Gold Price Forecast: Will Trump’s “3-Week Offensive” Deadline Ignite a $4,805 Recovery or a $4,368 Crash?

Quick overview

The gold market (XAU/USD) is facing a crucial turning point as of Wednesday, April 1, 2026. Spot gold has steadied around $4,717 to $4,727, bouncing back by 1.5% in a single day after a tough March, when it lost more than 13% of its value. This was gold’s worst monthly drop since October 2008.

Investors are waiting for a major Presidential Address tonight, where Donald Trump is expected to announce a two-to-three week plan to end the Iran offensive. Normally, signs of easing tensions would push gold prices down. However, the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz and record-high oil prices are keeping gold above the key $4,500 level.

The “Trump Factor”: Diplomacy vs. The 3-Week Deadline

Market sentiment is shifting quickly due to conflicting headlines from both the White House and Tehran:

• President Trump is set to address the nation tonight. Early reports indicate he will say the U.S. military could end its offensive in two to three weeks, and that responsibility for reopening the Strait of Hormuz will shift to the countries that rely on it for oil.
• Iran’s Defiance: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated today that there are currently “no grounds for negotiations,” despite rumors of direct messages being exchanged via U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff.
• According to The Wall Street Journal, the UAE is preparing to help the U.S. and its allies open the Strait by force. If military operations start at 8:00 p.m. Tehran time tonight, this could cause a new spike in market volatility.

Central Bank “Liquidation”: Russia Sells Gold for the First Time in 25 Years

A major change is affecting gold’s long-term outlook. For the first time in more than twenty years, major central banks are moving from buying gold to selling it:

• Russia’s Budget Plug: The Central Bank of Russia has started selling physical gold bars to help cover its growing budget deficit. Data shows Russia sold 500,000 ounces in January and February, bringing its reserves down to a four-year low.
• Turkey’s Lira Defense: There are rumors that Turkey may borrow against its gold reserves at the Bank of England to support the Lira, which has reached 11 record lows since the Iran conflict started.
• The “Energy Hedge”: Analysts at Natixis say central banks are now selling gold to pay for emergency energy purchases and to reduce the impact of rising oil prices on their currencies.

Gold Rebounds From $4,368 Base as Fibonacci Zone Attracts Buyers

On the daily chart, gold (XAUUSD) is steady near $4,717 after falling sharply from its $5,500 peak. The price found strong support between $4,368 and $4,400, which matches the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement and shows signs of buyers stepping in. The rebound has lifted the price above $4,668 (0.5 Fib), which now serves as immediate support.

Recent candlestick patterns show a move from heavy selling to a more controlled recovery, but the price is still below the 50-SMA near $4,800, so the overall outlook remains cautious. The 200-SMA around $4,240 is still a key long-term support. The RSI has risen from oversold levels to about 47, which means momentum is getting better but is not yet strong.

If gold moves above $4,805 (0.618 Fib), the recovery could continue toward the $4,995 resistance level. But if it falls below $4,668, prices could drop again.

Trade idea: Consider buying above $4,720 with a target of $4,805 and a stop below $4,600.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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