Bitcoin Surges Above $72,000 as US CPI Hits 3.3% and Rate Cut Odds Collapse to Near Zero

Quick overview

Bitcoin soared above $72,000 on 10th April 2026 after the US released some pretty alarming inflation numbers. The Consumer Price Index had jumped 3.3% on the year – keeping inflation firmly above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target – & sending shockwaves through the markets, making everyone wonder if the Fed is going to change its tune on monetary policy.

Why is Bitcoin going crazy on hot inflation data ?

Now the markets are convinced the Fed won’t be raising interest rates at the FOMC meeting coming up – with a whopping 98.4% of traders using the CME FedWatch Tool putting bets on no rate hike. This might sound counter-intuitive given high inflation should usually make traders think the Fed will cut rates to stimulate the economy, but Bitcoin has been flying despite this – as traders are actually expecting a whole lot of uncertainty in the policy space and long-term concerns that the central bank is going to wear down the value of the currency.

The Inflation Breakdown

Here are some of the numbers the US Bureau of Labor Statistics crunched up:

• The CPI went up 3.3% over the year and 0.9% in the past month.
• The cause of the rise was mainly due to energy costs, with the energy index roaring up by nearly 11% and gas prices going through the roof by 21.2%.
• The core CPI ( ignoring food and energy prices ) actually eased slightly to 2.6% over the year, which is a tad lower than the 2.7% traders were expecting.

The contrast shows that while external shocks from energy are really starting to get out of hand, the underlying price pressures might actually be starting to calm down.

How Macro-Friendly is Bitcoin

By the time this was written, Bitcoin was trading at around $72,780 – up 1% in 24 hours and a whopping 9% over the past week. This is a pretty clear sign that Bitcoin is becoming more and more linked to the performance of the wider US economy and any signs of inflation or monetary policy shenanigans.

The move follows a solid reclaiming of the previous resistance at the $70,600-$72,000 zone – and now it’s consolidating just below the $73,800 mark ( which roughly translates to a 1.272 Fib extension).

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Technical Analysis

Looking at the 4H chart, the price of Bitcoin has been making a series of higher lows since the end of March – all of which have been supported by a ascending trend line. The 50 EMA has crossed over the 200 EMA at the $69,600-$70,300 zone, and the RSI is sitting above 60, which is a good sign that the buying pressure is still going strong without getting too carried away.

Key Levels To Watch:

• Resistance: $73,800 → $76,100 (1.618 extension)
• Support: $72,000 → $70,600

Forecast: Expect a bull run above $73,800 and eyeing $76,100 if it breaks through; but if it fails to break through, it might be stuck in a short term consolidation around $72,000-$70,600.

The near-term direction of Bitcoin is going to be influenced by what happens with inflation, the state of the Fed, how energy prices continue to fluctuate and how global investors feel about taking on risk. All of these factors are making Bitcoin one of the most volatile assets in global markets.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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