Mexican Peso Rises After Iran-Israel Ceasefire

Technical analysts noted that breaking the psychological 19-peso level could strengthen the peso’s recovery trend.

Written by: Ignacio Teson • Tuesday, June 24, 2025 • 1 min read

• Last updated: Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Quick overview

The Mexican peso strengthened against the U.S. dollar, closing at 18.9930 pesos per dollar, up 0.80% from the previous day.
The rally was influenced by easing geopolitical tensions following a ceasefire announcement between Iran and Israel.
Investors are closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's remarks, with speculation about a potential rate cut at the July meeting.
Mexico's mid-June inflation rate was reported at 4.51% annually, aligning with expectations for a rate cut from Banxico.

The Mexican peso strengthened against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, lifted by easing geopolitical tensions and investor reaction to remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The local currency closed at 18.9930 pesos per dollar, up 0.80% from Monday’s official Banxico rate of 19.1453. During the session, the exchange rate ranged between 19.0927 and 18.9828. The dollar index (DXY), which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.43% to 97.97 points.

The peso’s rally came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, easing fears of a prolonged conflict involving the U.S. While markets welcomed the news, doubts remain over how long the truce will hold.

USD/MXN

Focus Turns to Central Banks

Investors also digested Powell’s semiannual testimony before Congress, where he reiterated that more time is needed to assess the impact of tariffs. While the Fed held rates steady last week, speculation is growing over a possible rate cut at the July meeting, with some Fed officials already signaling support.

Locally, Mexico’s mid-June inflation came in at 4.51% annually—up slightly, but still aligned with expectations of a 50-basis-point rate cut from Banxico this Thursday. That would bring the benchmark rate down to 8%, following similar moves in the past two decisions.

Technical analysts noted that breaking the psychological 19-peso level could strengthen the peso’s recovery trend. Support is seen at 18.94, with resistance at 19.13.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Ignacio Teson

Economist and Financial Analyst

Ignacio Teson is an Economist and Financial Analyst. He has more than 7 years of experience in emerging markets. He worked as an analyst and market operator at brokerage firms in Argentina and Spain.