Gold Price Forecast: Can $3,335 Hold Ahead of Jackson Hole & Fed Updates?
Gold fell $27 on Friday to close at $3,335 per ounce as hotter-than-expected US producer prices reignited inflation fears.
Quick overview
- Gold fell $27 to close at $3,335 per ounce due to stronger-than-expected US producer prices, reigniting inflation fears.
- Silver dipped below $38 per ounce after reaching a high of $38.70, indicating volatility in inflation-sensitive assets.
- The inflation shock has reduced expectations for a September rate cut, with futures now pricing in less than a quarter-point reduction.
- Gold is currently in a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a potential significant price movement is imminent.
Gold fell $27 on Friday to close at $3,335 per ounce as hotter-than-expected US producer prices reignited inflation fears. July’s PPI rose 0.9% month-over-month, beating forecasts and keeping the Fed cautious on cutting rates.
Silver slipped below $38 per ounce after briefly touching $38.70—its highest level since late July. Analysts say inflation-sensitive assets like precious metals are vulnerable to economic data swings.
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch summed it up: while consumer prices were quiet earlier, the surge in producer prices “reminds markets that inflation isn’t tamed yet.”
- Gold down $27 to $3,335/oz
- Silver below $38/oz
- Cause: Stronger-than-expected US producer prices
Fed Policy and Jackson Hole in Focus
The inflation shock has tempered expectations for a September rate cut. Futures now price in less than a quarter-point reduction, down from earlier bets of 50 basis points. Traders are also watching US import tariff headlines where uncertainty around possible reinstatements has kept a $50 premium between Comex gold and global spot prices.
Next week’s events will set the tone for gold:
Fed Chair Jay Powell's policy speech Friday in Jackson Hole will be the defining monetary policy event of the summer. https://t.co/qbaSw6JFcH
— Yahoo Finance (@YahooFinance) August 17, 2025
- Wed, Aug 20: FOMC Member Waller speaks; Fed Minutes released
- Thu, Aug 21: Jobless claims, Philly Fed, Manufacturing & Services PMI
- Fri, Aug 22: Fed Chair Powell speaks at the Jackson Hole Symposium
With global tariff uncertainty and the Trump-Putin summit on top of that, it’s a volatile week. A hawkish Powell could weigh on gold, while dovish signals might boost safe-haven demand.
Gold Price Forecast: Technical Outlook
Gold is in a classic symmetrical triangle since late July. Prices have been squeezing between descending resistance at $3,405 and rising support at $3,330. This is indecision, but also a build-up for a big move.
Gold is at $3,335, just below the 50-SMA at $3,348 which is immediate resistance. Candlestick action shows hesitation with small-bodied bars and long wicks, buyers and sellers are locked in a stalemate.Momentum is neutral but weak: RSI is at 41, not oversold. MACD lines are negative but the histogram is declining, sellers may be losing control.
Key levels:
- Above $3,348 could be $3,375 and $3,405.
- Below $3,329 could be $3,312 or $3,288.
For traders it’s like a spring being compressed. A confirmed break in either direction should unleash momentum. Long above $3,348 with stops under $3,329 targets $3,374-$3,405. If the lower bound breaks, shorts to $3,312-$3,288.
Gold (XAU/USD) Week Ahead
Going into Jackson Hole, gold will be sensitive to every Fed word and new inflation data. The triangle suggests a break is near but the trigger will be macro headlines. For now, patience may be the best position—because when this coil unwinds, the move will be big.
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