Quick overview

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With a technical setup hinting at heightened volatility and growing optimism on prediction markets, Bitcoin finds itself at a crucial crossroads that could shape its price trajectory for the second half of the year.

Although Bitcoin’s price appears to have entered a phase of relative calm, speculative activity around the leading cryptocurrency is accelerating rapidly. BTC is trading around $105,100 on Binance, with daily volume exceeding $47 billion, maintaining its dominance in the crypto ecosystem. A marginal 0.2% drop on the day hasn’t prevented the market from splitting between those anticipating an upside breakout and those warning of a potential correction.

Bitcoin Price Projection

On prediction platforms like Polymarket, sentiment is clearly bullish. The most popular bet forecasts Bitcoin reaching $120,000 by the end of 2025, with an implied probability of 76%—three percentage points higher than earlier this month. That prediction is backed by over $1.15 million in wagers, signaling growing confidence among traders and speculators.

Other bullish scenarios are also gaining traction: a 58% chance of BTC hitting $130,000, and a 37% probability of reaching $150,000. Even more ambitious targets like $200,000 and $250,000 are appearing in forecasts, though with lower probabilities of 16% and 7%, respectively. The possibility of Bitcoin hitting $1 million exists, but with just a 2% likelihood.

In contrast, bearish bets are more moderate. There’s a 28% chance that Bitcoin could retreat to $70,000, and a 13% probability of it falling to $50,000. Extreme downside scenarios, such as a return to $20,000, have lost traction—betting volume is so low they no longer appear in major listings.

Technical Setup Suggests Imminent Breakout

From a technical perspective, BTC is currently trading within a symmetrical triangle on the 2-hour chart—a consolidation pattern that often precedes sharp moves. While the long-term bias remains bullish, the market is nearing a potential short-term breakout. However, it remains unclear whether the move will be to the upside or downside.

For now, the broader environment remains supportive: Ethereum holds above $2,600, while altcoins like Solana, Dogecoin, and XRP are posting daily gains of 2% to 4%. Bitcoin’s market dominance remains steady, signaling that investors still trust its leadership, though they’re keeping an eye on altcoin movements.

Bitcoin Awaits a Catalyst to Define Its Next Move

Bitcoin continues in a consolidation phase, with its price compressed between key support and resistance zones. The range between $106,000 and $106,500 has become a significant barrier, with strong selling pressure and insufficient buying volume to trigger a convincing breakout. This has left the market with a short-term bias that is neutral to slightly bearish.

Meanwhile, negative exchange netflows—indicating more withdrawals than deposits—suggest that investors are accumulating for the long term, reflecting structural confidence despite the lack of short-term direction.

Technically, Bitcoin is waiting for a catalyst to determine its next move. If it can break above $106,500 with strength and volume, it could quickly rally toward the $108,000–$110,000 zone. On the other hand, a fresh rejection from that level could send the asset back to test support at $104,000, and if that fails, down toward $102,500 or even $100,000.