Forex Signals Brief August 1: Meta and Microsoft Lift Tech, Tariffs and Fed Concerns Pressure Markets

Quick overview

Live BTC/USD Chart

0.0000

MARKETS TREND

TRADE BTC/USD

Wall Street navigated a volatile session as strong Big Tech earnings, fresh tariff headlines, and firm inflation data clashed to shape market sentiment.

Inflation Data and Fed Caution

June’s core PCE inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month, marking the sharpest increase since February and keeping the annual rate at 2.8%, slightly above the 2.7% forecast. Rising costs in furniture, household goods, and recreational products—magnified by tariff-related pressures—highlighted the Fed’s ongoing inflation concerns.

Although the Fed anticipates that tariff-driven price increases may prove temporary, policymakers remain wary of delayed pass-through effects. Consecutive 0.3% monthly gains suggest inflation volatility could persist, cutting the probability of a September rate cut from 65% to 39%. For now, interest rates are likely to remain at 4.25%–4.50% until a more convincing disinflation trend emerges.

Market Performance and Big Tech Earnings

Markets opened sharply higher as Microsoft and Meta’s stellar results drove early NASDAQ gains of over 327 points. However, profit-taking and rate-sensitive selling reversed the optimism, leaving the NASDAQ slightly lower by the close, while the Dow, S&P, and Russell 2000 all retreated.

Even as broader indices softened, tech giants delivered outsized moves. Meta soared 11.25% to fresh records, and Microsoft climbed nearly 4%, underscoring the market’s reliance on mega-cap tech leadership. After-hours, Apple stock rose following its earnings beat, while Amazon plunged 7% as cautious guidance overshadowed a revenue beat.

Commodity and Currency Reactions

Tariff developments weighed heavily on metals. Copper prices tumbled after President Trump imposed 50% tariffs on semi-finished copper products and derivatives, effective August 1, 2025. The exclusions for scrap, concentrates, and refined cathodes caught the market by surprise, contributing to volatility.

Key Market Events Today

August 1st Tariff Deadline (Fri):

Energy Earnings on Deck

Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) are reporting Q2 2025 earnings amid a challenging energy price backdrop. Analysts expect EPS of $1.66 for Chevron and $1.49 for Exxon, both reflecting year-over-year declines exceeding 30%. Despite the weaker headline figures, both companies have a track record of exceeding forecasts, and market participants will closely monitor margins and production updates for signs of resilience.

Eurozone CPI Preview

The Eurozone’s July inflation release is expected to show a slight pullback in price pressures after June’s modest rebound. Headline HICP inflation is projected at 1.9% year-over-year, down from 2.0%, while the super-core measure—which strips out the most volatile items—is expected to ease to 2.2% from 2.3%.

June data showed headline inflation ticking up to 2.0%, while super-core held steady at 2.3% and services inflation rose to 3.3% from 3.2%. ING described the rebound as softer than anticipated after May’s “unusually low” reading. Investec now sees little reason for prices to have shifted significantly in July, with mild upward pressure from services likely offset by the firmer euro, which dampens goods prices.

Looking ahead, Eurozone inflation dynamics remain highly sensitive to the strength of the euro and to evolving trade frictions with the United States. July’s European Central Bank policy meeting emphasized a “wait-and-see” stance, with officials seeking clarity on both trade agreements and the durability of disinflation before adjusting rates.

U.S. Jobs Report Preview

The U.S. labor market will be in the spotlight with Friday’s July nonfarm payrolls report. Economists expect the economy to have added around 102,000 jobs, down from 147,000 in June. This compares to a three‑month average of 150,000 and a six‑month average of 130,000, suggesting a gradual cooling in employment growth.

The unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.2%, inching closer to the Fed’s year‑end projection of 4.5%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to increase by 0.3% month‑over‑month, up from 0.2% in June, while average workweek hours are likely to remain steady at 34.2.

Barclays analysts are more cautious than consensus, forecasting just 75,000 jobs, including a 25,000 decline in government employment, while private payrolls could modestly accelerate to around 100,000.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

Related Articles

Crypto Hacks Surge 27% in July, Reaching $142 Million as Security Threats Evolve

1 d ago

Save

Bitcoin Consolidates Above $115K, On-Chain Metrics Signal Potential Breakout Despite 18-Day Range

1 d ago

Save

Daily Crypto Signals: Bitcoin Holds Range, XRP ETF Approval Odds Surge to 85%

1 d ago

Save