Silver Price Forecast: Will a Sixth Year of Shortages Explode Silver Price Levels?
Silver at $77.48 is exhibiting good structural hardness with a 1.66% bounce, consolidating in a short-term base. With the greenback...
Quick overview
- Silver is currently priced at $77.48, showing a 1.66% bounce and solid technical rebound amid a short-term supply deficit.
- The global silver market is expected to face its sixth consecutive annual deficit, with a projected shortfall of 46.3 million troy ounces by 2026.
- Demand for silver remains strong due to investments in green energy technologies, despite some regional industrial slowdowns.
- A bullish trade setup is identified, with entry opportunities above $77.80 and targets set at $78.79 and $80.69.
Silver at $77.48 is exhibiting good structural hardness with a 1.66% bounce, consolidating in a short-term base. With the greenback softening locally, due to a more hawkish macro, the white metal has a very well-structured technical rebound on a blue channel uptrend to a deteriorating physical shortfall situation.
Silver Supply Deficit is Widening
The main fundamental is looking very good. Silver Institute’s 2026 World Silver Survey recently noted that the global silver market is poised for the sixth consecutive annual deficit, with a 2026 shortfall projected to be 46.3 million troy ounces in reduced supply and depleting big warehouse inventories.
Steady Green Energy Demand
While some regional industrial demand is dampening, as firms try to cut their material waste, demand for metal fabrication remains solid. Robust investment continues in solar panels, electric vehicles and massive AI computing facilities has established a well-defined physical support level.
Monetary Cross-Currents
Markets remain on the back foot as they digest the stubborn 3.8% U.S. April headline CPI figure. That figure could potentially result in a very tight policy stance for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, but a resurgence in manufacturing across Asia, along with continued robust global metal purchasing, is providing an offsetting force.
Silver Technical Analysis
The 2-hr silver chart shows a very neat and highly organized pattern. Price has defended the bottom trendline of its upward sloping blue channel and printed a few consecutive green candles following its rebound at $76.62 support.
The rebound has now found support around the 0.618 fibo at $77.40, which measured the move from a local low of $71.43 to a local high of $88.00. The 14-period RSI remains neutral at 57.48 and has crossed over 50, which signals that momentum is building but has not yet become overbought. The most recent uptrend has been confirmed by rising volume, suggesting strong institutional buying at support.
Resistance: $78.79, $80.69 (recent failure level), $88.00.
Support: $77.40 (0.618 fibo), $76.62 (channel support), $71.43.
Silver Trade Setup
Silver presents a good follow-through opportunity as prices maintain themselves inside the recently formed bullish channel.
Entry order: Buy stop above $77.80, a minor resistance area.
Target 1: $78.79.
Target 2: $80.69.
Stop loss: $76.60, a little below support.
Summary
Our silver price forecast is for a very positive trade opportunity as this asset looks poised for a major upward breakout. Declining risk premiums for safe-haven assets are being offset by the ongoing U.S.-Iran truce and monetary tightening, but that has so far failed to cause a material outflow as persistent global supply shortages exist.
Cautious investors should remain mindful of a possible short-term price fluctuation in the lead up to this week’s global PMI data. Take advantage of any dip within this channel to establish modest, risk-free positions in advance of any further updates to our end-of-year outlooks.
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