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AUD/USD EMA Crossover – Quick Intraday Trade Idea!

Posted Friday, January 29, 2021 by
Arslan Butt • 2 min read

The AUD/USD pair closed at 0.76766, after placing a high of 0.76975, and a low of 0.75917. In the early trading hours of Thursday, the AUD/USD pair dropped to its lowest level since December 29; however, the comeback of the risk appetite in the market reversed the direction of the AUD/USD pair, and it ended its day with minor gains.

The pair managed to post gains on Thursday, after a day with long losses, amid the turnaround of the risk flow in the market and the poorer-than-expected GDP data from the US side, that was awaited with anticipation by the market.

On the US data front, at 18:30 GMT, the Advance GDP for the quarter came in, indicating a weakening to 4.0%, against the predicted 4.2%, weighing on the US dollar and adding further to the gains in the AUD/USD pair. Last week, the Unemployment Claims dropped to 847K, against the predicted 880K, supporting the US dollar and capping any further upside in the AUD/USD pair. The Goods Trade Balance for December weakened to -82.58B, against the predicted -83.4B, which supported the US dollar and limited the upside for the AUD/USD pair.
In December, the Prelim Wholesale Inventories also weakened to 0.1%, against the predicted 0.5%, lending support to the US dollar. At 18:32 GMT, the Advance GDP Price Index for the quarter came in, showing a drop to 2.0%, against the predicted 2.2%, weighing on the US dollar and providing strength to the rising AUD/USD pair. At 20:00 GMT, the CB Leading Index for December was released, coming in line with the prediction of 0.3%. The New Home Sales in the US for December weakened to 842K, against the predicted 860K, weighing on the US dollar and pushing the AUD/USD pair. From the Australian side, at 05:30 GMT, the Import Prices for the quarter came in, indicating a drop to -1.0%, against the expected -0.9%.

During the initial trading hours on Thursday, the strength of the US dollar, amid the risk-averse market sentiment, weighed heavily on the AUD/USD pair. The mixed clues from the equities, US-China jitters and fears surrounding the delay in vaccinations, kept the risk sentiment under pressure, dragging the pair to its lowest level in one month.
However, the pair managed to recover all of its daily losses, ending its day with minor gains, as Wall Street Indexes started to rise and risk flows entered the market. The US Treasury yields also rose for the day, providing a boost to the risk-on market mood. The latest updates suggesting cures for new variants of the coronavirus also added strength to the risk appetite on the market. They supported the risk-sensitive Australian dollar, ultimately adding gains to the AUD/USD pair on Thursday.

Daily Technical Levels
Support           Resistance
0.7615              0.7737
0.7569              0.7811
0.7494              0.7858
Pivot Point:     0.7690

The AUD/USD pair is trading at 0.7653, holding mostly above an immediate support level of 0.7641. On the higher side, the resistance remains at the 0.7700 level. The 10 & 20 periods EMA support a buying trend, along with the RSI, which is also supporting a bullish bias in the pair. The idea is to remain bullish over the 0.7640 level, with a resistance level of 0.7703. Below 0.7641, we could see selling trades targeting the 0.7594 level today. Good luck!

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