XAU/USD – Daily Chart
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Forex Signals Brief June 17: Focus Shifts to BoJ and U.S. Retail Sales Besides War Jitters
Markets are showing signs of relief as geopolitical anxiety around the Middle East begins to ease, turning attention to US retail sales, BOJ
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Last updated: Monday, June 16, 2025
Quick overview
- Global markets are experiencing a positive shift as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East ease, allowing investors to focus on economic fundamentals.
- U.S. and European equities have shown gains, with the S&P 500 futures rising by 1% and the Nasdaq Composite increasing by 1.5%, driven by tech shares.
- The upcoming U.S. retail sales report is anticipated to show a decline in headline sales but a modest increase in core retail sales, indicating softening consumer demand.
- In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin briefly surged past $110,000 before profit-taking brought it back toward $100,000, while Ethereum has gained 20% since April.
Live BTC/USD Chart
BTC/USD
MARKETS TREND
Markets are showing signs of relief as geopolitical anxiety around the Middle East begins to ease, with investors turning their attention to economic data and central bank signals.
Tensions Linger, But Markets Refocus
Despite ongoing unrest between Iran and Israel, global markets began the new week with a more hopeful tone. Although the geopolitical backdrop remains fragile, with reports of heavy missile exchanges and significant casualties, traders appear willing to look past the instability—for now.
Concerns over oil supply disruptions are gradually diminishing, helping risk appetite recover. The tone across markets suggests a desire to shift focus from conflict zones to fundamentals.
Stocks Climb, Dollar Slips as Week Opens
- U.S. and European equities kicked off the week on a stronger note:
- S&P 500 futures rose by 1%, attempting to rebound after last week’s pullback.
- The Nasdaq Composite surged by 1.5%, driven by renewed strength in tech shares.
European bourses posted moderate gains as risk sentiment cautiously improved.
In currency markets, the U.S. dollar weakened modestly, with EUR/USD rising from 1.1540 to 1.1614. The Australian dollar (AUD/USD) climbed over 1% to 0.6550, as bulls look to confirm a breakout above the key 0.6500 level.
Today’s Forex Market Events:
BoJ Meeting in Focus: Status Quo Expected
This week’s Bank of Japan policy meeting is unlikely to yield surprises. The central bank is broadly expected to hold rates steady at 0.5%, but markets will be watching closely for any shifts in its bond-buying strategy.
While some speculation has surfaced over a possible reduction in quarterly JGB (Japanese Government Bond) purchases to 200 billion yen, such a move is considered premature by most analysts. Instead, the BoJ is expected to maintain its cautious, incremental approach to policy normalization.
U.S. Retail Sales to Reveal Consumer Momentum
The upcoming U.S. retail sales report is another key event for investors. Headline sales are projected to decline by 0.6%, reflecting weaker auto purchases. Core retail sales, however, are seen rising by 0.2%, a modest improvement from April’s 0.1% gain.
Although consumer spending has held up better than expected in recent months, slowing demand and tariff-related uncertainty are beginning to show in the data. Economists believe this week’s numbers will point to softening, not collapsing, consumption.
Last week, markets were slower than what we’ve seen in recent months, with gold retreating as a result, the EUR/USD jumping above 1.16 but returned back below 1.15, while stock markets retreated on Friday. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Holds Firm, Bitcoin Retreats on Profit-Taking
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to find solid footing near $3,250, buoyed by falling real yields and geopolitical jitters. After reclaiming the $3,400 level last Friday, traders are now watching for a retest of April’s all-time high above $3,500.
The 50 SMA Rejects USD/JPY
In the foreign exchange markets, the USD/JPY pair saw an unusual move, climbing from 143.40 to 144.31. This wasn’t driven by interest rate differentials, but rather by capital outflows from Japan, likely tied to rising geopolitical risks and global portfolio reshuffling. Analysts suggest that flow-driven pressures are increasingly outweighing traditional macroeconomic drivers.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
BTC Rebounds Off the 50 Daily SMA Again
Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surged past $110,000, gaining over 6% earlier in the week as capital rotated into alternative stores of value. However, profit-taking near the 20-day moving average sent prices back toward the $100,000 mark but the 50 daily SMA (yellow) held as support and yesterday we saw a bounce above $108K.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Returns Below MAs
Ethereum (ETH), by contrast, showed more resilience. The recent Pectra upgrade has sparked renewed institutional interest by improving staking efficiency and wallet usability. ETH is now up 20% since April, although the 200-day moving average remains a strong technical hurdle for any sustained breakout.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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