t hold the gains and retreated to the 100 weekly SMA at $12 which acted as support. We saw another surge in January 2026, but sellers returned again and now USAR is facing the 100 weekly SMA (green) as well. If this moving average breaks, then USAR might head under $10.
-
- Revenue: $1.64 million (Q4), driven by early commercial production.
- Net Loss: $50.21 million (Q4), widened from $6.8 million in the same quarter last year.
- Full Year Loss: $297.56 million net loss for 2025, reflecting heavy R&D and commissioning costs.
- Stock Reaction: Shares dropped to $15.42 following the announcement and operational updates.
- Funding: Secured $1.5 billion in PIPE funding to support expansion and the acquisition of Less Common Metals (LCM).
- Production: The company is focusing on its Phase 1a magnet facility in Stillwater, Oklahoma, preparing for customer orders in Q2 2026.
- Integration: Acquired UK-based Less Common Metals (LCM) to secure the rare earth supply chain.
- Future: Aims to accelerate the Round Top Project to 2028.
-
- Net Loss (Q4): $40.4 million, or -$0.08 per share.
- Net Loss (Full Year 2025): $319.84 million, up from $81.94 million in 2024.
- Revenue: $0.00 reported for Q4 2025.
- Liquidity: $162 million in cash and cash equivalents at year-end, with roughly $110M+ expected to be remaining by March 2026.
- Commercial Timeline: The Metals Company continues to target commercial production by early 2028, with system commissioning planned for Q4 2027.
- Operational Focus: The company is advancing a pre-feasibility study for a 12 Mtpa processing hub in Texas.
- Market Reception: The stock dropped ~6.51% in premarket trading following the report due to higher-than-expected costs, despite holding enough cash for at least the next 12 months.
- Upcoming Costs: Analysts suggest future earnings will continue to show losses as the company invests in regulatory approvals and technology development.
Large Resource Potential Remains a Key Driver
Despite near-term challenges, The Metals Company continues to highlight the long-term potential of its deep-sea mining assets. Its subsidiary has submitted an expanded application covering approximately 65,000 square kilometers in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone in the Pacific Ocean.
This region is believed to contain vast quantities of polymetallic nodules rich in nickel, cobalt, copper, and manganese—materials critical for batteries and clean energy technologies. Estimates suggest the area could hold over 600 million tonnes of resources, with additional upside from further exploration.
Outlook: Technical Levels in Focus
While the long-term demand for critical minerals remains strong, near-term sentiment is being driven by earnings performance and execution risks.
With both stocks now pulling back, key technical support levels are coming into focus. A break below these levels could trigger further downside, as investors reassess the balance between long-term potential and near-term financial realities.
Until clearer progress on profitability and commercialization emerges, USAR and TMC are likely to remain volatile despite their strategic importance in the global resource landscape.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
- Read our latest reviews on: Avatrade, Exness, HFM and XM
Related Articles
Sidebar rates
Related Posts
Save