Silver Surges Toward $73 as Hormuz Tensions Clash with Dollar Strength – What’s Next?

Quick overview

Silver is trading around $72-$73 an ounce on April 6 2026 and showing some pretty mild downside pressure – we’re talking 0.7% to 1.3% over recent sessions. The dual-purpose metal (its both a store of value and a base for making other things) has managed to recover about 18% from 2026 lows but still lags far behind that January peak that saw silver hit $120-$121. Right now, its just sort of stuck , with spot prices bouncing around in a pretty tight range between $72.25 and $73.02.

This all looks pretty familiar compared to gold but things get a lot more volatile in silver because of its close connections to safe-haven values and industrial uses – especially in things like solar panels, electric cars and electronics

Why isn’t silver doing much better right now?

Well, the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz issues are fuelling a rise in prices, but a stronger dollar – and we’re talking a dollar that got a boost from solid jobs numbers and fewer expected Fed rate cuts – is creating a bit of a balancing act and making silver more expensive for people who don’t use the dollar.

Geopolitical Risks and a Stronger Dollar Create Conflicting Pressures

We’re seeing ongoing US-Iran tensions and worries about a disruption to the Strait of Hormuz keep sparking price movements in commodity markets. Oil is currently trading above $110 a barrel which has helped to cement the dollar as a go-to safe haven – which in turn is adding more selling pressure on silver, since its denominated in dollars.

President Trump’s latest comments on securing the strait have helped to create a risk-off atmosphere in the early part of the trading day in Asia on April 6 and on top of that we’ve had news of a job market in the US that’s doing pretty well and that’s led to a re-think of Federal Reserve policy – which in turn has helped to fuel dollar strength. Silver has been propped up at supports near $69-$70, and then levelled out in this current zone, with the relative thinness of the market at the moment just making some of the swings feel a little more amplified than they would be normally. But so far, we’ve seen some decent buying coming in to try and catch any falls.

The Gold-Silver Ratio is Warning of Silver’s Relative Underperformance

The ratio of gold to silver has been widening out, trading around 62:1 to 64:1 – and that’s drawing some attention from traders who are trying to spot potential trades that could mean-revert at some point.

Gold’s purely benefiting from safe-haven flows, but silver is getting hit from a couple of different angles – there’s the potential for a bit of a slowdown in industrial demand linked to economic uncertainty, and that of course is something to worry about. But longer-term, there’s still a lot of supporting factors: analysts are saying we’re looking at a sixth consecutive year of silver supply deficits in 2026, and demand from the likes of solar panels, electric vehicles and electronics is still good.

J.P. Morgan is maintaining a 2026 price target of $81 an ounce – and that says a lot about the confidence they have in these fundamentals once we get past the short-term volatility.

Technical Analysis: Silver’s Testing a Key Trendline

Now let’s take a look at the four-hour chart for silver. Its showing some resilience, consolidating around $72.29 after trying to break through some resistance near $76.44. The price is re-testing a major trendline that’s been guiding the market higher since the middle of March – and that’s a pretty key line in the sand.

The 50-period moving average is sitting at $72.57 while the 200-period average is acting as resistance a bit higher up at $77.58.

Key Silver Price Levels to Watch (April 2026)

A close above $73 would be a good sign of renewed buying intent – and we could be looking at targets of $77.50 or higher. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 49 at the moment – and that puts it right on the neutral midline – which is a sign of a market that’s coiled and ready to break once a fresh catalyst comes along.

Three Key Elements Traders Are Keeping an Eye On This Week

• Any new developments in the Middle East and how they affect dollar strength
• Shifts in the gold-silver ratio and the opportunities that might offer for mean-reversion trades
• Any broad macro signals – especially from the Federal Reserve on interest rates and liquidity

Short-term Caution vs a more Constructive Longer-term Outlook for Silver

At the moment the short-term outlook for silver is a bit of a mixed bag. We’ve got downside risks from a stronger dollar and the potential for a more hawkish Fed – but at the same time we’ve got all this geopolitical uncertainty that could just reignite safe-haven demand and send prices bouncing upwards. Some of the technical patterns we’re seeing might look like they could be a bear flag – but others are saying that we could actually be looking at a base that could turn into a rebound if support holds.

Longer-term, things are looking pretty good for silver: we’re still seeing supply deficits – and industrial demand is strong, especially in areas like solar and EVs. Any de-escalation that takes the heat off the dollar – or escalation that really sparks safe-haven flows – could be an opportunity for silver to show its strength.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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