S&P500 Price Forecast: 5224 Resilient Amid Rate Hike Fears

The S&P 500's recent volatility mirrors investor trepidation as they navigate the unsteady tides of Federal Reserve policy expectations.

Arslan Butt•Thursday, March 21, 2024•2 min read

The S&P 500’s recent volatility mirrors investor trepidation as they navigate the unsteady tides of Federal Reserve policy expectations. Despite attaining a new peak, the index has felt the weight of inflation concerns and the potential for interest rate hikes.

The anticipation centers on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate projections—the “dot plot”—which are critical for gauging the trajectory of future rates. The Fed’s policy announcement, coupled with Chair Powell’s explanatory press conference, remains pivotal for the SPX forecast, with proceedings commencing at 18:00 GMT.

Despite expectations of persistent inflation compelling the Fed to sustain higher interest rates, the SPX’s dip reflects worries about continued price surges possibly provoking even steeper rate hikes. This sentiment is exacerbated by last week’s robust US consumer and producer inflation data, stoking speculation that the Fed may uphold its elevated rate regime.

Inflation data pressure SPX as Fed holds rates steady, signaling potential future hikes.
Fed officials raise growth and inflation forecasts, suggesting ongoing rate battle.
SPX’s fortunes tied to Fed’s inflation-fighting resolve amid high borrowing costs.

Nonetheless, the market retains an undercurrent of optimism, buoyed by strong economic indicators, corporate earnings, and progress on global issues. This positive risk tone lends a degree of support to the SPX amidst its declines. The resilience of investor sentiment toward economic recovery and corporate earnings, alongside fiscal stimulus prospects, is a testament to the market’s underlying strength.

Thus, while the S&P 500’s forecast is tempered by immediate monetary policy challenges, broader economic fundamentals offer a counterbalance, suggesting a complex but potentially robust pathway ahead for the index.

S&P500 (SPX) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

The S&P 500 index showed fortitude, closing up at 5224.63, a gain of 0.89%. Traders have set their sights on the pivot point at 5185.55, the green demarcation on the chart, which is currently acting as a springboard for price action. Resistance levels lie ahead at 5231.37, 5279.23, and 5327.57, marking potential targets for upward price movements.

Conversely, the index finds support at 5136.89, with further potential cushions at 5100.15 and 5058.36 to stem any declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 66, indicating heightened buying interest, and the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 5094.81 confirms an ongoing upward trend. The current technical outlook is bullish, as long as the index remains above the 5185.55 pivot; a dip below could signal a trend reversal and precipitate a sell-off.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.